ChatGPT and forecasting macro

First off, and possibly this might disappoint some, this post is written by a human, who has a certain penchant for burgers, as opposed to ChatGPT, who prefers to digest CPU cycles and TCP packets. Twitter and LinkedIn are awash with examples of questions for ChatGPT and their answers. I have to admit some of the responses from ChatGPT are remarkably detailed, and in many cases I think most people would struggle to tell them apart from a human. Perhaps the most human-like element is the absolute confidence ChatGPT has in many of its responses, without much in the way of references, or simply references which are made up!

But jokes aside, there are many use cases. One particular use case, is asking programming questions. Often the workflow for coding involves some sort of Google search, which invariably results in a Stack Overflow page which gives you hints. ChatGPT appears to supercharge this whole process, creating very specific answers, to programming questions you might usually simply Google. That isn't to say it's not perfect. You still need to be interpret the code it gives you, and weed out any bugs. However, if you can break down your problem (divide and conquer which is an integral part of computer science), I suspect ChatGPT could be a very useful tool to speed up development, provided you can break down problems into sufficiently small parts (ie. divide and conquer).

What about forecasting economic variables like inflation? That's the main focus at Turnleaf Analytics, which Alexander Denev and I cofounded...

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