China bond investors wary

Briefly in today’s #5in5withANZ podcast below:

Chinese stocks rise after more stimulus was promised over the weekend, but bond investors remain wary. Singapore holds policy but turns dovish, even as growth strengthens. India’s inflation unexpectedly jumps in September.

5 things to know in 5 minutes:

1. China’s CSI 300 index rose 1.9% yesterday in the first trading since Saturday’s stimulus briefing. ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing says that sentiment on stocks might hold, although bond investors are feeling less positive as they wait on the size of a promised debt increase.
2. It’s a big data week for Bank of England watchers, says ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga , with jobs, wages, sales and inflation numbers all coming out.
3. The Monetary Authority of Singapore held policy yesterday but shifted to a more dovish outlook. ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh is expected easing from early 2025.
4. Singapore’s Q3 GDP rose 4.1% from a year ago, compared to expectations for 3.8% and 2.9% annual growth in Q2. Khoon says as long as inflation continues to moderate and fall towards its long-term average as forecast, the strong growth shouldn’t stop the MAS from easing.
5. India’s annual inflation in September was 5.5% - almost half a percent higher than expectations. ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim says the data hasn’t changed his view that the Reserve Bank of India can cut from December, given most of the surprise was due to vegetable prices, which he says will normalise.

In our bonus Deep Dive interview:

ANZ International Economist Kishti Sen analyses the outlook for Pacific Island currencies as global monetary policy easing takes off.

Cheers

Alex

PS: Bernard is away this week on family leave. Catch you tomorrow with a preview of New Zealand’s Q3 inflation print.