China Impact: A global leadership power shift and convergence of competing forces

By: Patrick D. Huff

This 6,726 word article is the first of a multi-chapter series that covers an ongoing investigation into a global dynamic and disruptive change that is represented by China's decision to emerge as a leader within the international community. 

Keywords: China, Impact, Economics, Leadership, Global, Power, Authority, Organization, Behavior, Worldview, Social, Political, Legal, Inter-cultural, Technology, Infrastructure

Chapter One: Introduction

China is poised to introduce sweeping innovation and change onto the global stage that has been predominately dominated by Western Europe and the United States for centuries. The emerging shift will significantly disrupt Western ideologies, economic doctrines, and the basis of power and authority for decades to come. 

This paper, attempts to explore the emerging impact from an East-Asian worldview. As such, the inquiry and its findings may be upsetting to those holding Western or Anglo-American views. Many will argue the evidence presented pertaining to leadership, power, and authority as well as the supporting inferences cannot be based on reality. To those I offer the following.

“You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of reality”,

(Ayn Rand, 1957)

Background

This dissertation proposes to explore China’s emerging global leadership and the economic affects the power shift (Tselichtchev, 2012) is imposing. The research is framed in the context of the SPELIT Power Matrix (Schmeider-Ramirez, Mallette, 2007) and the SWOT(PEST) assessment model (Humphrey, 2005). The frameworks serve as excellent assessment and analysis tools that enable the identification of diverse environmental factors as influencers of economic policy.

This study begins with the consideration of leadership and environmental changes undertaken in 1949 by the Peoples Communist Party of China (CPC) as a series of turbulent innovations imposed on the country’s social, political, economic, legal, intercultural, and technology environments. These changes are now landing China in a position of being a globally significant economic competitor and leader. Recent economic studies and trends position China’s economic growth on track to overtake the United States with the highest GDP between 2017 and 2020 (IMF, 2011; OECD, 2010; Tselichtchev, 2012; Jacques, 2006). However, a major global economic and financial analysis group announced that China’s GDP surpassed the U.S. in April 2014 when reviewed against global Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) which factors currency exchange indexes into the GDP (CEPR, 2014).

Country Brief

The government styled by the Communist Party of China (CPC), is considered by many scholars as representative of a liberalized version of Marx and Lenin’s social communistic manifesto (Heilbroner, 1991). Since 1911, China’s government is better defined as that of being uniquely Maoist and as such is not based in the writings of Marx. In fact, the current Peoples Republic of China (PRC) governance can be defined as a theoretical and ideological departure from orthodox communism or Marxism (Cohen, 2001). That said the Chinese people commonly refer to their country as being closely tied to “Mother Russia”.

The Imperial Dynasty failed in 1911 marking the end of Confucian moral order. Subsequently, between 1915 and 1919 China experienced a new cultural movement. The movement proposed the abolition of the traditions and values of the past. This movement was profoundly influenced by Mao Zedong and spearheaded by the New Youth (Cohen, 2001) . Mao developed a social-political-economic philosophy that largely incorporated and adapted Marxist constructs. 

The outcome of the 1919 Treaty of Versailles imposed a bitter nationalist resentment of Chinese intellectuals that resulted in a decision by first and second world allies (Three World Theory) to transfer portions of China’s territories and property into the hands of the Japanese government. 

Another international event having a great impact on Mao and the Chinese government was Russia’s Bolshevik (Great October Socialist) Revolution of 1917-1920 sometimes referred to as “Red October” (Acton, 1997). This proved to be a seminal event, focusing Mao's political worldview and China on addressing a revolutionary struggle between the principles of its unique form of socialism, and that of a group of elitists that are exploiting the common classes vis-a-vis a hegemonic system of government.

China’s Five Major Modern Periods

Mao framed this political focus as the “People's War". Mao’s “Intellectual” development and shift away from Marxism can be divided into five major periods:

1. The “initial” Marxist period from 1920 - 1926; 

2. The “formative” Maoist period from 1927 – 1935; 

3. The “mature” Maoism period from 1935 – 1940; 

4. The “civil war” period from 1940 – 1949; and, 

5. The “post 1949” period following the revolutionary victory (Lowe, 1966).

A Shift of Mind: From Maoism to Economic Totalitarian Policy

Shortly after Mao’s death in 1976, Deng Xiaoping started the capitalist reforms within the People’s Republic of China in 1978. Deng’s departure from Maoism was based on his philosophy of “seeking truth from facts”. Deng suggested state policies should be judged on their practical consequences. Deng also separated Mao from Maoism, making it clear that Mao was fallible and hence the “truth of Maoism” came from observing social consequences rather than from Mao’s quotations as holy writs. 

Mao himself was officially regarded by the Communist Party of China (CPC) as a “great revolutionary leader” for his role in fighting the Japanese and creating the People's Republic of China (PRC). However, Mao’s policies implemented between 1959 in 1976 are regarded by today's CPC as an economic and political disaster. After the death of Mao in 1976, a resulting power struggle in China followed as an international Maoist movement broke into three camps.

One group was composed of various ideologically nonaligned interests that supported Deng. Another group formed to denounce the new leadership as traitorous to the cause of Marxism, Leninism, and Maoism thought. Finally, a third group formed denouncing the “Three Worlds Theory” of the CPC (Zhu, 2012). 

Three World Theory: China’s Worldview

The Three World Theory constructs a first world consisting of the United States and the Soviet Union; a second world consisting of nation states controlled by the first world imperialists; and, a third world consisting of non-imperialist countries. 

The theory suggests revolutionary forces will emerge from the third world non-imperialist countries as they are not considered to be worthy of the first world imperial interests. Further, the theory implies the revolution will serve to weaken the first world imperialists. In this scenario, China considers itself to be a third world non-imperialist country (Lowe, 1966; Cohen, 2001, p. 206; CIA World Factbook, 2012).

Central Issues

Considering the growing influence of the Chinese economy on its trade partners and its competitive demands on global natural resources, its positioning as the world’s socio-economic political leader will represent a significant power shift within the world community. Such a change will likely include raising internal and external challenges to China (CIA Factbook, 2012; Cohen, 2001).

China is currently rated 2nd by the International Monetary Fund (2011) with a GDP of $7.74 trillion, a growth rate of 9.5%, and supporting a population of 1.3 billion people (20% of the world’s population) with an unemployment rate of 4.2% (2012). 

Measured Economic Power: The IMF

In 1945, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was established to foster growth and stability. This mission included establishing global economic cooperation in financial reporting, access, and the monitoring of changes in member nation wealth. Its mission is to stabilize exchange rates, maintain a global fund, and provide a uniform banking system. 

The IMF is based on constructs established by British economist John Maynard Keynes (Heilborner, 1999). As such, the IMF operates under principles and constructs similar to those established by Adam Smith in his treatise on the Wealth of Nations (1776). As of 2016, China became an active and reporting IMF member adding its renminbi to this elite basket of global currencies. Since, China has led the collective IMF league in GDP expansion. Current reports indicate China’s real GDP expansion is 8.2% (2012), and 8.8% (2013) placing the United States in 2nd place with an expansion rate of 2.1% (2012), and 2.4% (2013).

The following is an excerpt from, “Global Challenges to Financial Stability: the Global Outlook and the Role of Macro-prudential Policies”, by Min Zhu the IMF Deputy Managing Director, March, 2012, summarized.

Zhu suggests the Chinese economy is undergoing a deceleration largely reflecting a decline in external demand. Exports and related production are slowing. China's monetary policies are easing while it maintains a manageable rate of inflation. While China's financial linkages with the rest of the world are minimal, it has extensive trade linkages with Europe and the U.S. which account for nearly 50% of China's total exports. A collapse in global demand would negatively impact the China corporate and financial sector balance sheets.

This study’s findings suggest that while China is attempting to decouple from the fortunes of outside trade stakeholders, its economy is inexorably linked to these interests. Certain scenarios indicate that should financial conditions in Europe or in the United States continue to deteriorate; China’s growth could fall by up to 4% relative to their current GDP. This would in turn suggest an effective reduction of China’s current 8.2% and 8.8% GDP growth rates to that of 4.2% and 4.4% respectively for periods 2012-2017. Some global economists argue similar growth adjustments would apply should a sudden decoupling occur today (Zhu, 2012). So, whether a decoupling occurs over a period of 1-5 years or due to an abrupt event the impact to China’s economy would be about the same. These estimates say a lot about the present power of China’s economy. If these assessments are valid, it would indicate that China's current financial strength offers it policy considerations (options) that could mitigate an wide-array scenarios that could impose potentially negative impacts on its growth. It has been suggested by many analysts that China should choose to front-load its fiscal measures by incorporating a 3% GDP growth rate into its Five-Year Plan.  By doing this, China would significantly reduce the global recession impact and the vulnerability of its fiscal disposition so as to be able to weather the financial storm associated with the Europe and U.S. scenarios (Zhu, 2012). 

A similar volatility model was realized in the context of China’s fiscal strength previously when it's economy dropped by 6 1/2% upon the 2008 - 2009 failure of Lehman Brothers Holding Inc. (Investment bank) in the United States (Zhu, 2012). 

China’s fiscal policy and actions could serve to assist Europe in controlling its economic crisis to the extent of propping up its GDP to a growth of 1%. As such, China's efforts would also go a long way toward balancing global and private consumption levels. As China progresses with its Five-Year Plan, the government is taking a number of steps to reduce its economic risks (Zhu, 2012). 

Another policy that China is pursuing is an attempt to manage their internal fiscal stimulus packages which will sustain the expansion of its markets while at the same time attempting to control inflation, cool off property markets, and reduce local government borrowing for capital projects. This policy is coupled with others that are continuing to open China to increased external investments. By combining these policies, China intends to stimulate productivity and growth in the manufacturing, product, and service markets (Zhu, 2012).

Overall the study intends to provide findings that can assist scholars in gaining a different worldview, understanding, and knowledge of the areas covered by assisting in closing the literature gap. As a method of investigation and discovery, the study design incorporates a mix of emerging global surveys (big data), narratives, and critical literature extracted from Chinese scholars and a global subject matter panel of experts and non-experts using the Real-Time Delphi model. More specifically, the study seeks to identify significant findings pertaining to the problems (core study questions) by applying The Policy Delphi technique that incorporates the Delphi Conference or computer aided Real-Time Delphi (RTD) process that does not involve the use of sequential qualitative or quantitative survey rounds. As such, the study utilizes the RTD as developed in 2005 to significantly improve and shorten the data collection and analysis process (Linstone, Turoff, 2005, p.5; Turoff, 1972; Gordon, & Pease, 2006).

The Problem

At present, China’s expansion consumes over 50% of the world’s mineral resources for construction and infrastructure. In addition, it consumes over 20% of the world’s mineral resources in conjunction with its water and power requirements. Considering China’s increasing levels of expansion as conceived by the CPC’s Five-Year Plan, China’s growth interests represent a significant and negative impact to the global community as a fierce competitor for sustained economic growth against competing nations in the context of sustaining their economies and standard of living (IMF, 2014; CIA Factbook, 2012).

Second, this coupled with China’s economic trend towards overtaking the United States’ position with the world’s highest GDP poses a significant threat to the U.S. and its major stakeholders in continuing control over a common international monetary currency, financial system, and debt structure (IMF, 2014; CIA Factbook, 2012).

Some global economists would argue, implications patent to China’s rise in GDP portents a confluence of a broad spectrum of complex events that could devastate the Eastern European block, British, and the U.S. As such, this event would likely result in a significant national debt and reserve value reset resulting in further complications pertaining to U.S. economic, social, and political dominance, power, and will (IMF, 2014; CIA Factbook, 2012).

The emergence and the continued trajectory of China as a global economic leader has been one of the most influential socio-political phenomenon of this decade. While the economic growth of China has been instrumental in moving that country into global prominence, it also places enormous emphasis on the critical economic challenges China will face in the upcoming decade. As such, an expert-based knowledge of critical economic challenges that may potentially confront China in the upcoming decade are crucial to all within socio-political and economic circles.

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to determine critical economic challenges potentially faced by China over the next 10 years.   Upon concluding the collection of data, and the determination of significant findings, the author will construct from the evidence certain observations and recommendations pertaining to China’s future strategies and leadership policies. 

Research Question

Specially, this is study seeks to identify the economic challenges that are likely to be the most significant to confront China in the upcoming decade. As such, the study poses the following question:

What are the critical economic challenges potentially facing China in the next ten years, from 2014 to 2024?

Significance

China’s continued success and support of the global trade community is critical to the short-term financial and economic viability of Europe and the United States if not their long-term recovery.

Limitations

1. This study limits the research questions and investigation to the specific area of China’s economy. 

2. The study is limited to the assessment and analysis of the environment surrounding China’s economy as considered within the SPELIT Matrix Model or framework.

Delimitations

1. Conditions under the control of the author limit this study to a bound investigation. This limit is established as an investigation into the China Impact from the perspective of how certain emerging conditions will influence the people of China, her future policy, and impact on global leadership.

2. The study intends to investigate the nature of specific environmental factors as influencers on China internally and externally specific to the study’s areas of interests. In short, the study proposes to limit itself to investigating of the emergence of China as a new world power only as its emergence can be predicted to affect the Chinese people as a bounded study.

3. This study is designed as an incremental series of observations taken over several years as a longitudinal case study. This is due to the author’s work experience and passion for the study of global leadership, political, and macro socio-economics. However, the author believes it is in the best interests to scholars and the academic community to report significant findings and discoveries in near-real-time so as to maximize their benefit or contribution. As such, this longitudinal study will only report first increment findings covering the period 2012 to 2017.

Assumptions

This paper is based on assumptions set forth in Adam Smith’s, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (1776). He argues in his magnum opus that a nation’s power and authority are associated with wealth accumulation. Smith suggests a nation’s dominance springs from its ability to accumulate and control wealth as defined by labor and commodities as a collection of tradable resources. 

The economic principles and arguments put forth by Smith in 1776 remain significantly relevant and influential among prominent economists today where Smith is considered to be “the father of modern economics”. In Smith’s work, he suggests there is an “invisible hand” (Book IV, Chapter II) at work as a nation goes about accumulating wealth. Although scholarly interpretations of Smith’s meaning of the invisible hand differ widely, the paper choses to define it as a series of complex forces that drive a nation’s process to excel. As such, the author argues there are five principle elements related to the invisible hand pertinent to a nation creating wealth. The author defines these basic elements as the following: 

1. Population, scale and stability; 

2. Economy, balance of trade, capital reserve, and currency value; 

3. Food Supply, natural resources; 

4. Energy, fuel resources and supply; 

5. Military Power, projectibility (See Figure 1). 

Each of these elements is driven by environmental factors. We will call them “influencers”.

As many economists argue, complex environmental forces may be considered as driving influencers associated with generating a sustained passion and focus towards a set of desired goals and in determining power, authority, control, and security. 

In the case of China, this author argues the country’s increase in wealth, authority, and control are causational to a desire to secure its own future (destiny) within the global community. Many economic theorists suggest, that as China imposes its current economic policies, its activities tend to be shaped by certain factors that significantly influence or impact the global community for the good. Others are not so sure. That said and as Smith argues, this analysis is mindful that any global benevolence resulting from China exercising its economic policies are purely incidental to those of its own self-interests (Smith, 1976). Moreover, these interests should not be considered as opposed or related to a “conspiracy against…their peers and competitors to monopolize critical resources for their own self-interests” (Changvong, 2014)

Figure 1.1 Principle Elements to Power Projection and Authority: Dynamic Competition

ABILITY TO PROJECT POWER AND AUTHORITY:

Dynamic Competition

This paper explores six environmental factors as influencers to China’s global impact. They include China’s:

1. Social (economic stability)

2. Political (economic policy)

3. Economic (wealth generation)

4. Legal (economic protection)

5. Intercultural (economic integration and trade diversity)

6. Technology (rapid patent monetization and integration) 

The author proposes to investigate these factors as significant influencers associated with the emergence of China as the new world power. These environmental factors are framed by the SPELIT Power Matrix assessment and analysis model in the following tables (See Table 1.1 and 1.2 this section).

Table 1.1 China: SPELIT Power Matrix Assumptions (Assessment Factors/Influencers/Affects)

Table 1.2. China: SPELIT Matrix Assumptions (Assessment Factors/Influencers/Affects)

1. Social (Economic Stability) 

• Establishes trade, commerce, and social and infrastructural development programs in numerous countries in 2nd and 3rd tier countries, to include only select 1st tier trade partners
• Increase in social influence globally
• Activities and approach to global social problems by employing non-violate, non-controlling or military dominance influences “positive” and “new” partnerships aside from the techniques and foreign aid programs associated with the West

2. Political (Economic Policy)

• China’s traditional foreign and economic policy, are gained wide acceptance within the global community when Anglo-America policies are losing their appeal.
• China’s traditional foreign policy is considered non-aggressive or non-expansive as pertaining to expansion beyond its traditional boarder, (Farrell, 1997).
• Establishes largest merchant fleet (navy) globally
• Provides the ability to sustain the China five year growth plan at 8%/yr. in order to double the size of its economy in 8.75 years.
• Increases China’s global economic reach and power projection ability or characterization as a superpower
• The Anglo-American countries will characterize China’s dominance as a threat to democracy, global stability, international rule of law, and human rights.
• A lightly effect of China’s emergence as a dominant power is the reversal or forgiveness of all sovereign global debt, which could spawn a rapid and significant global economic and financial stimulus and recovery that ultimately favors all Anglo-American sovereigns (Farrell, 2013)

3. Economic (Wealth Generation)

• Global currency stability due to the rapid devaluation of the current global standard (USD)
• China’s monetary system is independent from the global banking system
• China’s monetary system as controlled by the State is debt-free and based on a combination of a trade and commerce and precious metal (gold and silver) surplus
• The current Anglo-America global standard of currency exchange system is failing according to a number of international economists and financial analysts (Farrell, 1997)
• China’s non-debt based currency directly threats the continuation of U.S. currency as the standard basis of exchange globally
• Over time, China’s renminbi will form the basis of most of the world’s currency or monetary reserves.
• Once this turning point is reached, China’s renminbi will overtake the dominance of the USD by replacing it with the renminbi.
• Massive new trade and commerce exchange agreements are developing between China, India, Japan, the Middle East, Russia, South America, and Africa have been unprecedented since Anglo-Saxon and Anglo-American currency dominance that began in the late 1600’s and further cemented with the creation of the East India Company, the establishment of the gold standard in 1816; and later the establishment of Switzerland’s Bank for International Settlements in 1930, (Farrell, 2013)
• In 2010, Russia adopted China’s renminbi (RMB) as the currency basis of trade between the two countries departing from the USD, with Britain jointing the international currency swap agreement in June 2013 (SWIFT, 2014)

4. Legal (Economic Protection)

• China agrees to accept US technology patents in exchange for extended purchases of US debt instruments (bonds)
• China’s legal, trade, system of commerce and traditional culture have always favored open and unconventional practices pertaining to emerging technologies and inventions. These favor an open and unprotected monetization of any and all viable technologies regardless of developmental origin or inventor

5. Intercultural (Economic Integration and Trade Diversity)

• Opens borders to international cultures for trade and commerce development and entrepreneurism in numerous coastal zones within China
• China’s growing intercultural trade and commerce will serve to increase its presence, influence, power, and authority globally
• It’s social-economic policies, of free and open fair trade and payments without concessions of territorial rights or buy-backs provides an attractive and refreshing alternative to U.S. offerings commonly secured by applied force, or “at the point of a gun”, (Farrell, 1997).

6. Technology (Rapid Patent Commercialization and Integration)

• China opens purchased US patents within China to full-and-open competitive commercial production and integration into its infrastructure an commerce
• China agrees to work to improve management and control of its patents and related commercialization policies
• Once China achieves global economic trade and commerce dominance, it is likely the Western patent protection system will fail in favor of China’s
• China’s absence of Western patent rule of law allow for the rapid and explosive delivery of technologies for the benefit of the people, a concept, that is more readily accepted in the Eastern cultures than the West

Figure 1.2. Key Players Competing for Power Projection and Authority: Global Dynamic

COMPETITION FOR POWER AND AUTHORITY:

Global Dynamic

Concluding Assumptions

           The study is complex and is limited in terms of its focus in order to better allow for the in-depth investigation and determination of a narrow range of possible outcomes. This is the intent when applying the Delphi method as the technique is designed to undertake complex problems that involve a large number of multi-variants. Properly applied, the technique serves to reduce this complexity to an efficient and manageable number variables that in turn allows decisional bodies to more expeditiously assess and determine a policy or decisional outcome. After the review of the initial literature and data bearing on the problem statement the following assumptions were presented for framing and their consideration prior to being requested to participate in the Delphi survey round. 

The study’s assumptions are as follows:

1. The literature reviewed for the study’s background pertaining to controlling factors and related issues were taken from over 187 leading scholars on the subject of China considered to be experts in the subjects or topics presented.
2. The relevant literature and data as represented by the scholars and analysis have been accurately framed, themed and coded as reflected in the following figures:

     a. Areas of Interest as Critical Factors and Future Influencers

     b. Most Significant Leading Factors

     c. Historical Areas of Interest: Influencers

     d. Assumptions: Based on economic and leadership theory & observations of outcomes; and,

     e. Three Competitive Ideologies

3. The applicability of principle ideologies, leadership, social, political and economic theories pertinent to scholars are relevant to investigating the study’s problem statement and related inquiry, e.g.: Adam Smith (economics, wealth, and dominance); Richard Nixon (China diplomacy); Henry Kissinger (understanding China); Timothy Beardson (economics and finance in China); Jared Diamond (historian, economic and environmentalist); Joseph P. Farrel (physicist, econometric and financial systems); Niall Ferguson (historian, economist); Ivan Tselichtchev (historian, economist); Ezra Vogel (China historian, biographer); Li Xiaoping (statesman, politician, leader); M. Zhu (economic, financial, monetary systems and policy); Ellen Hodgson Brown (economic, financial, monetary systems, legal and policy), John Taylor and Akila Weerapana (macroeconomics, causational and predictive modeling), Martin Jacques (globalization, Chinese history, culture, international relations), and John Nash (mathematic, econometrics, predictive rational gaming).    

4. The applicability of principle techniques, processes, and methodologies were pertinent and a best fit for investigating the problem statement, e.g.:

     a. The SPELIT Matrix framework by June Schmieder-Ramirez and Leo Mallette;

    b. the SWOT (PEST) analysis by Albert Humphrey;

    c. Qualitative Coding techniques by Johnny Saldana; and,

    d. the application of the Delphi Method and rapid techniques by Murray Turoff, Olaf. Helmer, T.J. Gordon, and Arthur Pease.

5. The above listed theories and methodologies were adapted and applied to the study in such a manner as to yield a set of significant and relevant outcomes or findings.

Upon conclusion of the above assumptions and the study’s background investigation into significant areas of interest, reviews of critical issues, narratives, and relevant literature I would argue the direction of this study can be defended based on the initial findings taken from the critical works of those scholars and analysts that are actively researching the future potential impacts of the factors and issues represented on the leadership and economy of China (as subject matter experts) in guiding this study, its related inquiry, and findings.    

Study: Design Approach Summarized       

The approach to this study is summarized in the following figure as a quick reference guide towards the research inquiry design for discovery. Chapter Two of this study investigates and examines the literature relevant to these three factors, influencers, and affects in the context of the selected areas of interest.

Figure 1.3 Design Approach to Study

A NINE STEP PROCESS

Applying the Delphi Method

Terms

Anglo-American: Refers to regions in the Americas in which English is a main language, and where British culture and the British Empire has had significant historical, ethnic, linguistic, and cultural impact, as defined by Encyclopedia Britannica, 15th ed., Chicago, Encyclopedia Britannica, Inc., 1990, ISBN 0-85229-511-1.

Bounded study: (Bound) In Type Theory, bounded quantification of a restricted ("bounded") range of subtypes within a larger set or group. In this case, the study Delphi panel is not random. Further, the panel range of expertise or knowledge pertaining to the central questions are limited in range to only those environmental factors identified. As such, this study is bounded by the quantifiers and limited to the range of the cultural or social subtypes within the Chinese or Asian cultures from a global sampling perspective. Finally, the study sample (panel) size is limited (Simons, H., 2009; Wolfram, E., Henning, S. Torsten, H, 2014; Zuckerman, A., Dasovic, J., & Fitzgerald, J., 2007).  

China Impact: (Impact) The striking of one thing against another with forceful contact or collision (Colliers, 2014; World English Dictionary, 2014). In this case, China Impact refers to a collision of divergent cultures and the resultant global influence, effect, and predictive implications. The impact of force exerted by leadership change, a new idea, concept, technology, ideology, or new form of empowerment; the impact of a global cultural revolution, socio-economic, and global body politic due to rapid role or power reversals in global leadership, power, and dominance of will (Huff, 2014).

Ethnography: Research designed to explore cultural phenomena. Anthropology study wherein the focus is on the assessment of human cultural development or ontology. These assessments include the study of similarities and dissimilarities between a given set of cultures. Study pertaining to race origin, distinguishing characteristics, and related distribution phenomena (Geertz, 1973; American Ethnography Quasimonthly, 2014).

Five-Year Plan: a series of social and economic development initiatives created by the Communist Party of China (CPC) to shape the countries future and economic goals. The plan is created during the plenary sessions of the Central Committee and national congress. The party plays a leading role in establishing the foundations and principles of Chinese communism, mapping strategies for economic development, setting growth targets, and launching reforms.

Planning is a key characteristic of China’s centralized communist economies. One plan is established for the entire country that normally contains detailed economic development guidelines for all its regions. In order to more accurately reflect China's transition from a Soviet-style planned economy to a socialist market economy (socialism with Chinese characteristics), the name of the 11th five-year program was changed to "guideline" (Chinese: 规划; pinyin: guīhuà) instead of "plan" (Chinese: 计划; pinyin: jìhuà) (KPMG China, 2011).

Fiscal Stimulus Package: In economics, stimulus and or related plans (packages) refers to attempts to use monetary or fiscal policy (or stabilization policy in general) to stimulate a national, regional, or localized economy. Stimulus plans can also refer to monetary policies like lowering interest rates and quantitative easing (Center for Economic Studies, 2014).

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The market value of all officially recognized final goods and services produced within a country in a year, or other given period of time. Gross domestic product per capita is often considered an indicator of a country's standard of living.

According to economic theory, GDP per capita exactly equals the gross domestic income (GDI) per capita. The world banking system has established the definition and method of calculation of GDP as a global standard of measuring a countries economic power (CIA World Factbook, 2012; Center for Economic Studies, 2014).

Global Leadership: The interdisciplinary study of key elements that future leaders in all areas of experience, knowledge, expertise, and interests need to acquire to familiarize themselves with in order to grasp a functional understanding of the effects of globalization within a broad range of highly diverse environments, psychological, physiological, geographical, geopolitical, anthropological, sociological, economic, and technological factors and relational influences. Global leadership occurs when an individual can successfully navigate a broad range of stakeholders through environmental complexity towards a common vision by leveraging a global mindset (Grove, C., 2005). Grove argues global leadership consists of, but is not limited to: human enterprise toward peace, international business design and process, and significant shifts in geopolitical paradigms and access to global resources. Additionally, he argues emerging global challenges requires a new order of talent, insight, ethical, and moral focus will be required for these leaders to successfully navigate humanity through future developments in a collaborative world effort as we experience rapidly emerging globalization phenomenon (Grove, C., 2005; Hofstede, G. 1980).

Imperialist: (Imperialism) defined by the Dictionary of Human Geography, is "an unequal human and territorial relationship, usually in the form of an empire, based on ideas of superiority and practices of dominance, and involving the extension of authority and control of one state or people over another."(Johnston, G., Pratt, R., Watts, G., Michael, J., and Whatmore, S. 2009). Lewis Samuel Feuer identifies two major subtypes of imperialism; the first is the "regressive imperialism" identified with pure conquest, unequivocal exploitation, extermination or reductions of undesired peoples, and settlement of desired peoples into those territories. The second type identified by Feuer is "progressive imperialism" that is founded upon a cosmopolitan view of humanity, that promotes the spread of civilization to allegedly "backward" societies to elevate living standards and culture in conquered territories, and allowance of a conquered people to assimilate into the imperial society, an example being the cosmopolitan Achaemenid Empire (Lewis Samuel Feuer,1989).

International Monetary Fund (IMF): is an international organization that was initiated in 1944 at the Bretton Woods Conference and formally created in 1945 by 29 member countries. The IMF's stated goal was to assist in the reconstruction of the world's international payment system post–World War II. Countries contribute money to a pool through a quota system from which countries with payment imbalances can borrow funds temporarily. Through this activity and others such as surveillance of its members' economies and the demand for self-correcting policies, the IMF works to improve the economies of its member countries (Escobar, Arturo, 1980).

The IMF describes itself as “an organization of 188 countries working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world.” (IMF, 2012). The organization's stated objectives are to promote international economic co-operation, international trade, employment, and exchange rate stability, including making financial resources available to member countries to meet balance of payment needs.

Longitudinal Study: A correlational research study that involves repeated observations of the same variables over long periods of time — often many decades. Longitudinal studies are often used in socio-psychology to identify trends across different individuals with the same or similar characteristics for comparative variances. The studies make observing changes more accurate. Because most longitudinal studies are observational, in the sense that they observe the state of the world without manipulating it, it has been argued that they may have less power to detect causal relationships than do experiments (Carlson, Neil, and et al, 2012; Kendra, C. 2012). Some would argue repeated observations at the individual level are more powerful than cross-sectional observational studies. Disadvantages of longitudinal study include their lengthy duration and expense. Certain types of longitudinal studies include cohort studies and panel studies. The technique supports the study of defined groups experiencing a specific or generalized event during specific times or intervals over time. The technique may include the use of panel studies that sample a cross-section of general or specific expertise where a given sample (panel) is surveyed at regular intervals (Kendra, C. 2012). As such, a longitudinal method is well suited to Delphi Method data collection techniques.

Maoism: Formally known as Mao Zedong Thought (simplified Chinese: 毛泽东思想; traditional Chinese: 毛澤東思想; pinyin: Máozédōng sīxiǎng), is a political theory derived from the teachings of the Chinese political leader Mao Zedong (1893–1976).  Its followers, known as Maoists, consider it as an anti-Revisionist form of Marxism-Leninism. Developed during the 1950s and 1960s, it was widely applied as the political and military guiding ideology of the Communist Party of China (CPC). Maoism sees the agrarian peasantry, rather than the working class, as the key revolutionary force which can fundamentally transform capitalist society towards socialism, holding that "Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun," (Quotations From Chairman Mao, 2014). Organizations mainly draw upon Mao's ideology of the People's War when attempting to mobilize large elements of rural populations to revolt against established institutions by engaging in guerrilla warfare. Maoism views the industrial-rural divide as a major division exploited by capitalism, identifying capitalism as involving industrial urban developed First World societies ruling over rural developing Third World societies (Quotations From Chairman Mao, 2014).  Maoism identifies peasant insurgencies in the national context were a world revolution, or global countryside, would overwhelm global cities. Due to the imperialism of the capitalist urban First World towards the rural Third World, Maoism has endorsed national liberation movements in rural or third world countries or regions. Cambridge, England, UK; New York, New York, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2011. P. 289-290).

Middle Kingdom: China, a traditional translation of its Chinese name, Zhongguo (simplified Chinese: 中国; traditional Chinese: 中國). In China, common names for China include Zhongguo (中国/中國) and Zhonghua (中华/中華), while Han (汉/漢) and Tang (唐) are common names given for the Chinese ethnicity. Other names include Huaxia, Shenzhou and Jiuzhou. The People's Republic of China (Zhōnghuá Rénmín Gònghéguó) and Republic of China (Zhōnghuá Mínguó) are the official names for the two contemporary sovereign states currently claiming sovereignty over the traditional area of China. "Mainland China" is used to refer to areas under the jurisdiction of the PRC that excludes Hong Kong and Macau as referenced by Peter K. Bol, in his "Geography and Culture: Middle-Period Discourse on the Zhong Guo: The Central Country," (2009), 1, 26.

Peaked Resources: A point at which production or harvesting of a mineral or natural product has exceeded the amount (quantity) either known to exist, or outpaces the availability of the resource in question. This condition when reached, commonly results in a demand that is not satisfied. This leads to peaked resources being those that are more highly sought after and valued in the market place. Globally peaked resources are those that result from demands on available resources which are subject to continuing decline in production due to increased scarcity (Escobar, Arturo, 1980; Center for Economic Studies, 2014).

Peoples Republic of China (PRC):  China (Listeni/?t?a?n?/; Chinese: 中国; pinyin: Zhōngguó), officially the People's Republic of China is a sovereign state located in East Asia. The republic is the world's most populous country, with a population of over 1.35 billion. The PRC is a single-party state governed by the Communist Party, with its seat of government in the capital city of Beijing (Walton, G.; “International Centre for Human Rights and Democratic Development, 2001). It exercises jurisdiction over 22 provinces, five autonomous regions, four direct-controlled municipalities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing), and two mostly self-governing special administrative regions (Hong Kong and Macau). The PRC also claims Taiwan which is controlled by the Republic of China (ROC), a separate political entity as its 23rd province, a claim which is controversial due to the complex political status of Taiwan (Walton, G., 2001).

Peoples Communist Party of China (CPC): The political party that has ruled the People's Republic of China since 1949. Its origin is the basis of China’s reverence for “Mother Russia”. The CPC is the only party allowed to rule the country, although it coexists alongside 8 other legal parties that make up the United Front. It was founded in 1921, chiefly by Chen Duxiu and Li Dazhao. The party grew quickly, and by 1949 the CPC had defeated Kuomintang in a 10-year civil war. The CPC is organized on the basis of democratic centralism, a system conceived by Vladimir Lenin (the informal leader of the Russian Bolshevik Party) (China Daily Group, 2012; Wong, 2005).

Policy Delphi Method: Is an offspring of the classic Delphi method created by the RAND Corporation as the result of a U.S. Army Air Corps study commissioned during the Cold War in 1959. The approach, originally styled as a quantitative model, was designed by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher as a structured communication technique, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus, and stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results.

Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups (Rowe and Wright, 2001). The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE). Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets (Green, Armstrong, and Graefe, 2007). 

The Policy Delphi was introduced in 1969 and reported on in 1970. The Policy Delphi offspring, seeks to generate the strongest possible opposing views on the potential resolutions on a major policy issue. In this method approach, a policy Delphi approach is one that assumes there are no experts, only informed advocates and referees. An expert or analyst may submit a quantitative or qualitative estimate of some effect as an outcome of a particular event or policy. The Policy Delphi seeks to identify the level of disagreement or absence of a clear-cut opinion or estimate from a panel as a means of determining whether a given issue or policy should cease in its consideration, advocacy, or continuation (Turoff, 2005). The method can support the discovery of emerging trends where current events, policy, or advocacy is under consideration (Turoff, 1970). As such, the Policy Delphi Method as adapted to a computer-aided survey exchange is appropriate for a study of complex environmental factors as influencers related to this study.

Real-Time Delphi Technique (RTD): Gordon and Pease real-time Delphi technique as an advanced and innovative approach to conducting Delphi studies that does not involve sequential rounds. This technique offers participants the ability to continually revise and update their opinions or judgments in real-time using computer aided processes and connectivity. They argue the process leads to a higher degree of efficiency with regard to the time frame needed to perform such studies (Friedewald, von Oertzen, and Cuhls, 2012) due to participant responses are communicated in real time.  In “a Real-Time-Delphi, the participants do not only judge twice but can change their opinion as often as they like when they see the aggregated results of the other participants”. Friedewald argues the Real-Time Delphi method has explorative and predictive potential to deliver findings with a high degree of significance. Gordon and Pease present a compelling case and explanation of RTD in their scientific paper titled “Technological Forecasting and Social Change”, 2006.

Three Worlds Theory: The theory (simplified Chinese: 三个世界的理论; traditional Chinese: 三個世界的理論; pinyin: Sān gè Shìjiè de Lǐlùn), developed by Chinese Communist leader Mao Zedong (1893–1976), posits international relations comprise three political-socio-economic worlds. The First World is representative of the superpowers. The Second World is representative of the superpowers' allies or affiliated subordinate stakeholders. Finally, the Third World, is represented as those nations that are absent affiliation described as a Non-Aligned Movement. Chairman Mao notably included the US and the Soviet Union in the First World group. The Three Worlds Theory developed by Mao Zedong is different from the Western theory of the Three Worlds. The Western theory argues the First World was the United States and its allies, the Second World was the Soviet Union and its allies, and the Third World was the neutral and nonaligned countries (Center for Economic Studies, 2014; CIA World Factbook, 2012).

Wealth of Nations: An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of The Wealth of Nations is a magnum opus of the Scottish economist and moral philosopher Adam Smith. First published in 1776, the book offers one of the world's first collected descriptions of what builds nations' wealth and is today a fundamental work in classical economics. Through reflection over the economics at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution the book touches upon such broad topics as the division of labor, productivity and free markets (Rosenberg, 1993).                                              PDH