Children of a Lesser Narrative
Every morning, we run the Narrative Machine on the past 24 hours worth of financial media to find the most on-narrative (i.e. interconnected and central) stories in financial media. It’s not a list of best articles or articles we think are most interesting … often far from it.
But for whatever reason these are articles that are representative of some sort of chord that has been struck in Narrative-world.
Why We Should Fear Easy Money [NY Times]
There’s an ET note for that.
There’s an ET note for that, too.
There’s an ET note for that, too, although we’d probably differ on the focus on bearish sentiment. The author is certainly right that these are possibilities, but we think the transformation of capital markets to utilities is a powerful, largely stable narrative.
You may not know his name if you aren’t in the money management industry, but Ruchir’s is a powerful missionary voice. Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and others care what he says. They will repeat it to their boards. They’ll put it in their own words and call it their new outlook, or else they’ll put it in the ‘risks’ section of their 2020 strategic planning. That’s how narrative works.
Alas, this still isn’t the dominant narrative. Frankly, against the tide of ‘Financial Asset Appreciation = Economic Strength = National Strength’ memes promoted throughout political and financial media, it barely registers. Still, it’s gratifying to see some emerging coherence around these ideas, even if the piece had to summon the spectre of a crash to fit the Zeitgeist.
Yours in service to the pack – Ben
Epsilon Theory looks at markets and politics through the lenses of narrative, game theory, and history. Sign up for our free weekly email here, and never miss an article.
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Since there is no longer concern for "Irrational Exuberance", there is no longer anyone who will "Take away the punch bowl when the party gets out of hand"!
Retired
5 年Interesting and thought provoking. It is valuable reading. From my perspective, I read this with my grandchildren in mind. You?
“Most of the important things in the world have been accomplished by people who have kept on trying when there seemed to be no hope at all.” – Dale Carnegie
5 年Meanwhile, the Fed has actually been shrinking its balance sheet and what have long term rates actually done? It was Friedman that said rates are a poor indicator of a policy stance, but all too often low rates mean conditions are tight and not the other way around.