Charts of the Week: 31 May 2024
This week's chart pack covers the following topics:
US inflation surprises signal persistent risks
Macrobond users can click here to access the chart and gain deeper insights into the data.
What the chart shows
This chart illustrates the relationship between US underlying inflation and inflation surprises, with inflation surprises pushed ahead by 12 months. It tracks various measures of underlying inflation alongside the US Citi Inflation Surprise Index. The chart suggests that the inflation surprise index tends to lead actual underlying inflation by about twelve months, showing a predictive relationship across different inflation measures.
Behind the data
Although US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in April moderated and was relatively close to expectations, both headline and core CPI measures have consistently exceeded consensus estimates for several preceding months. This has driven increases in the economy’s inflation surprise index.?
Given the higher and more positive trend of overall US inflation surprises, inflationary risks may persist. This persistent inflation risk complicates the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process regarding its monetary policy stance. While the Fed has been considering a shift from a hawkish to a dovish approach, continued inflation surprises may keep such a shift uncertain.
Heavy rains boost Rhine River water levels
Macrobond users can click here to access the chart and gain deeper insights into the data.
What the chart shows
This chart illustrates the water levels of the Rhine River, highlighting the historical range, the 10-90 percentile range, and the mean levels. The chart compares the water levels for the years 2023 and 2024, showing a significant increase in May 2024.
Behind the data
Last summer, low water levels in the Rhine caused major disruptions to shipping, manufacturing, and energy operations in Germany due to insufficient rainfall. Rainy weather last month, however, has alleviated these concerns.
As we can see in the chart, water levels in May 2024 are significantly above the historical mean and within the high range of historical data. Higher water levels are crucial for maintaining smooth operations in shipping and manufacturing industries that rely on the Rhine for transportation. Adequate water levels also support energy production and other water-dependent operations, providing a more stable environment for economic activities in the region.
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China's real estate market slump shows impact of shift from speculative investments
Macrobond users can click here to access the chart and gain deeper insights into the data.
What the chart shows
This chart shows the value of real estate transactions in China relative to GDP, broken down by different types of buildings. Since the pandemic, we can see a significant decline from about 20% to 10% -- driven by residential transactions.?
Behind the data
Chinese authorities have been shifting the real estate sector towards residential purposes and sustainability rather than speculative investments. But the market remains subdued, with declines in investments, sales, and prices.?
This indicates that efforts to curb speculation are working, reducing real estate's contribution to GDP. The market is cooling due to stricter regulations and reduced speculative activity. The economy is diversifying away from real estate dependency, aiming for long-term stability. Policymakers face challenges in balancing market cooling with stimulating sustainable growth. The sector may need supportive measures to sustain demand without reigniting speculation.
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