Cheltenham - Day 3

Wednesday Review

Wednesday opened with a nice performance from Bob Ollinger who was impressive in beating fellow market leaders Galliard Du Mesneil and Bravenmansgame. It was job done for the long odds on Monkfish in the next who never looked in any danger except from the fences as he did not jump well and made a few mistakes on the way round but still won pretty easily.

The Coral Cup was a front-running success for the big priced Heaven Help Us. No fluke to this one, the horse went clear down the hill and ran on strongly in the straight to land the spoils. Last year’s Arkle winner followed up in the Champion Chase as Put The Kettle On really stuck to the task up the hill to land the win. No excuses for favourite Chacun Pour Soi who came there to win but ended up being run into third. Sceau Royal may have been unlucky as he was beaten no further than the ground he lost when hampered down the hill.

You could not help but to enjoy the cross-country race as Tiger Roll landed his 5th Festival win when suddenly looking like his old self leading a long way from home and never looking remotely like he was going to be caught for a brilliant wide-margin win. The Grand Annual was the first British winner on the day when Sky Pirate was a cracking winner. I mentioned that Entoucas rarely wins and he contrived to finish 2nd here beaten by a small margin and Ibleo came from the clouds getting on the scene way too late to finish 3rd. In the bumper at the end of the day it was Sir Gerhard who came out on top, a third consecutive winner of the race for the owner just holding off the other favourite Kilcruit on the run in.

A better day for me in terms of analysis although still no winners aside from the odds-on Monkfish! I did have several places though, Tea Clipper at 50-1 in the Coral Cup, Greaneteen without the favourite in the Champion Chase, Some Neck in the Cross Country, Ibleo in the Grand Annual and Three Stripe Life in the bumper.

Thursday Preview

Marsh Novices Chase (13.20)

I already have two losers antepost as I backed Sporting John at 50-1 for this and Fiddlerontheroof at 33-1 only to see them both run against Monkfish on Wednesday in preference to this! Maybe the unbeaten Envoi Allen scared them off as he is is odds-on here and one punter has a ￡500k return from an accumulator hinging on him winning unless he cashes out ahead of the race.

I think Envoi Allen should win easily. Shan Blue is next in the market and was 25 lengths behind Envoi Allen in the Ballymore last year. I do not see him making that up and I was disappointed that he could not beat Sporting John last time although he will prefer the ground here as it was heavy at Sandown. Chantry House seems to win in lower grade races and gets beaten in top-class ones. I would give Chatham Street Lad a chance as he has won at the track, but his best form looks to be on softer. Asterion Forlonge has fallen twice and seems to prefer right-handed tracks and Darver Star would have a chance on his Champion Hurdle form but has failed to impress over fences. Blackbow is unproven at this level so I am left with Fusil Raffles. His form is in and out, but he will love the ground and has won at the track.

I am going to back Fusil Raffles each way and Envoi Allen to win and I may even play the forecast as well.

Pertemps Hurdle (13.55)

The Pertemps is always hard as there are often well handicapped horses that have qualified without showing their hand and then end up well handicapped. Favourite Imperial Alcazar does not follow the pattern as he won his qualifier but that was only his 2nd handicap, so he could be on the upgrade. He was beaten in both starts on decent ground though. The Bosses Oscar was 5th in the Martin Pipe last tear and has to have a chance, as does Champagne Platinum who is back from chasing to hurdles this season, but that one has failed to place in two starts at the course. Come on Teddy is unproven on the ground as well but he is a course winner and has a decent pull in the weights having finished 3rd to Imperial Alcazar in the qualifier. Brinkley is on the upgrade whilst Mrs Milner was 2nd here in November and Milliner is the type that might have been prepared for this. There may be some well handicapped ones further down the market, but I cannot find them based on their profiles although I do have some time for Storm Goddess the pricewise horse that should love the ground.

I like Come On Teddy each way and might play the forecast with Imperial Alcazar. I will probably have a few quid each-way on Storm Goddess as well.

Ryanair Chase (14.30)

Allaho starts favourite here and I am already on him ante post at 12-1 so I hope he wins! He has placed at the festival twice, which is a slight concern as his wins have all been right-handed and he still has not won a grade 1 having been placed in three. Seven-time grade 1 winner Min, won this last year but comes in on the back of a pulled up effort at Leopardstown. That said he is the choice of Paul Townend over Allaho which may be a good sign of his chances. Imperial Aura unseated last time and needs to keep on improving to win this and I think he is way too short a price. Melon is a serial non-winner and I am happy to ignore him at the odds. The lack of Grade 1 form is a negative for Mister Fisher but it is the only one, he will love the ground, has won here twice and looks a big player here. Fakir D’Oudaries has a chance, whilst Samcro won the Marsh last year but would need a big bounce back on this seasons form. 

I am already on Allaho, so I am going to top up with an each way bet on Mister Fisher.

Stayers Hurdle (15.05)

Paisley Park is 2-1 favourite and I am on antepost at 8-1, so for the second race running, I start in a good position! It was even better as I had Thyme Hill each way at 16-1 as well, but he was withdrawn.

For me, Paisley has not looked as good this year, but he is still the one to beat and the opposition does not look too frightening! Sire Du Berlais has won the last two runnings of the Pertemps but he is a short price for a horse unproven at this level. Flooring Porter beat Sire Du Berlais, The Storyteller, Fury Road and Bacardys over Christmas and that gives him a chance but counts against all the others. Vinndication has not jumped a hurdle for two years which has to be a concern. Lisnagar Oscar seems to save his best for Cheltenham and won this last year. I could not discount him. Beacon Edge could be a factor if he handles the step up in trip and If The Cap Fits is another back from chasing and was held on form by Paisley and Lisnagar when he last hurdled, but that was on soft and he has won a grade 1 on good ground . Nothing in the profiles points me at any of the others.

I will stick with Paisley Park, but will support Lisnagar Oscar and If The Cap Fits each way.

 Plate (15.40)

The Paddy Power Plate looks hard! The Shunter is on the upgrade and has not been badly penalised for his hurdles wins so looks to have a good shout, but the price is too short for me in a competitive race. Farclas has been tipped in various corners but looks short enough now, but he has won the Triumph Hurdle, so you could not be surprised if he won. You would need the better ground to bring some improvement from Caribean Boy if you were interested in him. I have always liked A Wave of the Sea. He will like the ground and has a nice profile. He has drifted to a backable price and I will! Stablemate Fils Doudaireis could be anything and ran in a Grade 1 (well-beaten) last time. I have jumping concerns for Assemble and Dead Right has had a long break. He can also have jumping issues but has good form when he jumps well and could not be ruled out. I really liked the profiles of Happy Diva and Mister Whitaker but only one place each in the last two years does not inspire confidence and I can pick profile holes in all the rest, except maybe Oldgrangewood who looked solid enough.

I will go with several here, A Wave of the Sea, Fils D’Oudaries in the hope he is better than he has shown, Oldgrangewood and Dead Right for Neil.

Mares Novice Hurdle (16.15)

Any time you have about four different favourites depending on which bookie you are looking at, you know you have an open race! Willie Mullins always wins this (there have been 5 previous runnings and he has won five of them), so you could be forgiven for just discarding all but his runners. That would still leave four to look at though as he has Pont Aval, Gauloise, Hook Up and Glens of Antrim. Jockey bookings only tell us that Pont Aval is probably their least fancied as the other bookings are who you would expect based on the owner and familiarity with the horse.

Hook up was not far behind Appreciate It, Ballyadam and Blue Lord last time and but for a fall two of them would have been the 1-2 in the Supreme so that is good form. The time before she was however beaten by Royal Kahala which gives that one a strong chance as well and this one is well regarded by the yard. All the Irish form is on very soft again though so we are guessing on the ground. Royal Kahala was in front of Gauloise last time as well, but it is all heavy ground form and you could not be surprised if it was turned around.

The one that has not been beaten by the others is Roseys Hollow who beat Royal Kahala last time and on straight reading of the form would hold Royal Kahala, Hook Up and Gauloise, but I am not sure how reliable that is.

Tellmesomethinggirl steps up from a handicap but is from the all-conquering De Bromhead and Blackmore combination and Glens of Antrim has only run in maidens and did not even win one of them, so this would be a step up (but she could). The Glancing Queen is best priced of the Brits and has won here. She was 8th in the bumper last year and is two from two on decent ground but she has something to find with the Irish runners on official ratings.

My profiling would suggest that Skyace who has improved to win a Listed and Grade 3 race in her last two might have an each-way shout here as could Martello Sky who has won a couple of bumpers and a couple of small novice hurdles and who would need a big step up, but could just be an improver.

Given I cannot get an angle with those at the head of the market, I will stick with Skyace and Martello Sky each way more in hope than confidence I will also probably perm the front four in the market in tricasts in case the Irish Form is too good and given Willie Mullins always wins, I will back the one of his I like best which is Hook Up.

Kim Muir (16.50)

Things do not get easier in the last! Mount Ida is favourite but was beaten a mile in the mares novice hurdle here last year. Novices have a good record in these handicaps but at the prices, I am happy to leave this one alone. Hold The Note does not win enough for me to consider him and Plan of Attack has 2 pulled ups and a 20 length beating in the last three runs. Yes they were better races, and he was 4th here last year but I won’t back horses with that profile unless I have strong reason to explain the recent form. Some bounce back and win, but many don’t and I am happy to just let it go when they do.

I have some interest in Shantou Flyer who has run well here before, but he is getting on and is the type who I could see being placed but I would be surprised if he won. I would have put a line through Deise Aba until he won last time and now he intrigues me. He was 5th last year just behind Plan of Attack and could run well. Musical Slave gas no form left-handed but I do like Morning Vicar. He is a novice and he will like the ground and I think he has a big chance here at a decent price. Storm Control has won twice here but he has no form in big fields and was pulled ip last time as was Kilfilum Cross. Milandford just has three runs (all 2nd) so lacks experience and Bob Mahler has done nothing since he was 3rd here last year. Having waded through all the profiles I cannot see others I like except maybe Beau Bay who I would give a squeak to at a big price.

I will back Morning Vicar each way and have a small each way on Beau Bay and Deise Aba. Shantou Flyer place only appeals as well.