Character is the Overlooked Factor in Draft Evaluation

With less than a month to go before the 2020 NFL Draft, scouting of potential draftees is proceeding in an altered way because of the coronavirus. Pro scouting days, visits to team headquarters and the combine physical re-checks have been eliminated. But the NFL Combine and All-Star games that were held gave teams the opportunity to meet up close and personal with players. These opportunities gave franchises the chance to evaluate the most important factors in assessing a player’s intangible qualities that, more often than not, determine their success in the NFL - work ethic and character.

Extraordinary amounts of time and money go into the contemporary “second season" of draft prospect assessment. The results of drafting over the past 10 years are mixed at best. Thirty-three to forty percent of the players drafted in the first round either under-perform or do not survive five years in the league. Players in lower rounds and free agents end up becoming starters. Why is this?

NFL teams have fallen in love with analytics. At the combine there are five physical tests

1.      40-yard dash

2.      Vertical leap

3.      Broad jump

4.      225 lbs bench press

5.      Lateral three-cone drill

A great score on one of these tests will skyrocket a players' draft status. The 40-yard dash is especially impactful for wide receivers, defensive backs and running backs. Year after year, players are vaulted into the first round via a scorching 40 time. It's almost as if the actual players productivity at the collegiate level is downgraded. Whether the rocket fast wide receiver can catch a pass or the defensive back can defend a receiver gets lost in the track competition.

In some ways, the most determinant factors for NFL success are how a player keeps his body in shape through nutrition and training, how much film study and preparation he does, and how he performs under adversity and pressure. None of these factors are measured through analytics. Teams now have investigative teams that do elaborate background checks into a player’s history - all the way back to grade school, looking for aberrational behavior. These teams scour the internet for offensive or controversial postings. Teams talk to coaches, assistant coaches and trainers. The consequence of having a player unavailable to a team because of behavioral difficulties is cataclysmic. The team can lose the player’s services and the cap room to replace him.

The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. We don't throw young men on the trash heap of history for one aberrational incident that served as a learning experience. But terrific scrutiny on past behavior sheds light on the critical questions of character and work ethic. Performance in games is the best indicator of performance under stress. And these factors should be at the top of the list in making effective draft picks.