Charts of the Week | 1st July - 5th July 2024

Chart 1:

US Monthly demand was revised upwards yet again for Diesel and Gasoline (compared to weekly preliminary numbers). US Gasoline demand is running at nearly -2% y/y, disappointing but much better than the weekly numbers of -5% y/y for certain weeks (Source: EIA)

Chart 2:

A very strong start for oil in 2H 2024 as deferred crude such as Brent Cal25 is only 60c away from 52 wk highs. Historically deferred crude has anchored around $80 as strong backwardation has allowed spot prices to move higher but anchoring the deferred curve.

Chart 3:

Turkish Customs data showed a growing Diesel appetite in Turkey. Turkish Diesel imports grew to a record high of 354KBD. Turkey continues to benefit from rerouted Russian diesel as Russian imports into Turkey also grew to a record high. Russia provided 312KBD or 88% of total Diesel volumes. Turkey continues to provide a home for Russian diesel that could otherwise have been stranded. (Source: Turkish Customs)

Chart 4:

Refinery runs from the 4 largest Asian economies continues to show Y/Y declines in refinery runs. After a huge surge in refinery runs in 2023 (mainly due to China), incremental runs is tougher to find this year globally. This will keep the product's market supported but a headache for OPEC as it tries to market its incremental crude exports. (Source: PAJ, KNOC, NBS China, PPAC)

Chart 5:

US Crude exports was flat m/m but it continues to remain above 4MMBD this whole year. Volumes to Asia and Europe dominate. Even though Netherlands is the largest recipient of US crude, volumes to NW Europe are declining while volumes to Asia are picking up even though Chinese volumes are significantly lower than the peak. (Source: US Customs)