Chart of the Month – Did you write that or your AI?

The field of AI or artificial intelligence has existed and been used since World War 2. Starting with simple programming tasks that required coding, AI developed into predictive and adaptive situations that don’t require code. Through algorithms, AI is able to process huge volumes of data with pre-existing code titles. This is nearly 99% of the current AI use, and is generally described as Supervisory Learning.

The current excitement about AI is in relation to generative AI. The key difference with generative AI is that it can process unstructured data at massive volume and perform multiple tasks. We are now seeing this manifest across a spectrum of data sets, from images, code, video and audio, which in turn the AI system can perform multiple functions such as classify, edit, codify, provide responses, and draft detailed text. The technical step change is the use of foundation models which have been developed with vast artificial neural networks (the human brain having billions of neurons).

This months Chart of the Month considers the possible impact of generative AI on technical automation across the spectrum of education skill sets in the US. The relevance goes to employment and role impact and obsolescence. Further, a mid point assumption for general adoption has been utilised (that is, 50% of time spent on current work activities is automated and reached by 2045). What this indicates is:

• Low or unqualified education level employment already faced a high level of technical automation.? Generative AI does have an impact, but the step-change is somewhat more moderate. This cohort represents 55% of US employment.
• Mid or high qualified education level employment it is indicated, face the biggest potential acceleration in technical automation in their roles.?This cohort represents 45% of US employment.??

In summary, the largest potential adjustment is for those more qualified in occupations requiring skills of supervision, analysis, decision making and collaboration and documentation. Whilst a smaller proportion of the labour force, it is a useful guidepoint for vocation selection and skills development for the higher qualified currently under 40 years of age. This will result in changed roles, hopefully more interesting and allowing greater time being put into more productive activities, which in turn supports higher economic output from $2.2 trillion to over $4 trillion pa. ??