Charts of the Week | 15th July - 19th July 2024

Chart 1:

Chinese refinery runs dropped m/m to reach a 6-month low of 14.24MMBD. Lacklustre domestic demand along with weakening refinery margins continues to suppress Chinese refinery runs. Chinese refinery runs continue to be flat y/y when compared to 1H YTD basis. (Source: NBS China)

Chart 2:

Summer season continues to be in full swing as global aviation continues to hit new record highs. Commercial flights hit above 140,000 flights /day which is +8% y/y and +13% from the 2019 peak. Despite the uptick in flights, Jet diffs have been kept in check due to fuel-efficient newer aircrafts and higher Jet supply from key refining regions. (Source: FlightRadar)

Chart 3:

China’s Gasoline output Yield surged to the highest levels since 2018. With the composition of refinery runs changing (Shandong down, newer refinery hubs up) + a change in crude slate, light-end refinery output continues to get boosted. (Source: NBS China)

Chart 4:

Combined India and Chinese refinery runs are down by nearly 500KBD y/y mainly due to disappointing Chinese refinery runs. With OPEC already losing market share in these 2 countries due to rerouted Russian crude, lower runs continue to pose another headache for OPEC that wants to increase production in Q4. (Source: PPAC and NBS China)

Chart 5:

China’s exports of its 3 main products were little changed m/m. Despite being higher by 46% y/y its still close to half the peak levels seen in Q4 2022. Within the 3 products, Jet exports continue to hit new highs, but Gasoline and Diesel exports remain suppressed. (Source: China Customs)