Charts of the Week | 11th September - 15th September 2023

Chart 1:

$90 crude has attracted net spec length to its highest levels since June 2022. The latest week saw a surge in 87K contracts mainly driven by WTI and Brent. Despite the highest spec length level seen since June 2022, they remain 35% lower than the 2020/21 peak and 60% below the 2018 peak. (Source: CFTC and ICE)

Chart 2:

M1 Gasoil prices spiked up above $1000/MT on the run-up to expiry as backwardation across the whole curve remains steep. Cal24 Gasoil is now at $830/MT which is the highest since August 2022. Product markets continue to outperform, while crude slowly catches up.

Chart 3:

Open interest continues to surge for WTI as higher flat price continue to bring in new market participants. Despite the surge seen in September, aggregate open interest remains 30% below the 2021 peak (ICE Brent is ~17% below the 2021 peak). (Source: CME and ICE)

Chart 4:

China’s refinery runs hit a record high in August surging above 15MMBD for the first time (15.3MMBD, +2.6MMBD y/y). With cheap discounted crude from Russia/Iran and strong refinery margins, China’s refineries continue to run at record highs. (Source: NBS China)