China: gradually, now suddenly
There are several instances of economies beset by apparent short-term shocks that ended up being lasting economic changes. The pandemic could well be such a catalyst for China.
COVID has sharpened China’s already challenging demographics.
This is coalescing with issues that are themselves constraints - particularly climate, shared prosperity and the real estate sector.
Much depends on China’s ability to deliver productivity enhancing reform. But the ‘middle-income trap’ highlights that few economies do this smoothly, if at all.
A slower growing China will still be a very large economy. But the economic opportunities will differ.