Is China America's Newman?

The world of modern international affairs can be rather complex, with many factors such as history, economics, finance, and culture (just to name a few) driving how nations interact with each other. While universities are full of dissertations trying to make sense of this complex environment, in the end you can sum it all down to one simple concept – who are your friends and who are your enemies?

In 1989, the comedy series “Seinfeld” debuted on NBC. In a show that was described as a “show about nothing”, it in fact centered on four friends living in New York City during the 90’s. At the core were Jerry, George, Elaine, and Kramer – all friends who got along with each other.

However, there was one character who got along great with Kramer, but who was a constant irritant to Jerry. This was Newman, the postman who wasn’t exactly a fan of Jerry. In fact, the term “frenemy” became part of the popular zeitgeist when explaining Jerry’s and Newman’s relationship.

So, if you look up the word frenemy in the Merriam Webster dictionary, you will get the following definition:

a person who is or pretends to be a friend but who is also in some ways an enemy or rival

I would bet that many of you reading this can come up with a couple of people in your life that would fit this description (I know I can). As such, I think it’s fair to say you can extrapolate this concept into the world of foreign affairs.

Let’s get back to our four friends living in NYC to illustrate this point. Let’s say Jerry is the U.S. (the leader of the pack), Elaine is the United Kingdom (she and Jerry have a long-standing “special relationship”), George is Canada (longtime friend of Jerry, but always in his shadow), and Kramer is India (he interacts well with the other three, but he has his own, independent way of doing things). So, what country does this make Newman?

If you ask me, I say China is America’s Newman.

Is China a Friend? Enemy? Frenemy?

China, the world's most populous nation and the second-largest economy, occupies a complex position on the global stage. As it ascends in economic and military might, it presents both strategic challenges and opportunities for the United States and the international community. However, behind its facade of strength, China grapples with a host of internal challenges, including economic vulnerabilities and environmental crises that threaten not only its own stability but also could have reverberating effects globally.

Is China a Tiger?

China's meteoric rise as an economic powerhouse has reshaped global dynamics, challenging the traditional hegemony of Western powers, particularly the United States. Through its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China strives to extend its economic influence across continents, building infrastructure and fostering trade partnerships. China's BRI promises connectivity and development, but also raises concerns about debt dependency among recipient nations and potential geopolitical tensions.

As an example of China’s attempt to increase its influence beyond its borders, the United States Institute of Peace recently reported that “100 African ports have either been built, financed or are currently operated by Chinese state-owned shippers.” While these African countries may be excited for the foreign direct investment (FDI) that their countries are receiving from China, I can’t help but think of the old saying, “there is no such thing as a free lunch”.

China wants something in return.

Furthermore, China's assertiveness in territorial disputes, particularly in the South China Sea, poses a direct challenge to the established order of maritime navigation and international law. As was recently reported in the Washington Post , there are concerns that Asia’s next war could begin around a rusting warship that is grounded on the Second Thomas Shoal. Both the Philippines and China claim jurisdiction over this area.

In addition, China’s military modernization efforts, including the development of advanced weaponry and space capabilities, fuel apprehensions among neighboring countries and the U.S. regarding Beijing's strategic intentions.

In the realm of technology, China's rapid advancements in areas such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and 5G technology have sparked fears of a technological arms race and concerns over data privacy and security. The Chinese government's tight control over its tech sector and allegations of intellectual property theft amplifies these apprehensions, prompting the US and its allies to adopt measures to safeguard their technological edge.

In his recent book titled "New Cold Wars: China's Rise, Russia's Invasion, and America's Struggle to Defend the West", New York Times reporter David Sanger describes how Randall Stephenson, then chief executive of AT&T, tried to explain to President Trump in the Spring of 2019 that if “Huawei or ZTE, two of China’s telecommunications giants, were in the spine of the American system, that could give Beijing “a very elegant path to shutting down networks” and crippling the U.S. communications grid”. Unfortunately, President Trump replied this subject was “really boring”. (Don’t believe me? It’s on pg. 106 – go read it yourself!)

Or is China a Paper Tiger?

Behind China's fa?ade of economic prowess lie deep-seated vulnerabilities that threaten its long-term stability. The country's debt levels, fueled by massive infrastructure spending and state-led stimulus programs, raise alarms about financial sustainability. Moreover, China's aging population and the widening wealth gap pose significant challenges to its economic growth trajectory, potentially dampening domestic consumption and productivity.

China's demographic trends also pose a significant risk, with geopolitical risk expert Peter Zeihan predicting a potential collapse due to its shrinking population. As he explains on his YouTube channel , China’s birth rate is now at 1.16 which is the lowest in China’s history and the 2nd lowest recorded in human history – EVER! Needless to say, that doesn't bode well for China’s future economic growth - unless they can replace everyone with robots!

On top of its shrinking population, China’s environmental degradation emerges as another pressing concern, exacerbated by rapid industrialization and urbanization. Pollution levels, particularly air and water pollution, have reached hazardous levels in many Chinese cities, endangering public health and straining healthcare systems. The environmental toll extends beyond borders, as China's carbon emissions remain the highest globally, contributing significantly to climate change and its adverse effects on a global scale.

China's reliance on coal for energy production underscores its vulnerability to shifts in global energy markets and intensifies its exposure to environmental risks. Transitioning to renewable energy sources presents both an imperative and a monumental challenge for the Chinese government, requiring substantial investments and structural reforms to mitigate environmental degradation and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

How Does This All Play Out?

As China asserts its influence abroad and grapples with internal challenges, the international community faces a delicate balancing act. Engaging with China on areas of mutual interest, such as climate change and global health, while addressing strategic concerns through diplomatic channels, remains crucial. However, this engagement must be grounded in a clear-eyed assessment of China's actions and intentions, ensuring that cooperation does not compromise core values or undermine collective security.

Internally, China's leadership faces the imperative of implementing bold reforms to address economic vulnerabilities and environmental degradation. Prioritizing sustainable development, fostering innovation, and enhancing transparency are essential steps toward building a resilient and inclusive economy while mitigating environmental risks. Furthermore, embracing international cooperation and multilateral frameworks can facilitate the sharing of best practices and resources, accelerating progress toward common goals.

China's dual role as a strategic risk abroad and a nation facing economic and environmental challenges at home underscores the complexity of contemporary geopolitics. Navigating this landscape requires a nuanced approach that balances engagement with vigilance, cooperation with assertiveness, and recognition of shared interests with safeguarding fundamental principles. Only through concerted efforts and genuine dialogue can the US, China, and the international community navigate the complexities of the 21st century global order.

As a reminder, Jerry and Newman did form an alliance when they shared a mutual goal. Hopefully, the U.S. and China can find a way to coexist. If not...

Go read 2034: A War of the Next World War . It doesn’t end well.

Et, al....

Review: "Civil War"

As a subscriber to this newsletter, you know I cover the concept of risk in its many facets – including political risk. Also, you probably know I enjoy going to the movies and giving my two-cents if I like certain films or not. Well, in this edition I give my thoughts on a recent movie I saw that covers the concept of political risk. However, this movie wasn’t about political instability in some remote corner of the world or a look back in history. No, this movie delves into something a bit too close to home.

The film “Civil War” which is directed by Alex Garland, dives into a dystopian America fractured by civil war. A team of journalists, led by the seasoned Lee Smith (played flawlessly by Kristen Dunst, who better get an Oscar nomination for her work) navigate a dangerous journey across the country. Their goal: to reach Washington D.C. and interview the authoritarian President before rebel forces overtake the capital. Along the way, they encounter the ravaged landscape of a nation in conflict, highlighting the human cost of this war.

And the Verdict is…

Garland’s creation is a furiously convincing and disturbing exploration of journalistic ethics, wrapped in a dystopian package that defies categorization. It’s not like anything Garland has made before, and its originality sets it apart from the cinematic landscape.

Personally, this is one of the best movies I have seen in a while….as well as one of the most disturbing.

The last 20 minutes were both exciting and heartbreaking, because as you see how this story ends and specifically WHERE it ends it’s hard not to feel heartbroken. In addition, I defy anyone who loves this country to watch the last image as the credit rolls and not feel a sense of dread and remorse about the level of discord and anxiety that has seeped into the civic fabric of our nation.

This movie should be required viewing for every American.

If you enjoy what you've read here and you think I might have a clue what I'm talking about, then please reach out to me if you would like me to present to your firm or organization. I have experience talking to professional organizations, trade conferences, as well as universities. I've also appeared in newspaper articles and podcasts. Also, I'm available for birthdays and bar mitzvahs.