Is China Interested in Resolving the Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, or Is It Just Letting the West Exhaust Its Resources?
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have not only brought widespread devastation but have also significantly shifted global geopolitical dynamics. Amid these crises, China’s role remains ambiguous. Some argue that China prefers to see these conflicts persist, diverting the U.S.'s and its allies' attention and resources. Others suggest that China's limited involvement reflects an inability to exert meaningful influence. Additionally, the potential impact of these wars on China's energy supply and economic interests adds another layer of complexity to its stance.
Is China Content to See These Wars Drag On?
The prolonged nature of Ukraine and the Middle East conflicts has undoubtedly redirected American and Western focus. The United States and its allies have poured billions of dollars into supporting Ukraine and managing tensions in the Middle East, straining their financial and military resources. From China’s perspective, this diversion of attention could be strategically advantageous.
China may see an opportunity to expand its influence in other parts of the world while the West remains preoccupied. The continuation of these wars arguably weakens the West’s ability to confront China on issues such as trade, technology, and military competition in the Indo-Pacific region. However, this does not necessarily imply that China actively desires to see these wars continue indefinitely.
China’s 12-Point Peace Plan for Ukraine: Genuine Effort or Political Theater?
In February 2023, China unveiled a 12-point plan to resolve the Ukraine conflict, proposing measures such as respecting the sovereignty of all countries, abandoning the Cold War mentality, ceasing hostilities, and resuming peace talks. The plan also addressed humanitarian concerns and called for the protection of civilians and prisoners of war. However, the initiative was met with scepticism in the West, with many viewing it as lacking substance and specifics.
Critics argue that China’s peace plan was more of a political manoeuvre than a genuine attempt to mediate the conflict. For example, the plan did not explicitly condemn Russia’s invasion, a stance that aligned with China’s close partnership with Russia. Furthermore, it failed to address key issues such as the territorial integrity of Ukraine or the withdrawal of Russian troops, leading to doubts about China's seriousness in seeking a peaceful resolution.
The plan's reception and lack of follow-through raised questions about whether China was truly interested in resolving the conflict or simply seeking to position itself as a neutral mediator while quietly supporting Russia. If China's goal was to present itself as a peace broker while avoiding confrontation with either side, then the plan served its purpose without necessarily advancing any real progress toward peace.
?China's Stance on the Middle East
China has historically maintained a more hands-off approach to Middle Eastern conflicts, largely due to its principle of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs. However, the region’s strategic significance as a vital energy supplier means that China cannot afford to ignore developments there. The Middle East supplies more than half of China’s crude oil imports, making stability in the region a matter of national interest.
China has pursued diplomatic and economic strategies in the Middle East, including mediating the recent rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which marked a rare but significant diplomatic intervention. While this demonstrates China's willingness to act as a mediator when it suits its interests, it remains cautious in deeply involving itself in the region's more intractable conflicts, such as the Israeli-Palestinian issue.
Regarding the recent outbreak of conflict between Israel and Hamas, China has called for an immediate ceasefire and the protection of civilians, emphasizing a return to peace talks. Yet, it has not taken any concrete action to influence the situation beyond these statements. This cautious stance reflects China’s balancing act: maintaining its relationships with key Middle Eastern countries without becoming overly entangled in their conflicts.
Does China Benefit from the Ongoing Conflicts?
While prolonged conflicts might seem beneficial to China by diverting Western attention, they also pose risks. Disruptions to energy supplies in the Middle East could threaten China's economic stability, given its reliance on oil imports. A significant escalation of hostilities that disrupts shipping lanes or damages key oil facilities could have severe repercussions for China's economy.
Similarly, the war in Ukraine affects global markets and supply chains, including the energy and grain sectors. China has a vested interest in a stable global economy, as prolonged disruptions could harm its growth. Thus, while there may be some short-term geopolitical advantages to a distracted West, the risks associated with prolonged instability in Ukraine and the Middle East could outweigh the benefits.
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?China's Calculated Approach to Global Conflicts
China’s cautious and often ambiguous approach to these conflicts reflects a desire to protect its interests without taking on a leadership role in global conflict resolution. The country's stance is shaped by several factors:
Was China Serious About Its Peace Efforts?
While China's initiatives, such as the 12-point plan for Ukraine, suggest an interest in peace, their lack of concrete follow-through indicates a more strategic than altruistic motivation. China may be using these proposals to bolster its image as a peace-seeking nation, providing it with diplomatic leverage in future negotiations without significantly risking its relationship with any of the parties involved.
In the case of Ukraine, China’s alignment with Russia makes it challenging to adopt a more balanced stance. In the Middle East, its economic interests and principle of non-interference limit its willingness to take bold actions. In both instances, China’s actions reflect a calculated effort to balance its strategic interests rather than a committed pursuit of conflict resolution.
?China’s approach to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East is characterized by cautious diplomacy, strategic positioning, and a desire to avoid deep involvement in conflicts that could threaten its interests. While some might view this as a tacit approval for the continuation of these conflicts, it is more accurately a reflection of China’s calculated risk management. The country seeks to gain from the West’s distraction without suffering the repercussions of global instability. In this context, China’s peace efforts, such as the 12-point plan for Ukraine, seem more like diplomatic tools than sincere initiatives for conflict resolution.
As these wars continue to reshape global power dynamics, China's role may evolve, but for now, it appears content to play a peripheral yet strategically significant part in these conflicts. Whether this approach will serve its long-term interests remains an open question, as the risks of prolonged instability could eventually outweigh the benefits of a distracted West.
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