ChatGPT's Belief in the Power of Nature Dependency to Transform our Economy

Like any tool humans have ever made, Artificial Intelligence can be used for both good and bad. I've been tinkering with it more and more to see how it could help us get humanity to give nature it's true value. And, I should also note, I was looking for some hope in what have been a very dark and worrisome last couple of weeks here stateside.

Yesterday, on a whim, I asked ChatGPT for their opinion on one of my core hypotheses and the challenges to achieving it. It's answer somewhat shocked me. And I'm not by any means saying that ChatGPT can predict the future, but what if humanity, right now, somewhat believes that it can? Will simply sharing it's predictions cause them to come true? Who knows, but reading it's response did give me some hope for our future and maybe we should be doing more hypothesis testing with ChatGPT and other LLMs.

And when I asked for the challenges in the way of achieving one of my core hypotheses, it not only gave an exhaustive list, it gave some potential solutions.

I asked two the following two prompts in succession:

1. What would happen if all companies acutely knew and had to disclose their nature dependencies and business value dependent on nature?

2. What are the biggest challenges for corporates to quantify their dependence on nature?

And to give us all some hope, this was ChatGPTs conclusion to that second question,

"Conclusion: Nature Dependency Disclosure is Inevitable—But Companies Must Adapt Fast"

Prompt #1: What would happen if all companies acutely knew and had to disclose their nature dependencies and business value dependent on nature?

ChatGPT Response

If all companies acutely knew and had to disclose their nature dependencies and the business value dependent on nature, it would trigger a fundamental economic and financial transformation. This would shift business strategies, market valuations, investor behavior, and policy decisions on a global scale.

Key Consequences of Full Nature Dependency Disclosure

1. Financial Markets Would Recognize Nature as a Core Economic Asset

?? Market repricing:

• Companies highly dependent on nature (agriculture, fisheries, forestry, textiles, mining, etc.) would see their valuations tied directly to ecosystem health.
• Financial markets would price in nature risk as a financial liability, leading to capital flight from nature-destructive sectors.

?? Investment shifts:

• Investors would prioritize nature-positive companies that manage and reduce their environmental footprint.
• New financial products (biodiversity credits, ecosystem services payments, and sustainability-linked loans) would boom.

?? Impact:

• Stock markets would see value shifts favoring nature-conscious businesses.
• Nature-related assets (forests, wetlands, pollination services, water supply) would gain financial recognition like traditional capital assets.

2. Corporate Strategies Would Be Transformed

?? Supply chain revolutions:

• Companies would map their entire value chain’s reliance on nature, leading to proactive shifts toward sustainable sourcing.
• High-risk industries (agriculture, construction, energy, and consumer goods) would be forced to rethink production methods.

?? Nature restoration & circular economy:

• Businesses would invest heavily in regenerating natural systems to ensure long-term business viability.
• Circular economy models (waste reduction, closed-loop production) would become mainstream.

?? Impact:

• Businesses embed nature conservation into core operations, not just CSR initiatives.
• Companies that actively restore nature would gain competitive advantages.

3. Governments Would Enforce Nature-Smart Policies Faster

?? Stronger regulations:

• Full nature dependency disclosure would force governments to regulate industries that over-exploit nature (e.g., deforestation, groundwater depletion, fisheries collapse).
• Tax incentives, subsidies, and penalties would be realigned to reflect nature risk exposure.

?? Nature-linked economic policies:

• Governments would recognize ecosystem services (clean water, pollination, soil health) as GDP contributors.
• Legal frameworks for valuing nature in financial and trade agreements would emerge.

?? Impact:

• Environmental enforcement becomes stricter, shifting businesses toward nature-positive practices.
• National economies integrate nature capital accounting into economic planning.

4. Consumer Behavior Would Change Radically

?? Eco-conscious consumption would accelerate:

• With companies disclosing their nature dependencies, consumers would make informed choices about products that rely on ecosystem destruction.
• Brands with high biodiversity risks (fast fashion, palm oil, non-sustainable seafood, etc.) would lose market share.

?? Nature transparency tools:

• AI-powered "nature impact labels" would appear on products, similar to carbon footprint labels.
• Consumers could scan a barcode to see a product’s impact on deforestation, water use, and biodiversity.

?? Impact:

• Nature-positive brands dominate consumer markets.
• Companies with high nature destruction face reputational and financial collapse.

5. New Markets and Business Models Would Emerge

?? Rise of "Nature-as-a-Service" industries:

• Regenerative agriculture, ecosystem restoration, and biodiversity offsets become core business services.
• Startups develop AI-driven biodiversity monitoring, satellite-powered ecosystem tracking, and blockchain-based nature credits.

?? Valuing "invisible" nature services:

• Water purification by forests, carbon sequestration by wetlands, and pollination by bees get direct financial valuation in corporate balance sheets.
• Businesses would pay for maintaining and restoring these services instead of depleting them.

?? Impact:

• Nature-based industries grow exponentially, similar to the carbon market boom.
• Ecosystem restoration becomes a trillion-dollar sector.

Conclusion: The Global Economy Would Shift to a Nature-Positive Model

If companies fully understood and disclosed their nature dependencies, the global economy would shift from extraction-driven growth to nature-driven resilience.

?? Winners:

? Businesses with nature-positive models (regenerative agriculture, ecosystem restoration, sustainable materials).

? Investors backing companies with resilient, low-risk nature dependencies.

? Governments implementing early nature policies, benefiting from stable economies and long-term resource security.

?? Losers:

? High-risk, extractive industries (unsustainable agriculture, logging, overfishing, fossil fuels) that fail to transition.

? Corporations ignoring nature risks, facing divestment, legal action, and market loss.

? Consumers and countries heavily reliant on nature-destructive goods.

?? The Future? Nature becomes a recognized financial asset, and businesses thrive by protecting rather than depleting it.

Would you like a sector-specific breakdown of how industries would need to adapt?

Prompt #2: What are the biggest challenges for corporates to quantify their dependence on nature?

ChatGPT Response:

Quantifying corporate dependence on nature is crucial but highly challenging due to several methodological, data, regulatory, and strategic barriers. Here are the biggest obstacles companies face:

1. Lack of Standardized Metrics & Frameworks

?? No universal methodology:

• Unlike carbon emissions (which have clear metrics like CO? equivalent), nature dependence is complex and multi-dimensional (e.g., water, biodiversity, soil health, pollination).
• Different industries require different measurement approaches, making it hard to compare across sectors.

?? Emerging but fragmented frameworks:

• The Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) provides guidance, but adoption is still early.
• Companies must navigate multiple overlapping ESG, biodiversity, and ecosystem valuation models.

?? Solution:

• Companies need sector-specific tools to quantify and report nature dependencies consistently.

2. Data Gaps & Complexity in Measuring Ecosystem Services

?? Nature’s benefits are difficult to measure in financial terms:

• How do you assign a dollar value to ecosystem services like pollination, clean water, or soil fertility?
• Many companies lack internal expertise to map these dependencies.

?? Spatial and ecosystem-specific challenges:

• Nature dependencies are location-specific (e.g., a soy farm in Brazil depends on different water systems than one in Canada).
• Biodiversity loss is non-linear—a tipping point may lead to sudden collapse rather than gradual decline.

?? Solution:

• Companies need AI, satellite monitoring, and nature-based accounting tools to track ecosystem changes.

3. Hidden Supply Chain Dependencies

?? Many companies don’t know their full supply chain footprint:

• Nature risks are often buried deep in supply chains—especially in commodities like soy, palm oil, beef, and timber.
• Indirect dependencies (e.g., reliance on pollinators for crops or groundwater for manufacturing) are often overlooked.

?? Trade and supply chain complexity:

• Large companies source raw materials from multiple, geographically dispersed suppliers, making data collection difficult.
• Supplier disclosure is often weak, especially in regions with poor environmental oversight.

?? Solution:

• Blockchain and satellite technology can improve traceability of nature-dependent supply chains.

4. Short-Term Business Focus vs. Long-Term Nature Risks

?? Corporate priorities favor short-term financial returns:

• Most executives focus on quarterly earnings rather than long-term nature resilience.
• Nature degradation is often a slow, cumulative process—making it easy to ignore until a crisis hits (e.g., crop failures, water shortages).

?? Nature dependencies don’t appear in traditional financial accounting:

• CFOs typically don’t factor ecosystem services into P&L statements.
• There’s no clear way to convert biodiversity loss into financial risk projections—unlike climate risk modeling.

?? Solution:

• New accounting frameworks (natural capital accounting, ecosystem valuation models) need to be integrated into corporate financial reporting.

5. Uncertainty in Future Nature-Related Risks

?? Nature risks are unpredictable and systemic:

• Biodiversity loss and climate change are interconnected, making it hard to separate nature dependencies from climate impacts.
• Tipping points (e.g., Amazon rainforest dieback, coral reef collapse) could cause sudden, irreversible changes.

?? Lack of scenario modeling:

• Most companies have climate stress tests but not nature stress tests.
• Predicting how ecosystem collapse will impact supply chains, costs, and market access is highly complex.

?? Solution:

• Nature scenario planning tools (like the TNFD’s “LEAP” approach) must become standard.

6. Lack of Regulatory & Investor Pressure (But This is Changing)

?? Few legal requirements for nature dependency disclosure (so far):

• Unlike carbon reporting (which is mandated in many regions), nature dependency disclosure is mostly voluntary.
• The EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) are changing this, but uptake is slow.

?? Investors are starting to ask for data—but many companies are unprepared:

• Banks and insurers are beginning to assess biodiversity risk in loan portfolios.
• Green finance mechanisms (biodiversity credits, nature-based bonds) will soon make nature valuation essential.

?? Solution:

• Companies must proactively adopt TNFD-aligned reporting before regulations mandate it.

Conclusion: Nature Dependency Disclosure is Inevitable—But Companies Must Adapt Fast

?? Challenges:

• Data complexity, supply chain opacity, short-termism, and lack of standardization.
• Most companies are unprepared for upcoming regulations and investor scrutiny.

?? Opportunities:

• AI, satellite monitoring, and blockchain transparency can solve major data gaps.
• Natural capital accounting and ecosystem valuation will soon be mainstream in financial reporting.
• Early movers in nature-positive strategies will gain competitive advantages.

?? What’s Next? Would you like a breakdown of specific tools & methodologies for quantifying nature dependencies in different industries? ??