Charts of the Week | 16th September - 20th September 2024

Chart 1:

Chinese refinery runs were unchanged m/m as it continues to hover near YTD lows. August refinery runs were at 13.96MMBD which is down by -1.33MMBD y/y. Despite the weak flat price environment, refinery margins remain challenged which will continue to put pressure on refinery runs. (Source: NBS China)

Chart 2:

South Korean crude imports jumped to a 2 year high as we start to see some impact of the crude price drop. South Korea breaks down its crude imports by API and data shows it took a record amount of crude of API 35-46 and API 46+ as its crude slate continues to get lighter as it takes in more volumes from the US. (Source: South Korea Customs)

Chart 3:

Refinery margin compression is having an impact on Indian refinery runs which also saw the lowest refinery runs YTD. Combined Indian and Chinese refinery runs in August are down by -1.4MMBD y/y of which China is driving the bulk of it. (Source: PPAC and NBS China)

Chart 4:

Reduced Chinese refinery runs continue to keep product exports suppressed. China’s Diesel exports are down by 30% y/y while Gasoline exports are down by 44% y/y. Combined Diesel and Gasoline exports are at 1650KT in Aug-24 compared to 3000-4000KT seen in 2022. (Source: China Customs)

Chart 5:

Chinese refineries continue to produce record amounts of Naphtha and Jet with yields surging at the expense of Diesel and Gasoline. China’s refinery runs have come off sharply recently but the newer petchem linked refinery hubs have seen runs held up relative to the older refinery hubs. (Source: NBS China)