China claims a change of government in Taiwan is the only way to stop war. But it would be a disaster.

Much has been made of the importance of 2024 for democracy, with elections taking place in more than 70 countries representing a majority of the world’s population for the first time in history. But it is this weekend’s presidential election in Taiwan which will prove most consequential. The choice facing Taiwan’s 18 million voters on Saturday is not simply polarising. It is existential. It is a choice between independence from, and reunification with, China. The pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is narrowly ahead of the pro-unification Kuomintang (KMT) in opinion polls, with even the most ardent China-watchers wary of predicting the outcome.

That outcome will determine the pace at which Beijing pursues reunification, and whether it is done by force. The return of a DPP government led by Lai Ching-te would almost certainly convince Xi Jinping of the need to increase economic, military, and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan. Whilst launching a conventional military assault on Taiwan remains a distinct possibility, it is one fraught with risk. However, Beijing’s impatience to bring Taiwan to heel is growing. The number of military overflights, exercises, and cyberattacks has increased sharply under Xi’s leadership, accompanied by a chorus of rhetoric presenting Taiwanese independence as an insult to Chinese nationalism. Rest assured that Beijing’s response to a DPP victory this weekend is unlikely to be subtle.

The election of a Beijing-backed KMT administration led by Hou Yu-ih on the other hand would finally provide Xi Jinping with a pretext to expedite reunification - without recourse to force. Whilst the prospect of an autocrat pledging to respect the will of the people may ring hollow, such an outcome would spare China the inevitable international opprobrium that would follow any invasion. Although this is most certainly China’s preferred outcome, a KMT victory poses several threats to global security and prosperity.

First, by providing Xi with a totemic victory, it would bolster the cause of Chinese nationalism. This would almost certainly result in China upping the ante over more than a dozen existing territorial disputes with its neighbours. Second, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would deal a potentially fatal blow to the post-war international order that has underpinned peace and prosperity until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Third, Taiwan’s dominance over semiconductor production makes it an invaluable asset in the AI arms race, one that few wish to see under Chinese control.

The island’s current pro-independence majority provides a significant deterrent, denying China’s unification ambition the international legitimacy it craves. This is all the more important given that the principal deterrent - America’s willingness to defend Taiwan militarily - looks increasingly uncertain. As votes are still being counted in Taiwan, the first Republican caucus of the 2024 US presidential campaign will begin 7000 miles away in Iowa. A victory for Donald Trump in November is a real possibility. What it would mean for US-Sino relations and for Taiwan is, frankly, anyone’s guess.

Trump’s approach to Taiwan as president sent mixed signals to all parties. His engagement with his Taiwanese counterpart following his election undermined four decades of American diplomatic nuance and was followed later in his term by an $18 billion arms package. Predictably, both moves were interpreted by Beijing as destabilising provocations. Fast forward 12 months and Trump’s National Security Adviser turned arch critic John Bolton noted that the president’s approach to Taiwan had become ‘dyspeptic’, causing many in his administration to doubt whether he was even sympathetic to its independence, let alone willing to guarantee it.

The coming election frenzy will result in a geopolitical introversion, as politicians’ attention focuses on winning over their respective voters. International turmoil should feature prominently in this year’s elections. But don’t bet on it. China’s growing unwillingness to tolerate Taiwanese independence casts a long shadow over this weekend’s poll, which Beijing has characterised as a ‘choice between ‘peace and war.’

?Maintaining Taiwan’s independence against this bellicose backdrop will require statesmanship that is both robust and agile – in Taiwan as well as amongst its supporters. James Freeman Clarke noted that the difference between politicians and statesmen is that politicians think about the next election while statesmen think about the next generation. With pivotal elections like those in Taiwan on the cards this year, statesmen will be sorely needed. Without them, 2024 will see the world become a more dangerous place.?