Chatting with ChatGPT about polling

Polling shows that Vice-President Harris has a bigger lead among women than former President Trump does among men. Women also vote in larger numbers than men. That seems in tension with polls that show the race to be a virtual tie overall. So I asked ChatGPT to explain.

I think it did a reasonable job, but if you are hoping this exchange will prove that your favored candidate is doing better than you thought, that may not work out for you (in either direction).

QL: I have seen a couple of polls reported which suggest Vice-President Harris's lead is greater among women than former President Trump's lead among men. Is that a consistent finding?

ChatGPT

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Yes, there is a consistent trend showing that Vice President Kamala Harris's support among women is generally stronger than former President Donald Trump's support among men. Recent polling, such as from 19th News/SurveyMonkey and Times/Siena, indicates that Harris holds a double-digit lead with women. For instance, one survey showed Harris leading among women by 13 points, while Trump leads among men by around 8-11 points, depending on the region and poll. This gap also appears in battleground states, where Harris's advantage with women ranges from 16 to 20 points, while Trump’s support among men remains significant but smaller on average.This gender divide extends across demographics, with Harris performing particularly well among Black and Latina women, while Trump leads with White and Latino men. Analysts suggest that these patterns reflect long-term trends but also heightened polarization along gender lines in the 2024 election, as each candidate has strategically focused messaging on key voter concerns such as healthcare and economic stability, which resonate differently across these groups.

QL:

Is it true that historically women have voted in greater numbers than men?

ChatGPT:

Yes, it is generally true that women have voted in greater numbers than men in the United States for several decades. This trend began in the late 20th century. By the 1980s, women were consistently voting at higher rates than men—a pattern that has continued and even widened in more recent elections. According to the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP) and U.S. Census Bureau data, women's voter turnout has surpassed men's in every U.S. presidential election since 1980. For example, in the 2020 election, around 68% of eligible female voters cast ballots, compared to approximately 65% of eligible male voters.

The reasons for this trend include factors like women's increasing levels of education, which correlates with higher voter turnout, and a growing engagement with social and political issues. This gender gap in turnout often translates into a greater impact of women voters on election outcomes, as they comprise a slightly larger share of the electorate. Additionally, women’s voting preferences have tended to diverge from men’s, with women generally favoring Democratic candidates more strongly in recent decades, though this can vary significantly by age, race, and other demographics.

QL:

It is also true that women have the biggest numerical advantage over men among seniors, the group most likely to vote?

ChatGPT:

Yes, it is true that women hold a numerical advantage over men among seniors, who are typically the age group most likely to vote. This demographic trend is partly due to women's longer life expectancy, which results in more women than men in older age brackets. According to U.S. Census Bureau data and reports from organizations like the Pew Research Center, women outnumber men by a significant margin among Americans aged 65 and older. This discrepancy becomes even more pronounced with increasing age, contributing to a larger proportion of female voters among senior citizens. Since seniors also have the highest voter turnout rates, this female demographic predominance has notable political implications. Senior women tend to participate actively in elections, influencing policies on healthcare, social security, and other issues particularly relevant to older populations. Their consistent turnout and demographic weight amplify their impact on election outcomes.

QL:

Taking together the greater turnout among women and the bigger lead among women than men, how is this consistent with polls which suggest the race is tied or that Trump has a small advantage?

ChatGPT:

The apparent contradiction between women's greater turnout and lead for Kamala Harris, and polling that shows a close or Trump-leaning race, can be explained by looking at a few factors that affect voter demographics, intensity of support, and distribution across key states:

Intensity of Support and Turnout: While women generally turn out at higher rates, turnout intensity varies within specific demographic groups. For example, White men and White non-college-educated men—groups where Trump often leads—are also highly mobilized and have a history of turning out in large numbers, especially in competitive races. Similarly, Harris’s support among younger women is substantial, but younger demographics generally have lower turnout rates than older voters, which might temper her numerical advantage among women voters.

Geographic Distribution: The U.S. Electoral College means that how support is spread across states can impact overall poll averages. Trump’s strong support among men, particularly White men without college degrees, tends to be concentrated in key swing states with large electoral weights, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Harris’s lead among women includes many in states where she is already expected to win, like California and New York, which do not affect the electoral outcome in a close race.

Margins and Shifts within Demographic Groups: The gender gap in this race doesn’t mean all women lean heavily toward Harris; in fact, White women are more split, with Trump holding an edge among White non-college-educated women, who are often a decisive swing group. Additionally, Trump’s margin among men, particularly White men, has historically been substantial and often offsets gains made among women voters for Democratic candidates.

Polling Variability and Error Margins: Lastly, slight polling shifts within demographics, especially when pollsters weigh factors like likely voter models and turnout projections, can make a statistically tied race appear very close or give a minor edge to one candidate, even with significant demographic gaps.

So, while Harris benefits from higher turnout among women, Trump's strong performance among men, particularly in pivotal regions and among high-turnout groups, is enough to balance the scales or even give him a slight advantage in the aggregate polling.

QL:

The question of where Trump has an advantage is certainly relevant to the Electoral College, but not to the aggregate vote. There seems tension between Harris having a lead among women of all age groups that is bigger than Trump's lead among men combined with the greater tendency of women to vote and polls which suggest the race is essentially tied in terms of total votes.

ChatGPT:

You're correct in observing that if Harris has a substantial lead among women and women tend to vote more than men, one might expect her to hold a clearer lead in the aggregate popular vote, rather than a tie. Several factors explain why this doesn’t necessarily translate to a significant advantage in total polling:

Magnitude of Gender Gaps: The gender gap in voting doesn’t affect all groups equally. Although Harris leads among women overall, her advantage is strongest with particular demographics, such as Black and Latina women, who may represent smaller shares of the electorate. Meanwhile, Trump’s support among men, especially White men, is significant in terms of overall numbers. This can balance out aggregate popular vote polling, even if the gender gap appears lopsided.

Support Levels by Age: While Harris does well among women of all age groups, Trump tends to perform better with older voters, particularly older White men. Since seniors vote at the highest rates, Trump’s relative advantage in this high-turnout group partly offsets Harris’s lead among younger women, who are generally less likely to vote.

Education and Income Factors: When gender is examined alongside factors like education and income, additional nuances emerge. For example, Trump’s lead among White non-college-educated men is particularly robust, and they turn out at relatively high rates. Conversely, while Harris is popular among college-educated women, turnout for younger college-educated women can vary more. This balance of turnout differences within gender subgroups complicates aggregate vote predictions.

Undecided Voters and Likely Voter Models: Polling methodologies and adjustments for likely voters also play a role. In close elections, slight shifts among undecided voters or adjustments based on likely voter behavior can have outsized impacts on the perceived tie in aggregate polling. This is particularly the case if male voters who lean toward Trump are weighted more heavily as likely voters, based on past voting patterns.

Thus, even with an overall gender gap in favor of Harris, these other factors allow for close popular vote projections. This dynamic, with women’s higher turnout balanced by Trump’s strength in specific male-dominated demographics, accounts for why the race appears close in total vote counts despite women’s stronger turnout and Harris's overall lead with them.

QL:

So, although Harris has a lead among women, who are more likely to vote, this is not the only demographic split. Trump has a lead among older people as a whole, who are also more likely to vote?

ChatGPT:

Yes, that's correct. While Harris has an edge among women—a group that tends to have a higher turnout—Trump has a lead among older voters, who also turn out at notably high rates. This age-based split is particularly influential because older Americans (often defined as 65+) have the highest voting rates among all age groups, significantly impacting the overall electorate. Polls consistently show that Trump performs strongly with these older voters, especially among older White men, a group that votes reliably and in large numbers.

Additionally, Harris’s lead among women is often offset by the high support Trump receives from men without college degrees. The combined effects of these demographic splits—higher turnout among women balanced by strong Republican support among older and White working-class voters—create a close race in the aggregate vote. This interaction highlights how multiple demographic factors, not just gender or age alone, influence election dynamics, resulting in the competitive polling seen in a nationwide race.

QL:

The margin of error in polling may also be a factor. If pollsters tell people their purpose is to find out how women are voting or that the poll is commissioned by the National Organization of Women (for example) that might influence the frame of mind that people are in when answering the questions. Though, precisely for this reason, it would be bad practice by polling companies to divulge that information.

ChatGPT:

Yes, the margin of error in polling can indeed play a role, especially in a tight race where even small shifts in support can affect perceived outcomes. Polling companies generally avoid disclosing information that could create bias in respondents’ answers. For example, if respondents know the poll is focused on women’s voting behavior or is commissioned by an organization like the National Organization for Women, they may consciously or unconsciously alter their responses. This phenomenon, known as response bias, occurs when the context or perceived intent of a survey influences how people answer questions.

To mitigate these issues, reputable polling organizations typically mask the sponsor’s identity and avoid framing questions in ways that might hint at specific interests. Instead, they use neutral phrasing and randomized question ordering to help ensure that respondents are not led in a particular direction. Nonetheless, slight biases can still emerge due to factors like social desirability bias (where people provide answers they think are socially acceptable) or acquiescence bias (where they agree with statements regardless of their true opinion), and these can affect responses in politically polarized environments.

Additionally, even with high methodological standards, sampling errors and random variation mean that poll results may occasionally fluctuate within the margin of error. This is particularly relevant in a close race, where small changes within demographic groups could swing polling averages one way or the other, sometimes making it seem as though the race is tighter or more one-sided than it actually is.

QL:

The margin of error is likely to be higher among polls which separate out male and female responses, because the sample is necessarily smaller.

ChatGPT:

Yes, that's correct. Polls that separate responses by gender often have a higher margin of error for each subgroup because the sample sizes for men and women are smaller than for the overall sample. When polling a subset of the population (like women only or men only), the reduced sample size means there is less statistical certainty, which increases the margin of error. For instance, in a poll of 1,000 people with an overall margin of error of about ±3%, the margin of error for just the female respondents (if they are 500 of the 1,000) could increase to around ±4-5% due to the smaller group size.

This larger margin of error can affect the perceived size of gender gaps in voting preferences, potentially exaggerating or understating differences in male and female support levels. To mitigate these challenges, pollsters sometimes conduct larger surveys or weight responses to ensure demographic balance, but even these measures can only reduce, not eliminate, the increased margin of error when breaking down responses by subgroups.

Pollsters and analysts, therefore, interpret these segmented results with caution, particularly in close races where even small differences may impact reported outcomes.

QL:

It has been the case in the past that pollsters have made similar errors in sampling - failing to anticipate greater turnout in some groups, for example - so it is possible that the general polls are under-sampling women, though you would still expect women to be a majority in all samples.

ChatGPT:

Yes, historically, polling has sometimes under- or over-sampled certain demographic groups, leading to errors in election predictions. For example, pollsters sometimes miss changes in turnout among specific groups, such as when a demographic votes at higher-than-expected rates or shifts its preferences. This risk is relevant for gender-specific turnout trends, as women tend to vote at higher rates than men, so under-sampling women could skew results, especially in a close race.

However, it’s important to note that reputable pollsters strive to sample women accurately, as women consistently make up a majority of voters. Most modern polling practices include demographic quotas to ensure that the gender distribution in the sample mirrors that of the voting population. Pollsters also adjust their results using weighting, where responses from under-represented groups are given more weight to better reflect the likely electorate.

Despite these safeguards, polling errors can still occur if turnout patterns shift unexpectedly. For example, if young women turn out at higher rates than anticipated, or if certain demographic groups within women (like non-college-educated or Black women) have turnout fluctuations, these nuances might not be fully captured, especially in traditional likely voter models. This is why in close elections, small polling misalignments can lead to projections that may not entirely match actual voting outcomes.

Furthermore, the complex dynamics of voter behavior, such as last-minute decision shifts or unexpected mobilization efforts, can add to this challenge, creating room for the possibility that women’s turnout could be underrepresented or misinterpreted in polling, despite generally being sampled as a majority.

QL:

Democrats are plainly hoping that younger women will turn out in large numbers, driven by the issue of abortion.

ChatGPT:

Yes, the Democratic Party is indeed counting on high turnout from younger women, especially due to heightened focus on abortion rights since the Supreme Court's 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade. This ruling led to increased mobilization and political activism, particularly among younger women, who are more likely to support reproductive rights. Abortion has become a key motivating factor for younger female voters, especially in states where abortion access has been restricted or banned since Dobbs.

Polling data and post-Dobbs election outcomes indicate that abortion is now a defining issue for many younger women voters. For example, younger voters were instrumental in Democratic successes in 2022 midterms, where states with abortion measures on the ballot saw higher-than-expected voter turnout among younger women. Analysts expect abortion to remain a mobilizing issue, particularly for younger women in swing states and among demographic groups that might otherwise lean toward lower turnout.

Democrats hope that this issue will not only increase turnout among young women but also expand the electorate by motivating new and infrequent voters who prioritize abortion rights. This strategy assumes that reproductive rights remain a central issue heading into future elections, with both campaigns and advocacy groups continuing to emphasize it to sustain momentum among younger women voters.

QL:

The issue may have been more powerful in the mid-terms, where overall turnout is lower.

ChatGPT:

You're correct that the issue of abortion may have had a more pronounced impact during the midterms, which generally see lower overall turnout compared to presidential elections. In the 2022 midterms, many analysts observed that abortion rights were a key motivator for many voters, particularly women, driving higher turnout among those who might not typically engage in midterm elections.

For instance, in states where abortion rights were on the ballot, like Michigan and California, turnout surged, particularly among younger women. This indicates that the abortion issue resonated strongly, motivating those voters who may have been previously less likely to participate in a midterm election

Looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election, the dynamics might differ.

While abortion remains a crucial issue, presidential elections generally attract higher voter turnout across all demographics, which could dilute the specific impact of abortion as a mobilizing factor. Additionally, the broader political landscape—including economic concerns, inflation, and other social issues—will likely play significant roles in shaping voter priorities and turnout in 2024.

Ultimately, while the abortion issue was pivotal in the midterms, its influence in the presidential election will depend on how it interacts with other key issues and voter sentiments at that time. The upcoming election will reveal whether abortion can maintain its mobilizing effect among younger women in a higher-stakes presidential context. For further insights, you can explore analyses from sources like The New York Times and Politico.

QL:

There are specific votes on abortion in some states, which could tilt the turnout there. In particular, Florida seems reasonably safe for Trump, but if pollsters are failing to anticipate the scale of voting by young women that could change.

ChatGPT:

You're right to highlight that specific ballot measures on abortion could significantly influence voter turnout in certain states, including Florida. While current polling suggests that Florida leans toward Trump, the dynamics could shift if young women mobilize in greater numbers, especially around abortion issues.

In Florida, there are ongoing discussions about potential ballot initiatives related to abortion rights, which could drive turnout among voters who are passionate about this issue. If young women perceive these initiatives as critical to their rights and mobilize to vote in higher numbers, it could alter the electoral landscape significantly, potentially narrowing Trump's advantage.

Polling has shown that young women are increasingly engaged on this issue, and if their turnout is underestimated, it could lead to surprises in the election results. For example, analysts observed similar effects in the 2022 midterms, where states with abortion-related measures saw elevated voter engagement among young women. While Florida is viewed as a key state for Trump, the potential impact of young women's turnout driven by specific abortion votes adds an unpredictable element to the electoral equation. As the election approaches, it will be crucial to monitor how these factors play out in polling and actual voter behavior.

QL:

Thanks.

ChatGPT:

You're welcome! If you have any more questions or need further information, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!