Chasing Big Ideas

"Too many people focus on 'what is' rather than 'what could be'" - Futurist Jim Carroll

I'm in Georgia, where later today, I'll speak on behalf of a corporate group on the topic of the future of healthcare. (Before that, I'll be hard at work studying the nature of turf science, particularly concerning the actions of a small spherical object as it encounters the turf after being struck by a long object, particularly when the turf in question is quite dormant. There is much to learn.)

I digress.

The photo for today's image comes from my keynote for the American Association of Orthopedic Executives, and I'm speaking to them about the emerging reality of 3d printed body parts - knees on order via a Web site. A crazy idea? Not really - it's a fast-emerging reality. They needed not to just think about what is today, but would be tomorrow!

Anyways, I work my way into this theme in today's keynote. I'll start by noting that the challenges in the healthcare system - particularly in the US - are vast. I tackle this head-on in the front of my keynote, noting that in a nutshell, we are seeing:

• a rapid increase in lifestyle diseases resulting in massive future demands on the system
• demographic challenge - more boomers, fewer workers to support massive uptick in spending
• resultant massive supply/demand imbalance
• combined with the ‘continual politics of uncertainty’
• an expectation gap that is likely to increase the scope of the challenge

After that, I'll walk through several slides having to do with the science of healthcare and medicine, the acceleration of new forms of treatment, and other issues. It's an interesting time to be covering this type of material from the stage, given that I'm doing so in a country where the very science of healthcare is under attack.

Even so, one of my jobs is to help the group - all involved in the health benefits community - understand the big sweeping trends and ideas that provide so much potential for society. Such as the statement, "What we did for heart health in the 20th century, we can do for brain health in the 21st century" from Dr. Deepak Chopra, an integrative medicine advocate

I've got several slides with these big, bold ideas or observations in my deck:

• "At the rate research like Atala's? is progressing, scientists predict that replacement organs will be a reality within years, not decades" - Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine
• "Video games designed as digital medicine will revolutionize how we treat cognitive disorders. In the next decade, we'll prescribe technology alongside—or instead of—drugs for conditions like ADHD and Alzheimer's." - Dr. Adam Gazzaley, UCSF neuroscientist
• "I believe that within the next decade, we'll see drug delivery systems that can precisely target diseased cells, dramatically reducing side effects and improving the efficacy of treatments" - Dr. Robert Langer, MIT Professor and biomedical engineering pioneer
• "I think it's reasonable to anticipate that in the next few years, we will be able to engineer immunity to most infectious diseases and reverse many aspects of aging." - Dr. George Church, Harvard geneticist
• "CRISPR genome editing technology will transform medicine in the next decade, allowing us to not just treat but actually cure genetic diseases at their source." - Dr. Jennifer Doudna, Nobel Prize winner for CRISPR
• "We will transition from reactive medicine to proactive medicine. Within 10 years, each patient will be surrounded by a virtual cloud of billions of data points that will enable us to optimize wellness and minimize disease." - Dr. Leroy Hood, co-founder of the Institute for Systems Biology

Of course, you have to be careful with this kind of stuff, since sometimes grand visions are nothing more than that. (Theranos, anyone?). And sometimes, they can just seem a little bit too far-fetched to seem likely in our lifetime. Take this one:

• "By the 2030’s, we will connect our neocortex to the cloud. This will expand our memory, and cognitive capabilities, and allow us to directly interface with artificial intelligence."- Ray Kurzweil, futurist and Google's Director of Engineering

I've done a few keynotes with Ray over the years, and he's a fascinating fellow, but sometimes, as a fellow futurist, I find he pushes things just a little bit too far.

In any event, there are big opportunities and big ideas that surround us, and that is the basis for today's quote. Too many people, when confronted by big-scope challenges (such as those that exist in healthcare), tend to focus only on the solutions available today, often forgetting about what's to come tomorrow. What we tend to do is to focus on what 'is' right now, and don't ask enough questions about what 'could be.'

The flip side to this type of thinking is that you also need to consider the downside of what 'could be,' and?of course, things could be worse than they are right now. I'll also be referring to my eerily accurate post from 2017 about the 'emerging healthcare reality crisis.' In it, I lay out the case exactly where we find ourselves today - a vast number of people, concentrated in particular regions, who are in complete denial about the reality of health. (Measles, anyone?)

That leads me to share this research report which just floated across my desk.

Researchers studied a variety of social media posts that offered up a variety of healthcare solutions, involving full-body MRI scans, genetic testing for cancer screening, blood tests for testosterone levels, a female egg count (fertility) test, and gut microbiome tests.

What they found was pretty bad:

• 87% of posts analyzed highlighted the benefit of tests, while only 15% mentioned potential harms
• Only 6% of posts discussed the risk of over-diagnosis
• Only 6% of posts referred to scientific evidence!

In other words, 'what could be' could be pretty bad.

This too is part of understanding that while we focus on what 'is', we also need to consider what could 'be.'

Whatever the case may be, always try and move from 'what is' to 'what could be!'

Futurist Jim Carroll has been speaking about the future of healthcare for 25+ years, and has seen a lot of the ‘big crazy ideas’ he’s predicted from the stage become real over time.

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