CoronaVirus: Chaos, Confusion & Cozenage

Please note that this article was published on Saturday 14 March 2020 and that events in the immediate days thereafter are broadly described in the post-script hereto. No wonder that on 16 March the UK and USA changed the thrust of their strategies for dealing with the CoronaVirus epidemic from mitigation to suppression.

At the start of the Second World War in 1939 when computers, smart phones, motorways, jumbo jets etc didn't exist, everyone in Great Britain had a gas mask yet Boris Johnson's UK government has decided not to even test those who might have got or could die from CoronaVirus. It turned out the gas masks were not necessary. However, we already know that failure to test the population properly for CoronaVirus will have grave consequences and not just now. How can you fight a silent invisible enemy? The UK must aim to continue to test most of its citizens who have CoronaVirus like symptoms and the sooner it sets that as one of its ongoing primary goals the better. It could take a leaf out of South Korea's real approach or the USA's purportedly planned visionary approach to testing.

The USA's plans for testing for CoronaVirus as outlined by President Trump on 13 March 2020 when announcing the national emergency, were palpably false, inaccurate and/or misleading in most respects because at the epicentre of the USA's plans was a website Trump said was being created by Google which Google later denied any knowledge of as explained in the following links.

1. https://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2020/03/trump-blindsides-google-with-announcement-that-its-building-a-nationwide-u-s-screening-site-its-not/

2. https://twitter.com/Google_Comms/status/1238574670686928906

3. https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-donald-trump-google-website/

Vice President Pence is already sycophantically (or cunningly in case it fails) calling the US plan "our president's vision". That is all it is, a pathological liar's vision ... and pathological liars don't make for being good prophets. What chance have the US of testing just 10% of its 327 million citizens before April 2020? Zero or next to nothing now? No matter what, the odds are stacked against it. Maybe Trump decided to con his nation after a chat with President Xi of China.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has yet to explain the recent spate of miraculous statistics of CoronaVirus cases and deaths in China. Maybe the data is real despite being too good to be true, but can the data genuinely be attributed to containment? Given tens of millions were locked down, you would have expected the numbers to continue increasing for several more weeks. The obvious cynical explanation in the absence of trustworthy data would be a well-managed rapid decline in the numbers of tests undertaken and/or simple manipulations of test results.

Unlike Trump in the USA, at least Boris Johnson in the UK has realised testing is probably impractical and as it has no US cavalry (such as in Trump's vision of a mythological Google website and 1,700 Trojan warriors) it has decided not to bother with testing its population. After all, they didn't need gas masks in 1939. The UK plan is to sweep testing under the carpet by depriving its citizens of their individual rights to know if they have contracted CoronaVirus. How? Using such terms as "herd immunity", as Boris Johnson would quip, he can easily discombobulate the masses. That saves all the hassle and cost of testing and by the way, all this hullabaloo can be paid for from the pensions of those who die from CoronaVirus. UK state pensions cost circa ￡120 billion per annum so a recurring reduction in that of about 8% (a rough estimate of the death rate expected for the UK's 12 million pensioners from CoronaVirus) would do nicely.

Albeit conceptually appealing, the UK government's new "herd immunity" plan is a load of codswallop in reality. Hundreds of respected scientists have said so: please see https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-hundreds-of-scientists-accuse-government-of-risking-lives-over-covid-19-plan-11957715. Boris Johnson's government says, “Our aim is to reduce the peak of the outbreak so the NHS will be in stronger state as the weather improves.” The NHS won't cope in the summer or at any time with its few thousand respirators or medical ventilators when hundreds of thousands may need them. No country can cope though many countries pray for "curve flattening". It is propaganda to imply otherwise. Indeed, it is palpable nonsense. If you work out how long each patient would take up a machine and then start to calculate how many staffed machines will be needed it soon becomes clear that even if tens of thousands more machines were available in each of the most populous countries, which they are not, there would be insufficient (trained) hospital staff to cope.

In addition, under the current phase in the UK, self-isolation or household-isolation is required for those who are ill with no immediate contact necessary for testing or getting advice until after a week. This strategy of not testing is short termism as its worst. It is dangerous and flawed. The time lapse of a week doesn't even gel properly with the WHO's combined statistics about incubation, containment and the length of illness. Furthermore, even the UK's and USA's current containment strategies are woefully behind the curve.

How on earth will anyone in the UK know who is immune anymore when those who might have caught the virus are no longer to be tested? It makes you want to cry as it is such a basic flaw in the UK plan. Let's not forget that it is crucial to many (eg in the healthcare or home-care industries) to know: (a) if they have been infected; (b) when they stop being contagious; and (c) when they will become immune etc. As for the rest of us, millions will be left facing almost interminable anxiety. We may well ask, did we get the virus or not, have we infected our families and friends, can we go see our relatives now, can we restart work, will we unintentionally kill anyone et al. Sadly, most of us in the UK under Boris Johnson's current discombobulation policy won't get any answers to this in-exhaustive list of questions.

It is essential for all those working in the health and care sectors to know if they have had the virus and whether they are no longer infectious etc so as they can start work without fear of contagion in their work places. Are they going to selfishly return to work after a week's absence not knowing if they are still infected or immune or what? That's what the UK government currently has planned. That's what is inevitably going to happen in the USA given the absence of testing capabilities. Remember, without testing, patients can only guess at why they were ill in the first place.

Furthermore, knowledge of having had the virus is important for most UK and particularly US citizens (who rely on private insurance) for all sorts of reasons whether or not they have long term illnesses etc. For example, in the post-Corona era, being able to say if you are immune to the virus will be important irrespective of when a vaccine has been created and crucial for all health and travel insurance purposes. Most countries are expected to ask penetrating medical questions to future prospective visitors in the post-Corona era but how can anyone answer them if they don't even know if they had the virus?

It all boils down to leadership and testing. The USA needs someone it can trust, someone other than a pathological liar and criminal to lead the charge against this virus. The WHO needs a plain-speaking no-nonsense leader to better embarrass and/or encourage those countries that are responding badly and/or can't cope with the virus.

All countries must continue and step up testing and pool their resources for creating the requisite number of test kits and ventilators; on that score, lest we forget, in January the USA turned down an offer of help from Germany to provide WHO approved test kits. In any event, in order to tackle the crisis effectively in the long term, it is considered crucial that test kits should be available to prove whether or not someone has had CoronaVirus to help stem the epidemic and, inter alia, alleviate global anxiety and worldwide depression in the future. ??

This article, published on 14 March 2020, was written by Bill Fairclough (https://bit.ly/BillFairclough) who is not medically qualified but has considerable experience in risk assessment and managing country risk related issues.

Post-script

Since 14 March 2020, President Donald Trump has remained in denial about his plan for dealing with the crisis being solely a dream or "vision" and blamed Google for failing to deliver "it". Google have since repeatedly denied that they were ever approached by the White House to discuss "it". Sadly, for the USA they will pay a high price for having chosen Trump as their leader because he has failed his country. As for the truth behind statistics emanating from China, whether the statistics are accurate, valid and complete may never be known.

As for the UK, on 16 March in the first of a series of newly planned daily CoronaVirus updates, Boris Johnson acknowledged almost all the shortcomings referred to in this article relating to the UK and indicated that where practical they would be addressed. In particular, the Prime Minister and his advisers acknowledged that arguably the most important step that can be made to tackle the epidemic is to have test kits available that can show in hindsight if anyone has contracted CoronaVirus: considerable research in that regard is already underway.

As the World Health Organization director general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said on 16 March 2020 “Test, test, test”. He urged countries to test more suspected cases and warned that they “cannot fight a fire blindfolded”.

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