Chaos In Europe

Chaos In Europe

Based on a satirical map from 1870, this reprinting illustrates the tensions brewing before the start of World War 1.


Breaking

US widens Russia sanctions in banking crackdown[BBC]

US attack sub, Canada navy patrol ship arrive in Cuba on heels of Russian warships [Reuters]

The petrodollar is dead and that's a big deal [FX Street] G7 leaders strike deal on $50bn funding for Ukraine using Russian assets [Yahoo News]

EU hits Chinese EVs with tariffs, drawing rebuke from Beijing [Reuters]


In Focus

Europe In Disarray

The European Election delivered the clarity that was greatly wanting.?

Following Sunak calling a UK general election in July, voters in Europe decided they, too, had had enough. France and Germany's ruling parties were thrashed with Macron forced to call a snap election.?

8 years after the landmark Brexit vote, where the UK citizens demonstrated that voting No actually works, the disintegration of Europe has begun. France's probable next leader is vocally keen on Frexit. If this transpires it's the beginning of the end for the European Union.?

With their economies stagnant and facing an escalating war with Russia, some sort of leadership is required and it's in woefully short abundance. Only Giorgia Meloni from Italy has any conviction.

Macron gambles on snap election after crushing loss to French far right in EU vote [CNN]

Belgian PM resigns after crushing defeat by right in general election [The Guardian]

Christine Lagarde says ECB can keep rates on hold as long as needed [FT]

Already markets are beginning to price in the shock to come.

 CAC Daily
?CAC Daily

CAC stands for Cotation Assistée en Continu, which stands for "continuous assisted trading" or "listing," and was an electronic trading system that the Paris Stock Exchange used in the 1980s and 1990s.

As we speak the G7 meeting in Italy is coming to a close, and there'll be some big announcements I would anticipate.

G7 Family Photo June 2024
G7 Family Photo June 2024

The G7 Summit is an international forum held annually for the leaders of the G7 member States of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US. Represented jointly by the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission, the EU participates in all discussions as a guest.?

Pictured above with Charles Michel, President of the European Council, and Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission.

G7 Leaders
G7 Leaders

These are the most powerful leaders in the "free world". Whatever your political persuasion, you can be sure that change is coming.


Japan

USD / YEN Daily
USD / YEN Daily

Statement on Monetary Policy[BoJ]

I love the BoJ policy statements. Straight to the point.

Unchanged short-term rates but "it would reduce its purchase amount of JGBs thereafter to ensure that long-term interest rates would be formed more freely in financial markets"

Holding the bond market group meeting [BoJ]

"5. Topic The Bank will ask participants their opinions on the future conduct of the Bank's JGB purchases."

Having achieved the holy grail of central bank policy - "the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 2.0-2.5 percent recently" ironically Japan finds itself hostage to financial markets in a situation of their own creation.

Look at GDP !

Japan GDP Q1 2024
Japan GDP Q1 2024

In The Background

FED presser - fast forward to 58.30 mins.

  • Rates on hold
  • Reducing QT?
  • GDP slowing
  • Inflation slowing but still too high
  • Dot plot suggests only one cut this year
  • "There is an argument that payrolls may be a bit overstated"

CPI and PPI came in slightly lower than expected, helping stock markets to rally even further, although 6 big companies are distorting the indices.

US CPI May 2024
US CPI May 2024
US PPI May 2024
US PPI May 2024

CRE / Regional Banks

The banking sector share prices were hit this week as the CRE crisis starts to impact bigger banks.

Pimco Warns of More Regional Bank Failures on Property Pain[Bloomberg]

Market participants are warning that banks are dumping toxic debt from CRE loans

Moody's puts six U.S. regional banks on downgrade review over commercial real estate exposure [CNBC]


Bitcoin | US Election

Trump Wants Bitcoin "Made In The USA" After Hosting Mining Industry Heads [Zerohedge]

Biden Campaign Allegedly Exploring Crypto Donations Through Coinbase Commerce [Yahoo Finance]?


Canada

Canada’s immigration model is coming under strain [FT]


China

Country Garden’s Home Sales Slump Persists as Aid Fails to Help [Bloomberg]

China CPI, PPI May 2024
China CPI, PPI May 2024

Australia

Australia Employment May 2024
Australia Employment May 2024

What's Next ?

  • G7 statements
  • RBA and BoE interest rate decisions
  • Russia response to more sanctions
  • NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine ?


This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]

This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]
This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]


Gianpaolo Pavone

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5 个月

SPETTACOLO ..INDEGNO in mondovisione ! Mentre " i 7 nani " ballano la pizzica, e RIMBAMBIDEN sembra frizzato su Marte, a Gaza estraggono dalle macerie bambini con il cranio TRANCIATO IN 2 ..sotto l' IGNOBILE e RIPUGNANTE SILENZIO di queste persone !!! è questa ..l'umanità che state sostenendo ? ????????

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