Is ChatGPT a Kodak Moment for Google?

I never thought I would actually get to see a potential “Kodak moment” develop right in front of me; and yet, OpenAI and Microsoft have managed to do just that. They have created a conundrum for Google to decide on the workflows of its search business and have threatened its revenue stream.

At the heart of all of this ruckus is a product called “ChatGPT”. Let’s quickly cover what ChatGPT is.

What is ChatGPT?

OpenAI recently released ChatGPT to the general public and it has been the fastest app in tech history to reach a hundred million users. For comparison, TikTok did it in nine months while it took ChatGPT only two months.

ChatGPT is a disruptive technology because it has the potential to fundamentally change the way we interact with computers. Traditionally, users have to learn specific programming languages or use predefined commands to accomplish specific tasks. ChatGPT, on the other hand, allows users to interact with it using a natural language, which is much more intuitive and user-friendly.

What can it do?

ChatGPT is what is known as “Generative AI”, which means it can generate content that may have never existed before. This combined with its ability to understand natural language allows it to do many important tasks.

For example: it can be used as a virtual assistant to answer common questions, generate content for news articles, social media posts, poetry and translate text from one language to another. ChatGPT can also write programming code in Python.

Why is this significant

ChatGPT is significant because it is the second wave of disruptive AI. When Google was launched, it brought about the first wave of disruptive AI. Its search algorithm was superior to that of Yahoo and delivered more accurate and relevant search results. Google invented a method known as PageRank, which ranked and sorted data based on its importance.

ChatGPT goes one step further than merely ranking the data and actually generates the content that is relevant to the query made by a human. This is such a novel concept that it will bring about changes of magnitude in the coming months and years.

How Microsoft made the deal of the century

Microsoft invested one billion dollars into OpenAI in 2019 and gave them access to Azure Cloud Services. This partnership afforded OpenAI much needed cash, decreased its operating costs, and allowed it to scale. In exchange, OpenAI agreed to license some of its intellectual property to Microsoft. This deal gave Microsoft immediate access to some of the best AI technology.

The ripples from the impact of this partnership between Microsoft and OpenAI were felt on February 7th, when Microsoft revealed its grand plan for AI. At the venue, Microsoft’s messaging was clear - that it was taking aim at Google and its Edge browser and Bing search engine would be able to do three new things: Answer your questions, chat with you, and create new things. The whole presentation was a hit and was reminiscent of how Steve Jobs used to present.????????

Code Red at Google

Microsoft’s presentation caused a panic at Google. Primarily because Google understood that for Microsoft, Bing is just another product and its revenue is very diversified. While for Google, search is their bread & butter.

Bing’s market share is so low that it can take more risks and has nothing to lose. Any new users Bing gains are gravy. Google on the other hand has its market share to defend, can only take calculated risks, and has to tread carefully. Microsoft is not only competing in search but also in web browsers by integrating ChatGPT AI with Microsoft Edge.????????

Why is this a Kodak moment?

This could be a Kodak moment for Google if Google does not move fast and defend its territory.?

Take Yahoo for instance. Lest we forget, Yahoo was the Google of the early 2000s. It used to be the go-to place for anyone and everyone using the internet. Yahoo started as a web directory of popular websites and then morphed into a search engine known as Yahoo Search. At the time, Yahoo dominated the internet through Yahoo News, Yahoo Mail, and Yahoo Search.

In 1998, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, the founders of Google, approached Yahoo to sell Google for $1 million, but Yahoo refused the offer. The primary reason for refusal was that Yahoo Search worked by searching its own directories; while Google Search was based on the PageRank algorithms. For Yahoo, implementing Google’s PageRank system would have ended its users’ reliance on its web directories and would’ve lowered its profits.

Disappointed from seeing their offer rejected, Larry Page and Sergey Brin launched Google and it grew and became insanely profitable. Fast forward to today, it is Google that is the entry point for exploring the internet.

And now, Microsoft has introduced a new way to search by integrating generative AI. This could start the Yahoo story all over again.????????

Closing Thoughts??

Some may offer a rebuttal that given Google’s dominance and share of the search market, it will never let Bing be the king. However, this line of thinking is missing the point entirely. In his interview, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella clearly stated that their objective is not to overtake Google but to increase their market share with “any'' margin. Microsoft will welcome any increase in its search user base.

Time will tell who will win the AI race. Google successfully took its throne from Yahoo, now we will see if they can defend it!