China-Africa Trade Relations: Focus on the 2024 FOCAC Summit

FOCAC

In the first week of September 2024, Beijing will host the 2024 The Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) 9th Summit. FOCAC is by far the most comprehensive platform which promotes the China-Africa relationship. Established in 2000, FOCAC has aimed to facilitate collective dialogue and practical cooperation between China and Africa on various aspects including trade, infrastructure development ,and financing. Will the Summit have any implication on Africa’s trade with China? Here are some key aspects to look out for.

Looking Back: The 8th FOCAC Summit

One of the key outcomes of the 8th FOCAC Summit, held in Senegal was the Dakar Action Plan (2022-2024).?? Under this Action plan China made several commitments around trade namely: a trade financing quota of US$10 billion to support African exports; establishing e-commerce cooperation mechanisms; trade facilitation; expand the scope?of China’s Duty Free Quota Free Scheme; strive to achieve a total import volume of US$300 billion from Africa in the within three years. Has any of these been achieved? Well, there have been various perspectives regarding these initiatives and more importantly what the upcoming summit should focus on. As usually this update will be heavy on the trade and integration aspects of China- Africa relations.

Linda Calabrese in her piece “African free trade pact gives China a chance to deepen its engagement” notes the AfCFTA can lengthen African value chains and make manufacturing more efficient, serving as a launchpad for African countries to export more manufactured products outside the continent, including to China. She gives great suggestions on what China can do to take this arrangement to the next level. These include ?China investing ?in African in value chains that the African Union has identified.

However, it is important to note that a lot also needs to be done especially by Africa countries. Research shows that African countries barely have a China Strategy ,and only coalesce and wrap their minds around ?how to cooperate with when FOCAC Summits are near the corner. Paul Nantulya in his article “FOCAC 2024: Elevating African Interests Beyond the Africa-China Summit” notes that “ While FOCAC has emerged as a unique forum, it is still by-and-large shaped by a donor-recipient dynamic, where African countries mostly take a back seat while China initiates much of the agenda “. He bemoans African countries inability to articulate their interests and the fact that FOCAC lacks broad-based public consultation and engagement. The creation of subforums for nongovernmental organizations.

What Should Africa Expect from FOCAC 2024?

A host of Africa heads of State including South Africa’s Cyril ?Ramaphosa, Ghana’s Akufo?Addo, Kenya’s? William? ?Ruto and Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed are expected to attend ?FOCAC 2024. In terms of expectation , one would expect the usual discussions around trade, debt, and ?infrastructure.

Trade, Debt, and Infrastructure

Trade relations between China and Africa goes beyond the formation of FOCAC. According to data ?and analysis by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China has emerged as sub-Saharan Africa’s largest individual country trading partner in the last 20 years with round 20% of the region’s exports now go to China and about 16% of Africa’s imports come from China.

Therefore, discussions on how to reduce trade imbalance between Africa and China as well as how ??African the AfCFTA will promote the growth of regional value chains by offering Chinese businesses access to a larger unified African market is ?feature. We need to remember however that Africa is made up of ?several countries that this , as has happened in the past, will determine how these discussions are concluded especially because ?China trade interest in Africa is country/ region specific. Predictions have it that in the decade ahead, China’s private sector, rather than its state-run enterprises, will lead trade and investment in Africa.

On Debt China remains ?the largest bilateral creditor to Africa, providing African countries with a new source of infrastructure, mining, and energy financing. In this regards, China’s share of total sub-Saharan African external public debt was less than 2% before 2005 but grew to about 17%, or $134 billion, by 2021.

Finally ?on infrastructure , discussions are likely to focus on prioritizing ?greater coordination between the AfCFTA and the Belt and Road Initiative( BRI). I was privileged to have ?worked on a couple of research projects ?on ?China- Africa relations ?which? look at the pertinent issues in Sino- Africa relations? from ?an Africa’s perspective. The insight and findings of these ?researchers are still relevant especially on the direction Africa countries should take to make this relationship more meaningful. They include ?“From China-Africa to Africa-China: A Blueprint for a Green and Inclusive Continent-Wide African Strategy towards China, , and , “Reimagining FOCAC Going Forwards: An African Assessment of Needs, Demands and Opportunities for FOCAC 202 and Beyond,” both of which were published by Development Reimagined.

As a keen watcher of China- Africa relations particularly around trade , debt, and infrastructure , I look forward to seeing improvement on how African engages with China, a country ?which, by any standards, is ?one of the most important players in current global economy. I shall of course provide further insights regarding the ?FOCAC 2024 outcomes.

?Warm Regards

Patrick Anam,

Trade Law and Policy Expert