Cheltenham Races - Day 1

13.30 - Supreme Novices Hurdle

Willie Mullins has at least a 50-50 chance of training the winner as he trains six of the twelve runners including the top 2 in the market!

Tullyhill looks the right favourite and the most likely winner but the speed rating I have for him is not good enough for me to be backing him at a short price.? Mystical Power is improving but is another that is too short in the market and nearly every winner of this race wins last time out which puts me off Firefox and Slade Steel.? I looked at outsiders such as Tellherthename, Favour and Fortune, Mistergif and Gold Dancer, but I could find something wrong with them all.

I keep coming back to Jeriko Du Reponet.? Some of the Henderson runs have been suffering from a bug, but they are pretty cautious and I am sure would not be running if they had concerns.? He is open to further improvement and looks a very solid each-way bet especially if your bookie is paying 4 places.? I will be hoping that the Willie Mullins domination of Cheltenham does not start at race one!

14.10 - Arkle Novice Chase

Trumping his training of the top two in the betting in the opener, Willie Mullins trains all of the first three in the market here and the form of all the Irish runners was at a higher level than their British counterparts.

I did look at several outsiders here but found most of them easy to dismiss.? The one I did get stuck with was Matata and I ended up having an each-way bet on him as his profile was strong enough to qualify as a bet for me.? He would be bucking some trends if he won and would need to turn around form with JPR One who beat him last time, but I am happy to go with him.

I do think however this will go to the Irish.? Hunters Yarn and Quilixios are yet to win a top-class race over fences and that can be important here.? I cannot back Gaelic Warrior who would have been beaten 20 lengths last time had he not unseated.? I could forgive him that if he was a decent price, but as favourite I will watch him win without my money.

Il Etait Temps beat Found A Fifty in the Irish Arkle and although Gaelic Warrior beat him earlier in the season, he will be my selection for this.

14.50 - Ultima Handicap Chase

I went through the profiles of these horses against today's conditions and arrived at the conclusion that none of them will win!

In terms of confidence, you could probably disregard my thoughts on this one.? The Goffer was placed in it last year and looks to have targeted it again, but I really don't like it when horses arrive with no recent form and win, and I refuse to support them on principle.? I do like Chianti Classico and almost backed him by default, but he is really too short a price.? I ended up with a tentative bet on Twig - not much confidence, but his profile is better than most of the rest and he at least was a decent price.

15.30 - Champion Hurdle

A race that lost most of its appeal when Constitution Hill was ruled out.? State Man became odds-on favourite and would be even shorter if Irish Point had not switched over from the stayers hurdle and Iberico Lord had not been supplemented.

He will probably win but in a race like this I will always be without outsiders who at least have placed form in the conditions as there are still places up for grabs and Irish Point is only here as a chance of plan and Iberico Lord as a late decision.

I ended up with three each-way bets here and have backed them all.? The first is very speculative on the outsider Colonel Mustard, he looks too big for an each- way bet.? I like Nemean Lion to run a good race and possibly pop up in the frame, but my best bet is Luccia.? She beat Iberico Lord who is a quarter of her odds earlier in the season and there are lots of reasons why she could run well at big odds.

16.10 - Mares Hurdle

Lossiemouth is odds on and to be honest it is hard to see her get beaten here, but this is the furthest she has raced on ground slightly softer than the worst she has raced on before and with some very good opposition, I am happy to look elsewhere.

The second favourite, Ashroe Diamond had form under the conditions that made her a bet for me, but I must admit that she was not a super confident one, just one I could not ignore.

I have three each way bets here at better odds and will be hoping that they can expose any stamina issues that could affect the favourite,? My three are Maries Rock, You Wear It Well and Love Envoi.? All are proven under today's conditions and I especially like Love Envoi who was beaten by Lossiemouth last time, but she will love the ground and will definitely stay the extra half mile.

16.50 - Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle

A juvenile hurdle with plenty of horses that have not raced often and it could be that there is something really well-handicapped in there.??

Based on their profile under these conditions and the fact that they have raced often enough to prove themselves, I backed Balboa and Teorie at massive odds in the hope that there are not too many well handicapped ones in there and that they can run into the places.?

The one I ended up with at shorter odds is Liari.? He is unbeaten and whilst I cannot tell how well handicapped he is, he could still be improving and he is big enough that I could back him each way.

17.30 - National Hunt Novices ChaseA small field and tight betting in the last with only two places on offer with most bookies.? I could not get a strong angle into this and could make a case for Salvador Ziggy, Embassy Gardens, Corbetts Cross and Apple Away.

Salvador Ziggy looked the strongest and with Bet365 paying three places he looked a solid each-way bet to me and that is the option I took.