Cheaper to keep’em
The phrase "Cheaper to keep'em" aptly summarizes the economic and logistical realities surrounding undocumented immigrants in the United States. Multiple studies and analyses support this idea when examining the costs and benefits of their presence versus mass deportation.
Undocumented immigrants represent approximately 3.3% of the U.S. population. The Department of Homeland Security estimates that as of 2022, 11 million immigrants are in the country illegally. Some have been here for decades. Some have arrived as part of a larger migration pattern seen in recent years.
Mass Deportation
How would 11 million people be gathered up and removed from the country? Trump plans to authorize workplace raids, rely on U.S. military and National Guard to round up migrants, and engage local law enforcement.
The Trump mass deportation plan is his absolutist solution to immigration. A longer term, more comprehensive solution could have passed this year. The Senate immigration bill this year had bipartisan support, and it would have appropriated funds for increased border security, streamlining new immigration officers and agents, and allowed Homeland Security to close the border if too many asylum requests were being made.
The bill was, in fact, hailed by many as the first serious effort in a decade to address immigration. Trump lobbied hard against the bill so that he could use it in his campaign on Biden's immigration policies this year. His efforts collapsed any Republican support for the reform and the bill did indeed fade away.
Reducing Drug Trafficking in U.S.
Research consistently shows that the majority of undocumented immigrants are not involved in criminal enterprises like drug trafficking. A report from the Cato Institute notes that immigrants, including undocumented ones, are less likely to commit crimes than native-born citizens, which aligns with the broader evidence about their economic contributions and societal integration.
Major drug trafficking operations in the U.S. are typically orchestrated by sophisticated cartels like Mexico's Sinaloa or Jalisco New Generation Cartel. These networks rely on a small, highly organized group of operatives rather than large numbers of undocumented immigrants to smuggle drugs across borders. Nearly all traffickers are legal residents or citizens, invalidating the idea that undocumented immigrants are primary contributors to this activity.
The vast majority of drugs, particularly fentanyl, cocaine, and methamphetamine, enter the U.S. through legal ports of entry rather than through undocumented migrants crossing the border. According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), traffickers conceal drugs in vehicles, shipments, or with individuals who are U.S citizens, hold visas or other documentation to cross legally.
Reducing Crime in the U.S.
Deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants would likely have no noticeable impact on reducing overall crime since they are not a major source of criminal activity. Studies from the Cato Institute and other sources demonstrate that undocumented immigrants have lower crime rates than native-born Americans. In Texas (a state with detailed crime data), undocumented immigrants were 50% less likely to be arrested for violent crimes compared to native-born citizens. Another study published in Criminology found no evidence that undocumented immigrants increase violent or property crime in U.S. neighborhoods
Legal Ramifications
The Alien Enemies Act of 1798 grants the U.S. president the power to remove or restrict the movements of foreign nationals considered to be "alien enemies" during times of war or national emergency. The act specifically allows for the removal of non-citizens from the U.S. if they are deemed a threat to national security or involved in acts of hostility. This law, part of the broader Alien and Sedition Acts , is historically linked to the powers granted to the president during wartime or in response to foreign threats.
In the context of undocumented migrants, the Alien Enemies Act could theoretically be invoked during a national emergency, but its application to the deportation of non-citizens for being in the U.S. unlawfully—rather than for active hostile actions—would likely face significant legal and constitutional challenges. The law itself does not explicitly authorize mass deportations of undocumented migrants who are not deemed as posing a direct threat or enemy status.
Alien Enemies Act is intended to address foreign nationals from countries at war with the U.S. or those perceived as a direct threat to national security, rather than simply being undocumented. Applying this law for broad deportation actions against undocumented migrants without evidence of direct threat would also run afoul of constitutional protections, such as the right to due process and equal protection under the law.
Moreover, legal experts suggest that using the Alien Enemies Act for large-scale deportations could face scrutiny under the Posse Comitatus Act (which restricts the military's role in domestic law enforcement) and other constitutional protections related to due process.
This law, which was enacted in 1878, restricts the use of military forces in domestic law enforcement activities, including immigration enforcement. As such, employing the military for deportation efforts would be considered a violation of the Posse Comitatus Act, unless explicitly authorized by Congress or in the event of a declared national emergency.
It would also raise concerns about civil liberties and the limits of executive power.
While President-elect Donald Trump has suggested dismantling migrant criminal networks and pursuing aggressive enforcement, including military involvement, the broader scope of such an initiative would require significant legal justifications that go far beyond the Alien Enemies Act
Labor Ramifications
Undocumented immigrants fill essential roles in industries such as agriculture, construction, food service, and domestic work. In doing so, they contribute billions of dollars annually to the economy through their labor. For example, they help sustain industries that might otherwise face labor shortages, ensuring stable food supply chains and affordable housing projects.
While representing 3.3% of the population, undocumented immigrants make up a larger percentage of certain industries’ workforces, amplifying their economic significance. Their contributions often disproportionately benefit communities where labor-intensive industries dominate.
Cost Challenges
Mass deportation is a logistically and financially daunting proposition. Current studies estimate that executing such an effort would cost the government upwards of $100–200 billion initially, in addition to the long-term economic damage from labor market disruptions. These factors make it difficult to balance the immediate fiscal impacts of lost revenue with the broader economic consequences. Beyond direct costs, the U.S. economy would face losses of approximately $434 billion in GDP annually, along with labor shortages in critical industries like agriculture, construction, and hospitality.
Tax Ramifications
Despite their legal status, undocumented immigrants contribute significantly to state and local taxes, including sales, property, and income taxes where applicable. In 2023, undocumented immigrants in the United States were estimated to have contributed approximately $96.7 billion in taxes, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. This includes around $59.4 billion in federal taxes and $37.3 billion in state and local taxes. These contributions fund public services, including programs like Social Security and Medicare, which many undocumented immigrants cannot directly access due to their status. Their contributions highlight the economic impact of undocumented immigrants, even amidst President-elect Donald Trump’s announcements surrounding their mass deportation from the U.S.
If the mass deportation of 11 million undocumented immigrants were to occur, resulting in a loss of approximately $96.7 billion in annual tax revenue, the government would face significant challenges in replacing this funding. The government could attempt to reduce spending to offset the lost revenue via cuts to federal programs, infrastructure projects, or defense spending which would. have significant negative economic consequences. The most direct and likely approach would involve raising taxes on individuals and businesses to make up the revenue gap. This would involve higher federal income tax rates, increased payroll taxes, or changes to corporate tax policies.
Alternatives
Alternatively, policies aimed at legalizing undocumented immigrants and providing them pathways to citizenship could enhance their economic contribution, leading to increased tax revenue rather than losses. Work authorization alone could increase their contributions significantly, from $96.7 billion to an estimated $137 billion annually.
According to the Center for American Progress, comprehensive immigration reform could increase U.S. GDP by approximately $1.5 trillion over a decade, largely through higher productivity and consumption.
Mass deportation is a bad idea on many levels and will have crippling effects on the US economy.