Cheltenham - Day 2

Some brilliant performances on Day 1 of the Festival, but with so many favourites winning it was never going to be a good day for me as I like to support some outsiders against the short-priced horses. My analysis ended up being a "horses to avoid" list so on the basis that it cannot be any worse (it could be as bad though!), I thought I would just dust off and go again!

Ballymore (13.20)

The front three in the market all look like they could be special. Bob Ollinger looks solid, he has been impressive and has already won at this level. All his wins came on very soft ground though and it is drying at Cheltenham. At the prices, he does not look value although he is a likely winner. The reason he is no value is that I also cannot poke any holes in Gaillard Du Mesneil (who has been well backed) or Bravemansgame. This is a cracking contest with all three being grade 1 winners. 

At the prices, I would suggest Bravemansgame is the best value. He is the longest priced of the three and he is the most proven on better ground as well as being top on my speed ratings. He is my pick at the head of the market, but I cannot ignore the unbeaten Bear Ghylls who must be value as he comes from a smaller stable and whilst it sounds crazy to back a horse that was 8th last time and ran out the time before, I am going to have a few quid each-way on Does He Know. He has won twice here including a Grade 2, the runout can be forgiven and he clearly hated heavy ground last time. On better ground, he is definitely overpriced.

Brown Advisory Novice Chase (13.55)

Monkfish looks a monster of a horse and could be favourite for the Gold Cup if he was running there. I would have had a bet without the favourite if I could find one as I could not persuade myself of the value of any of the others. I will just back Monkfish and watch!

Coral Cup (14.30)

This is a massively competitive handicap. The topweights all have decent enough form in grade company and I could not put you off Thomas Darby, Grand Roi or Koshari. Monte Cristo is high enough in the weights for what he has achieved but looks to have loads of potential and another Henderson runner Craigneiche is unexposed and could win this, but the market has spotted him and he is a short price. Guard Your Dreams has been well-backed and has a shout as well.

Paul Kealy (Racing Post) made a good case for Dysart Diamond this morning and I was persuaded to add him to my list. He should be OK on the ground and is unexposed. Botox Has has also been running at a higher level and has winning course form. His handicap mark is drifting down to the level that he last won at and I like his profile here. It is so open that I would prefer to look for a big priced one and my profile analysis threw up two big priced ones here in Boreham Bill and Tea Clipper. They both should be suited by conditions and at huge prices might be worth a few quid each way.

Champion Chase (15.05)

This is really tricky as I really cannot see past Chacun Pour Soi here, he looks different class. This might be a race for betting without the favourite, but I am struggling to split the rest!

I might play some forecasts with Put The Kettle on and Notebook. The former has brilliant course form and the latter did finish in front of him last time, but has disappointed at the track notably in the Arkle last season. Both have been following Chacun home this season.

Politologue won this last year and has not done much wrong since aside from being well-beaten by First Flow who is unbeaten over fences stepping through novices to handicaps and then a graded win. 

Greaneteen has a nice profile and Rouge Vif has never been out of the places on good to soft or better ground and was third to Put The Kettle on here last year on ground softer than he would like. 

Nube Negra and Sceau Royal are both recent winners as well and could not be ruled out, making this a real head-scratcher.

I have done some forecasts and backed Rouge Vif and Greaneteen each way without the favourite, but I am far from confident!

Cross Country (15.40)

This is no easier. Easysland is odds on and Tiger Roll is 2nd favourite. That was also the case in November when they were 4th and Pulled Up. Kingswell Theatre won that and was then tailed off over course and distance behind Some Neck in December. That form line says Some Neck will win by a mile, but I don’t think that is believable!

Le Breuil and Balko Des Flos are experienced horses trying cross country and I never like backing such horses first time over these obstacles. 

I hope Tiger Roll wins, I think Easysland probably will win and I think Some Neck each way is the safest betting play, but frankly, it is a dangerous race to be punting!

Grand Annual (16.15)

Two serial non-winners at the top of the market in Embittered and Entoucas. Both are good at getting placed, but they are short for horses that do not win. I would really like the chances of the latter if he would win a few races! Zanza is next and is unplaced on three starts at Cheltenham which is never a good sign. I like Ibleo on profile and he has been well backed overnight.

I could poke holes in a lot of the others so alongside Ibleo, I will back Amoola Gold who has a solid profile. I have also backed Chosen Mate who has a nice profile and the young jockey seems well-regarded and is riding some big horses for the yard. The horse won this last year and can do so again. 

On The Slopes was a big tipster horse, but the profile looks poor.

Champion Bumper (16.50)

All the Irish Bumper form has been on soft and heavy ground and the key to this will be who handles the better ground best. For that reason, it looks dangerous to be backing the two market leaders at the prices. Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard could be really nice horses, but at that price to be assuming they will repeat their form on the ground is dangerous. 

I have chanced Three Stripe Life as there is a bit more in the price on him and at a bigger price, I have a bit each way on Grangee who is not the stables first choice but Willie Mullins has won this with second and third choices in the past and could do again!