Chicago Closed 2024 Strong—What’s Ahead?

“Chicago’s economic fundamentals remain strong as we move into 2025. With GDP reaching $908 billion, a steady labor market, and robust investment activity, the city continues to demonstrate resilience and growth. While national uncertainty lingers, Chicago’s diverse economy, thriving trade sector, and sustained business confidence position us for continued momentum.”— Hannah Loftus, VP, Research, World Business Chicago

The World Business Chicago Research Center has published its latest Economic Dashboard, offering a data-driven look at how Chicago closed out 2024 and what trends are shaping the year ahead.

?? Explore the full dashboard and key findings here.

With new U.S. policies taking effect and economic conditions evolving, businesses are navigating a landscape of uncertainty. World Business Chicago remains a trusted resource for original research, insights, and real-time updates on the region’s economic trajectory.

The latest WBC Research Economic Dashboard highlights this stability, with:

?? GDP reaching $908 billion in Q1 2025

?? Unemployment declining to 4.4%

?? Venture capital investment surpassing $4.3 billion in 2024

?? O’Hare trade value hitting $295 billion, securing its rank as the #3 U.S. port

U.S. 2025 Economic Outlook: Strength Amid Uncertainty

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony this week emphasized that interest rate cuts may not happen as quickly as expected, as inflation remains above the 2% target. While the economy continues to expand—2.5% growth in 2024, unemployment at 4%—persistent inflation and policy shifts under the new administration bring uncertainty.

National Market Sentiment is Divided

Public confidence in the U.S. economy is split along party lines:

?? 73% of Republicans believe conditions will improve in 2025

?? 64% of Democrats expect the economy to worsen

?? Overall, 40% of Americans foresee economic growth this year

Key Chicago Business & Investment Trends to Watch

Labor Market Resilience

• Job postings declined 5.3% in 2024, indicating a potential tightening of future hiring
• Leasing activity remains strong—534 office & industrial leases signed in Q1

Startup Growth

• $4.32B in startup capital was raised in 2024—? in venture capital, ? in private equity

Investment & Development Confidence

• New private residential building permits surged 16.5% YoY, a sign of continued investor trust in the region

Middle Market Optimism Surges Heading into 2025

JP Morgan Chase’s Business Leaders Outlook Signals a Shift from Caution to Growth

“Leaders are optimistic and focused on growth for 2025. Recession concerns have dropped as businesses, consumers and markets have handled a period of elevated inflation and interest rates better than expected. Confidence in the soft-landing scenario has increased, and business leaders are facing forward with a positive mindset.” -- Ginger Chambless, Head of Research, Commercial Banking, JP Morgan Chase.

Confidence among middle market executives is on the rise, with nearly two-thirds expressing optimism about the national economy in 2025, according to JP Morgan Chase’s recently published Business Leaders Outlook report.

This marks a notable shift in sentiment, as business leaders refocus on expansion after navigating inflation and interest rate challenges.

Key findings include:

• 75% of executives are optimistic about their own companies' growth prospects
• 59% express confidence in their regional economy, while 60% feel positive about their industry’s outlook
• 74% anticipate revenue growth, and 65% expect higher profits
• 51% plan to expand their workforce, even as 77% report rising costs

The report also highlights a surge in strategic business moves, with:

• 53% planning to launch new products or services
• 43% eyeing new partnerships or investments
• 34% planning domestic market expansion

With 71% of leaders seeing no recession on the horizon, the focus has shifted from caution to growth and innovation—a strong indicator of business confidence heading into 2025.

Looking Ahead

World Business Chicago will continue tracking federal policies impacting business, investment, and workforce trends. With economic shifts on the horizon, we remain committed to equipping business leaders with real-time insights and ensuring Chicago remains the top city for growth and innovation.

EXTERNAL RESOURCE:

1. JP Morgan Chase Business Leaders Outlook: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/business-leaders-outlook/2025-us-business-leaders-outlook#section-header#2