China 2024: What to Watch

The annual report from the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, ‘’China 2024: What to Watch’’, outlines 10 things to monitor in China in 2024.

The contributors and top key developments to watch are:

??Nathan Levine, concluding that China’s economy will continue to struggle this year.

‘’Although China officially met its annual growth target of “around 5%” in 2023, with 5.2% growth according to official data, most economists predict these structural factors will only further weigh on China in 2024.’’

??Myself, stating that Xi’s prioritization of security will continue to weigh on growth.

Xi Jinping has elevated an all-encompassing concept of “comprehensive national security” as the Party-state’s top priority. This focus on security, when combined with Xi’s reemphasis of Marxist-Leninist ideology, is now clashing with Beijing’s concurrent goal of sustaining Chinese economic growth.

??Jing Qian, arguing that eroding trust could further undermine confidence in governance and development.

‘’China is currently marked by a notable, accelerating erosion of trust. This decline is reshaping the dynamics between political elites, the state and society, central and local governments, and among the general populace.’’

??Lynette H Ong, inferring that the economic slowdown will drive public discontent.

‘’Slowing economic growth, high youth unemployment, stagnating wages, and middle-class investments lost due to the real estate crisis are among an array of factors now generating popular discontent in China — and potentially undermining social and political stability.’’

??Neil Thomas, expecting purges in the provinces as local liabilities rise.

‘’Property-related fiscal challenges, debt burdens, lax policy implementation, and other issues will drive increased scrutiny of local officials by China’s central Party-state. Meanwhile, many local governments are in increasingly dire financial straits.’’

??Neil Thomas, saying that Xi will adopt a more oracular leadership style.

‘’Xi Jinping is subtly shifting his governance style. He is beginning to adopt an approach of “delegated centralization,” in which he cedes none of his centralized authority but progressively delegates more of the finer points of policymaking to trusted aides.’’

??Taylah Bland, saying that China will accelerate climate resilience as a security priority.

‘’ Having experienced particularly disastrous extreme weather events in 2023 — due in part to the intensification of the impacts of a changing global climate that increasingly threaten China — we should expect Beijing to devote a growing share of its attention to domestic climate resilience and adaptation measures in 2024.’’

??Kate Logan, stating that China will act to reestablish its international climate leadership.

‘’China has refrained from major new climate commitments in recent years, but a confluence of factors could prompt the country to actively position itself as a global leader on climate action in 2024. Doing so would respond to growing demands of the international community while also enabling China to advance its national interests.’’

??Bates Gill, arguing that China will accelerate its pivot to the Global South.

‘’China is poised to significantly expand its attention on and economic, diplomatic, and security presence in the Global South in 2024, with a particular focus on developing countries in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia.’’

??Lyle Morris concluding that two elections will challenge Chinese foreign policy.

‘’Two key elections — in Taiwan and in the United States — will test Xi Jinping’s foreign policy strategy, pose new challenges for his “China Dream” of achieving the rejuvenation of Chinese national power, and reshape regional dynamics in the Asia-Pacific in 2024.’’

Read the whole report here: https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/china-2024-what-watch

#China #ChinaEconomy #ChinaPolicy