The Charles Dickens, Floating Markets & Africa Edition
John MacAskill
Accelerating renewables one ? at a time | Offshore wind & supply chain expert | Establishing & growing businesses across the offshore wind value chain | BD & marketing expert | Industry Speaker
Welcome dear subscribers!
Thanks for clicking ???? and deciding to read this edition, always appreciated. It has been a while, longer than I had hoped! So if you are a regular you will know I try for a mix of my?offshore wind opinion??, some of?our news?? and as usual some stuff on?coffee? and?metal????...!
Where do we start? Well this edition brings you ? some thoughts on whether we are in the 'best of times' ? a summary of a new OWC authored study on #floatingwind markets, ? some insights on Africa by my colleague David Wotherspoon, ?, we look at recent?news across renewables, ? your next adventure?at?OWC!,...and of course some ? coffee and ???? metal!
So please?read on?and?share?this with colleagues...get them to subscribe!
Is offshore wind in 'the best of times'?
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness.” - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities.
If you scan recent news headlines you would certainly be forgiven for thinking we are:
New or improved commitments and targets, investments, record breaking cost reductions. You probably know where I am taking this if you know me, or can see through the tortured Dickens' quote used as a device here. Obviously we are in massively exciting times in offshore wind.
Worst of times
We will remember these days as ones where anything was possible; "40 GW by 2030? Piffle, make that 50GW Kwasi"! But of course that is before we have to deliver.
Now it is certainly not the worst of times. Those of us who remember when R-UK was the BWEA will remember headlines like these almost every week! I remember a Christmas Connect that seemed more like a wake (I am trying to remember the year, leave a comment below ???? if you can remember!).
No, regardless of the challenges it is not the worst of times.
Age of wisdom
CfD's AR4 has demonstrated we know how to get this done at the moment. In terms of fixed offshore wind, we know how to develop and construct projects at costs that blow other technologies out of the water (pun intended). More markets now have an understanding of attractive policy pillars needed to get developers, get projects consented, and a clear route to market. The range of developers active in our markets is vast. From country, regional, and global players; utilities, IPPs, and oil & gas players are all participating and bringing strengths and expertise.
Age of foolishness
Will the age of wisdom hit some road bumps? A month ago we saw the UK government allocate 7GW at ￡37.35/MWh. This was over ￡2/MWh lower than 2019 and certainly with WTG sizes up from those used in 2019 CfD projects; so on a like for like basis this should not be a surprise. This mechanism is hugely successful, offering visibility on revenue while protecting both sides from fluctuations in power prices and it should be a model for other markets. ?But in a few years when we look back at these projects, at this time, it may feel differently.
I worry we are only starting to feel and understand some significant head winds; supply chain constraints, increases in raw material prices (incl a 40% jump in European steel prices in a matter of weeks), inflation and interest rates, and energy price increases. And talent/resource shortages, while baby-boomers – which many make up the majority of current experienced technical personnel - will start to retire in the coming years.
Nothing we cannot deal with, with persistence and ingenuity as an industry, but offshore wind cannot be as cheap as this again, we have hit 'peak cheapness(!)'.
So back to the Dicken's quote. Calling this the age of foolishness would be wrong headed, to continue and paraphrase his quote from A Tale of Two Cities, "It was the best of times, [...], it was the age of wisdom, [...] it was the epoch of belief, [...] it was the spring of hope, [...] we had everything before us."
It is exciting being in this industry, and we do have challenges in front of us...but we got this.
OWC recently supported the ORE Catapult’s “Floating Offshore Wind Centre of Excellence”, in developing a market study that projects future global #floatingwind opportunities, identifying 54 territories as potential floating wind markets.
“Floating offshore wind will be critical to offshore wind’s role in the future energy mix, but it also brings its own challenges and opportunities, which means that all offshore wind markets are not ready or suitable for future development. This study provides a critical blueprint of that global expansion, identifying the markets to watch in terms of short-term or long-term readiness as a major floating wind player.” - Craig Brown, Principal Consultant at OWC
The analysis screened over 240 territories for their potential readiness for floating wind development. Each territory was assessed against minimum technical thresholds such as coastal access, offshore wind resources and bathymetry, and by additional socio-economic filters to support investments in commercial scale floating offshore wind.
Against this criterion, the report narrowed the list of potential floating wind markets to 54 territories, which pass all thresholds. Then all 54 territories were further evaluated in terms of their short-term or long-term readiness for commercial floating offshore wind development based on 11 custom developed criteria spanning three categories: (i) technical resource and policy drivers, (ii) commercial investment landscape, (iii) floating offshore wind market facilitators.
22 countries spanning Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific fall into the category for short-term development of floating offshore wind within the period of 2022-2035, whilst 32 fall into the long-term category from 2035 to 2050, including countries in Africa.
“Installed floating wind capacity currently sits at 0.2GW. To support 2050 net-zero objectives, this capacity will need to grow exponentially. This study provides an insight into the where, when and how floating offshore wind can develop to become a global industry, and hence plays a critical role in delivering a global net-zero. The study pinpoints the leading markets to deliver on a possible 10GW by 2030, and identifies how these markets can pave the way for widespread deployment across the globe in the later 2030s and 2040s.” - Ralph Torr, Head of Floating Wind, ORE Catapult
The study has been developed by OWC’s offshore wind market studies services team. OWC along with parent group company, ABL Group, has contributed to over 30 floating wind projects worldwide with a total of more than 18 GW of potential capacity.
领英推荐
OWC is a specialist consultancy that helps develop and deliver offshore wind projects and investments for developers and investors in all global markets. The company offers project development services, owner’s engineering and technical due diligence to the offshore renewables sector.
If you want to download and read the report, it can be found here >> read more
Contact?Craig Brown?to discuss this study or any other policy, strategy or market study needs.
OWC's head of new geographies, David Wotherspoon spoke recently at ENLIT Africa 2022 in Cape Town, South Africa. David spoke with ESI AFRICA (Issue 1, 2022) on the opportunity offshore wind affords the continent.
As a company, we’re involved in energy projects around the globe. We are working on offshore wind developments in Europe, Asia-Pacific, North America and seeing early-stage development coming forward in Central and South America, but nothing on the horizon for Africa.?So I wanted to stimulate some interest and debate on the topic and ask “why not Africa?”?I’m sure a number of assumptions could be made, and it’s easy to shy away from the “difficult” questions when so many opportunities exist around the globe, but to use a popular expression “If you don’t ask, you don’t get”. - David Wotherspoon, OWC
David continues "Parts of Africa, and particularly South Africa, have an excellent offshore wind resource.?There is a need for the energy.?There is a need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.?There is potential for other uses for and products from the energy which could be generated and there is the potential for a new industry to be established.?So again “why not?”
The other part is timing.?This will take time to implement properly with legislation, planning, permitting and licencing.?Developing an offshore windfarm typically takes longer than actually constructing one.?So the time to start the conversation is now if offshore windfarms are to play a part in the energy mix in Africa from 2030 onwards."
If you want to read David's full article check out page 94 in ESI Africa's Issue 1 2022 magazine.
Some recent news from OWC and the rest of the ABL Group; from offshore wind LTA, to battery storage via green hydrogen! Check out the stories and reach out if you want to know how we can help you:
We have a full Autumn list of events and will include more in the next news letter. But if you are based in Oslo we have an event on the 31st August in Oslo where our Katherine Phillips will present on the Norwegian #floatingwind market; risks and trends. It will also be a chance to network. More on this in the coming weeks and reach out to me or Katherine for an invitation.
Be part of the transition! Work in the most?exciting emerging markets?and?challenging projects.?Join #TeamOWC!?Check out our jobs page on LinkedIn and?choose your next adventure:?OWC adventures >>
This edition comes to you powered by?KAWA Coffee Ltd. Thanks again to KAWA founder?Regan Black?for his continued support of this Newsletter...it runs on coffee...and of course...
I am currently working my way through a bag of Guatemalan roast from KAWA. This coffee is what I consider to be an all day coffee, it's strong enough for that early morning kick, but I find it really enjoyable later in the day and recently enjoyed with a light lunch in the garden.
Well apart from some brilliant albums this year, it is the summer so festival time. Only two main festivals this summer for me; Download in June and next week Bloodstock Open Air.
I had not been to Download since 2017, so it was great to revisit the site of my first festival going all the way back in 1984! Castle Donington holds quite a legendary status with metalheads, but it's not for the quality of the site which quickly becomes a mud bath with some rain due to god awful drainage (2016 was not called Downpour for nothing!). But this year the weather was stunning and though it was light on my kind of metal, it proved to be an excellent 3 days. As normal for this event I went with my granddaughter and this time also some of her mates. But I managed to meet up with a few of my older gig-friends from Bloodstock, usually at the bar near the Dogtooth tent.
Iron Maiden, Megadeth, Orbit Culture, Heriot, Mastodon and Sheffield's finest Malevolence, were the highlights for me.
And ignore the hat, it was not mine I promise.
If you want to hear what I will be watching at Bloodstock next week, check out this playlist.
Well that's it for this edition.
Thanks for spending some time reading it. Please subscribe and share with colleagues. The next edition will be out with less of a gap than last time, so expect first week Sept.
So stay safe, enjoy life, and catch you next time and at events in the real world. ????
Cheers
John MacAskill, Managing Director Renewables
Climate and Energy Diplomacy/ Offshore Wind Professional with over 20 years experience. Certified Yoga RYT, Meditation, Breathwork and Professional Life Coach.
2 年Another insightful read John. And informative study by OWC folk! So thanks for that! I have some recently gifted Vietnamese and Columbian Coffee! I suggest we have the next cup together?!
Offshore, Nearshore and Subsea Project Management.
2 年This Newsletter goes to Eleven!
Head of Offshore Wind Investment at DESNZ
2 年As ever John. A informative and interesting read.
Marine Consultant
2 年Love it! ??????
Director at Dark Matter Procurement Ltd
2 年Great write up, John.