Character, Climax, Coup, and Denouement?

While this is pure speculation and based on local Moscow hearsay that I will not attribute, it makes some kind of sense, especially as Russia is the source of Stanislavsky's method for actors. In a nutshell, the method calls for the progression of relaxation, the concentration of attention, imagination, communication, and emotional memory.

These factors, with 20:20 hindsight, seem to have been in play beginning with the very odd behavior and selfies from Prigozhin all the way back in January with his first videos from the front lines complaining and accusing the Russian MOD of laxness, nepotism, inaction, careerism, and even cowardice in very colorful, clear unambiguous terms.

As one of the lead characters, Prigozhin, since participating in the founding of the Wagner Group in 2014, runs private military operations globally, from Syria to the CAR, and of course Donbas. To do this without the tacit consent of the powers that be is unthinkable. Supplies of weapons and ammunition were also never an issue until the second act of the scene which has just played out. Consider - scatterbrained, or emotionally unhinged are not traits permitted to people with government support in such sensitive roles, and neither are mutineers or traitors.

Here in Russia, many in official and unofficial roles were deeply surprised that he was not removed or otherwise disciplined months ago for his radical video statements as serious operations are ongoing and national security interests were in play, hence at risk.?

Naming names like Shoigu and Gerasimov as culpable for "not supplying ammunition" or "committing genocide" sounded a bit odd as at the front the Wagnerites were pounding Ukrainian military and strategic targets ceaselessly without any appreciable ammunition shortages and increasingly Ukraine was suffering excessive overall military losses in both personnel and equipment.?

In addition, add the fact that Putin, Shoigu, Gersimov, Prigozhin, and others in the executive branch have had long-term personal relations historically, and their beliefs in Russian sovereignty and economic independence have been largely aligned for years. There is also the fact that Wagner plays an ongoing, one-step removed, deniable role as an independent contractor in the middle east and Africa. Top it off with the fact that Prigozhin and Putin met just 2 weeks ago for "productive" discussions that were deemed mutually positive.

Fast forward to June 23, 2023, with a legacy of scandalous, accusatory videos under his belt (and still fully operational and well supplied), Prigozhin starts a "mutiny", even a possible "coup" against the MOD (not the Russian Federation). The Wagner offices in St. Petersburg are "searched". Something is up, even Western media have reformed their opinion on Wagner Group, changing from labeling them as "terrorists" to today's "freedom fighters" as their troops "occupied" Rostov in the south, and columns of "freedom fighter" troops headed up the highway north to Moscow. All without a real fight, seemingly acceded to by the local military in place. Not a realistic outcome, some minimal use of explosives, sadly a few fatalities, something undoubtedly was fishily afoot, but what? Some Western countries even placed a hold on implementing further anti-Wagner sanctions to bolster these now-renamed "freedom fighters".

In just this one weekend a massive shift in troop positioning and deployment happened when the Wagner armored columns that were headed towards Moscow suddenly made left turns and started regrouping to the west, with Chechen troops in the south brought in to "settle with" Wagner, and Russian army reserve units quickly moved west, again to "settle" with Prigozhins Wagner Group, not to mention Prigozhin himself, now free of any charges and "thanks" to President Lukashenko, has re-based in Belorus on Ukraines north along with possibly several operational contingents of Wagner. So it seems there was no "mutiny" or "coup" as all is now forgiven, even those accused by Prigozhin in the MOD, of course, all thanks to the light touch, and the usual delicately masterful trademark diplomatic skills of Lukashenko.

The repositioning of all these main forces, the Russian Army with its large reserves, the Chechen Akhmat Force, and the Wagner Group is now rather well redeployed to take the special military operation to a new, far stronger phase from the north, center, and south of Donbas, leaving the Ukrainians to reassess their positions, troop deployments, supply chains, and offense plans.

Whether the rumors and hearsay have any traction or not, this has led some here in Russia to conclude that the special military operation has now entered an end-game phase, and if all goes to plan might be concluded in the coming weeks, one-way or another. It has even been rumored that President Vladimir Putin might invite the commanders of the Wagner PMC detachments to the Kremlin even before the end of this month. Among the possible guests might even be the very colorful Evgeny Prigozhin. Try to figure that one out if it happens, it would tend to support the 'applied' theater concept. Stanislavsky would be proud that his method has been well-learned and usefully used. Now the serious work begins.

It is also worth mentioning that the anti-terrorist protocols initiated in the key cities of western Russia due to this affair seem to have netted several small schools of active pro-Ukrainian, anti-Russian groups, funded by diverse sources, and has flushed out some well-embedded anti-Russia assets. The byproduct result of the Wagner "coup" is that a number of sub-rosa elements have raised their heads and were noticed by security services not just in Russia, but Belarus as well. It will be interesting to see what results from these observations. The whole special military operation has decidedly switched gears, and where it goes from here is anyone's guess.

Moscow June 24 2023