Changing World Order...
Aleksander B.
Programme Manager (Infrastructure) | LLB (Hons) | Advisor | Mentor | Board Member | MAPM | Agile? Passionate about efficient delivery of critical infrastructure fit for the future!
In his book, Principles for Dealing With The Changing World Order, Ray Dalio refers to the 'Big Cycle', neatly summarising this concept with the phrase 'history rhymes' - noting that history’s most important events repeat - though never in exactly the same way - because whilst the cause/effect relationships behind those events are timeless and universal, all things evolve and influence each other in different ways.?
This, I believe, is true for the #project profession - where, in the grip of #uniquenessbias, #projectmanagers see their projects as more unique than they actually are, often failing to realise that history rhymes.
This fallacy is reinforced by Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg 's assertion that if you think your project is unique, you’re likely to fail with it.?
Uniqueness bias was originally identified by psychologists (Kahneman & Tversky, 2011) as the tendency of individuals to see themselves as more singular than they actually are. I believe the term was first used in a #projectplanning and management context by Flyvbjerg in 2014 when he defined uniqueness bias as the tendency of planners and #projectmanagers to see their projects as singular, or unique.?
I believe this is where #AI has the most powerful immediate potential to positively impact the project profession.?
In his previous book, Principles, Ray Dalio coined the term "just another one of those" in relation to decision-making.?This is a reference to situations that are similar to experiences one has encountered in the past, therefore, enabling you to apply the lessons learned from it in order to make the present decision easier, and the resulting outcome better.?
In the context of #megaprojects, this approach is crucial… particularly as research indicates that only 47.5% of projects are delivered on budget; only 7.8% are delivered on budget and on schedule; and only 0.5% are delivered on budget, and on schedule and on benefits (Flyvbjerg & Budzier).?
Flyvbjerg refers specifically to this as #The Iron Law of Megaprojects - "over budget, over time, under benefits, over and over again".
This data suggests that most projects are unsuccessful - with only 1 in 200 delivering what was promised in the #businesscase.
I acknowledge there appears to be no common industry measure to determine project/programme success regarding benefits realisation, (which is unhelpful), and some would argue that cost/schedule framing is too narrow an assessment.
Take Sydney Opera House as an example: the original cost estimate to build was AU$7 million (￡3.9 million): the final cost was?AU$102 million. Another project delivered way over budget - and ten years late. However, more than 10.9 million people visit the opera house every year. Remarkably, the 2018-19 total audience attendance for performing arts events was?1.4 million, so the remaining 9.5 million people went to see the opera house itself - which is clearly a major positive boost for Australia’s economy and culture.
Notwithstanding this, and taking into account the multi-billion pound cost of delivering megaprojects, the amount of waste is mind-blowing and indefensible - not least because most such #investments are taxpayer funded!?
The global #infrastructure project/construction industry contributes?significantly to #GDP - but despite its economic significance, #productivity remains low, waste is high, and success is clearly patchy!?
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But it’s not all doom and gloom.?
A 2021 research paper found that if the sector could enhance productivity by 50% or higher, it would generate an additional $1.6 trillion of value to the industry each year and further boost global #GDP.?
But megaprojects are extremely #complex and susceptible to a variety of unpredictable factors, so how do we do this??. . .
#AI presents the primary opportunity to drive improvements in #knowledgemanagement, reasoning, #problemsolving, #riskmanagement, and #planning, enabling project professionals to deal with complicated and ill-defined problems in an intentional, intelligent, and adaptive manner.?
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Utilising robust #data from multiple sources to generate #actionableinsights that can be exploited to make smart decisions adaptively is the key to the future success of the project profession - particularly in a world characterised by systemic challenges, existential threats and #digitaldisruption.?
?AI will enable the project profession to transform massive data sets into useful #knowledge, leading to a high degree of #automation and #intelligence for better project performance and #profitability.
(I actually wonder how many megaprojects would be approved if business cases were empirically underpinned by reference class data from past projects/programmes, noting that most projects are not unique - they are 'just another one of those').?
Research by Gartner suggests that change is coming soon, predicting that by 2030,?80% of project management?tasks will be run by AI, powered by big data, machine learning (ML), and natural language processing.?
Antonio Nieto-Rodriguez and Ricardo Viana Vargas, Ph.D. have identified six areas of #projectmanagment that will be disrupted:
The technology is here and change is already happening . . . the combination of data and people is making this a reality and we should embrace it.
Martin Paver ’s assertion that organisations should aim to create an interconnected network of #data and #systems that can be 'mined' for #predictiveinsights to serve as a single point of evidence-based truth is exactly where we should be headed as a profession.?Asking at every stage/gate review: "what does the data say?"
Exploiting data in this way will enable organisations to develop #predictivecapabilities for risk, challenge optimism bias, and proceed iteratively, based on meaningful #datadriveninsights.?
This approach should also play a key role in putting #sustainability and 'nature-first' at the heart of major infrastructure investment as the profession drives towards value-driven, sustainable project delivery.
I recognise that data trusts (pooled data) present challenges in terms of who owns the data, how it will be shared and used, commercial sensitivities, and data security - there is obviously a delicate balance to strike - but none of these challenges are insurmountable, nor should they be a barrier to progress.?
The appointment of information fiduciaries is one such solution.
?If the project profession is to realise the improvements in productivity, confidence, and innovative delivery it desperately needs, then #datadriven #projectdelivery should be front and centre - especially if we are to respond and adapt successfully to the Changing World Order.?
The future is bright; the future is data.
Martin Paver Dr Jo Jolly Prof. (Dr) Anusha Shah Adrian Pyne Jonathan Norman, FRSA, FAPM Amy Morley Suzanne Crouch ChPP FAPM Rajesh Pathak Vip Vyas Alexander Budzier Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg James Bawtree Kim Kapur Pradeep Vasudev (WSP Fellow) Jennifer Whyte (白珍) Mladen Vukomanovi? Mark Wild Roger Forsgren Andy Murray Andrew Dowding Infrastructure and Projects Authority (IPA) Major Projects Association Project Management Institute Association for Project Management The Project Data Analytics Task Force Antonio Nieto-Rodriguez Robin Speculand
Senior Director, Resilient Cities and UK Climate Adaptation Lead- Arcadis, Immediate Past President ICE, Non-Exec Director- Met Office, Trustee Green Alliance, Keynote Speaker
1 年Great article Alex! Fully support the use of data analytics and digitalization for the good of people and planet.The potential is indeed huge, the pace which we are missing in addressing the climate and nature emergency can be accelerated with data and technology. As long as we don't become subservient to AI/digital technology, we are headed in the right direction. My Met Office colleague rightly mentioned at our dinner, technology needs to be a copilot not a pilot!
Author of 'Agile Beyond IT'
1 年I heartily agree Tom, hope all well with you
Author of 'Agile Beyond IT'
1 年A thoughtful and well argued piece. There is ample evidence that AI can be hugely beneficial and that organisations would wish to do so if such automation may reduce costs.....and be successful. BUT, there are risks. Questions to existing AI platforms show the dangers of crap in crap out, the bane of IT systems for decades. Perhaps worse is that AI becomes more important than human beings. There is too much history and I simply do not trust the cultures of some organisations and countries not to use AI to abuse and oppress. I believe that it is as important for the international community to establish protocols and law for AI as much as for biological and nuclear weapons.