Changing of the Guard
With over 100 MPs standing down from Parliament, and many seats likely to change hands, regardless of who forms the next Government, it's likely that there are going to be hundreds of first-time MPs after the General Election. In this newsletter, we explore what that might mean for you and your business.
For a deeper dive, join our next webinar on Thursday 6th June at 1pm, where Lexington's Simon Burton OBE, Senior Counsel and Stephanie Lloyd will discuss what significance this will have on the political and demographic composition of Parliament, the effect it will have on parliamentary business - and crucially what it means for your public affairs strategies.
In this edition, we’re also launching our new LexConnect platform, where you’ll be able to track all the candidates in constituencies across the country, look at the latest polling predictions, and compare the policy platforms of the major parties.
New kids on the block
By Simon Burton OBE, Senior Counsel and Stephanie Lloyd, Director
Even in the unlikely event that no seats change hands between the political parties on 4 July, the House of Commons is going to see a significant shift in its composition.
So far 134 MPs have announced their decision not to contest their seats on polling day. A small number of these – mainly on the Conservative benches – have been categorised as ‘displaced’ following the boundary review and are actively seeking an alternative berth. This is significantly above the average of 85 MPs standing down at each election between 1979-2019. The only election seeing a higher number of parliamentarians not seeking to return to the green benches was in 2010 when 149 stood down, a figure inflated by the expenses scandal.
Aside from the number of MPs standing down, it is notable as to how prominent the names are as well with big beasts retiring from the political fray. There are 22 current or former secretaries of state not standing including Theresa May, Michael Gove, Sir Sajid Javid, Dame Andrea Leadsom, and Dominic Raab – all of whom have been involved in some of the most consequential political moments of recent years.
Labour is losing fierce former select committee chair Dame Margaret Hodge, alongside former interim acting leaders Harriet Harman, and Dame Margaret Beckett. As if this wasn’t enough, Ian Blackford (former SNP Westminster leader), 10 select committee chairs, and 2 deputy speakers in Dame Eleanor Laing and Dame Rosie Winterton are departing. It seems only the Lib Dems are fielding the exactly the same team – but they have far fewer MPs to start with, so this is perhaps not too surprising.
Should the significant and consistent poll lead for the Labour Party prove to be accurate when the votes are cast, we can expect the churn in the composition of Parliament to be even greater as seats swap hands.
Both main parties are busy finalising selections ahead of the deadline for nominations on 7 June. The Labour Party has a much swifter process than the Conservative Party where Constituency Associations still have to meet and vote to choose their candidates.
Results could mean that up to half of all MPs could be newly elected. This lack of experience in how to hold the Government to account and fulfil the duties of effective scrutiny is a problem for another day.
For businesses the challenge of building awareness and advocacy will have to start again when the new Parliament is called on 9 July. Using the election campaign period to think about how best to meet your policy objectives in a congested political environment with hundreds of new voices will be key – and we are here to help you do just that.??
LexConnect
Next week, Lexington will be launching our General Election Centre, a dedicated web-based platform covering all the key elements of the General Election campaign. The platform will put key information at your fingertips, including:
Lexington’s expert team is analysing all the latest election developments, and that insight underpins everything on the platform, which will be constantly updated throughout the General Election campaign. Lexington’s General Election Centre is built using our proprietary engagement and stakeholder management tool, LexConnect. If you are not an existing client of Lexington and would like to purchase a subscription to the General Election Centre or talk about it in more detail, please get in touch with us direct at?[email protected] .
Webinar Summary:
On Wednesday, we hosted the latest in our series of webinars previewing the upcoming General Election.
This week, Simon Burton OBE, Senior Counsel at Lexington and former Downing Street Special Adviser, and Stephanie Lloyd, Director at Lexington and former Director of a Labour think tank and adviser to Labour politicians, explored in detail what we’ve seen so far in the campaign, what’s going to happen next, and most importantly - how you can prepare for the next government.?
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For those that were unable to attend - do not fret, we have summarised the discussion below.
What you missed
What happened?
The General Election campaign is officially underway after PM Rishi Sunak set a polling date of 4th July. Sunak surprised seemingly everyone, including his own MPs, by announcing the Election in the pouring rain with a 20-point deficit in the polls.
We now understand that his motivation was due to a lack of cut through on recent major government announcements, such as on welfare and defence spending. Simply put, no one was listening to the PM, and the election was called to steal focus back and shift the dial.
Keir Starmer’s Labour started its own campaign by launching their first steps for Government – giving a more retail offer to the public than their previously announced national missions. They go into this short campaign buoyed by big losses to their political opponents, with the Tories having lost 500 council seats mere weeks ago, and the SNP experiencing a resignation of Humza Yousaf and an incoming leader languishing in the polls.
Wash-up is complete Parliament is now dissolved, meaning that MPs are not in Westminster anymore and will be in their constituencies for the next few weeks. To note, the Government is still the Government, and Ministers are still Ministers until any transition of Government takes place.
What is happening now?
There are a record-breaking number of Conservative MPs standing down at this election (77) - including sitting Cabinet Ministers such as Micheal Gove and Chris Heaton-Harris. Also leaving Parliament are big names such as Theresa May, Andrea Leadsom, Nadhim Zahawi, Kwasi Kwarteng, Sajid Javid and Greg Clark.?
We are now in a period where parties are scrambling to get all their candidates in place. The tight deadline to nominate all candidates is on 7th June, with over 150 Tory candidates still to be selected at the time of writing. Labour on the other hand is much further along in this process, though have had some recent announcements of veteran MPs standing down.
The two parties both have greatly differing mechanisms by which to select their PPCs. Labour’s NEC selects candidates for seats directly - with oversight from Sir Keir, whereas CCHQ gives local constituency parties a choice of 2-4 candidates to pick from.
All nominations must be in by the 4pm deadline on 7th June, with a full announcement of candidates expected just an hour later.
Elsewhere, we have a date for the first live TV debate – 4th June on ITV. There will be at least one more debate on BBC with a date TBC.
The next big milestone will be the release of Manifestos, where we can really dig down into the policies of both parties. These are expected any time in the next few weeks, likely between 10th June and 24th June.
In terms of campaign strategies, we’ve seen the unique experience of an incumbent PM running as an underdog, taking risks with bold policy announcements to try and win back ground on Labour and Reform such as on the Pension Triple Lock and National Service.
Labour on the other hand is seeking to keep the gaffes to a minimum, not giving away much on policy and trying to protect themselves against Tory attack lines.
What will happen next?
After polling day, there are a few key dates for the diary;
There will be a considerable delay in a new Government building up momentum however, as summer recess will begin not long after MPs return to Westminster. Following this, we’ll have the Conference Recess as normal, meaning that we will be in October before a consistent agenda returns to Parliament.
With over 100 MPs standing down from Parliament, and many seats likely to change hands, regardless of who forms the next Government, it's likely that there are going to be hundreds of first-time MPs after the General Election.
Join Lexington's Simon Burton OBE, Senior Counsel and Stephanie Lloyd, Director as they explore what significance this will have on the political and demographic composition of Parliament, the effect it will have on parliamentary business - and crucially what it means for you and your business as you design your stakeholder engagement strategies.
The webinar will take place on 6th June, from 13:00-14:00, and you can register to attend here: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_yTKzD0WnSS-IXWQg7lwHTw#/registration