The changes in automotive that are coming to your driveway

When considering if I should buy a new (or used) car (or not), I found myself asking "is investing in the internal combustion engine a worthwhile endeavour, or should I consider alternate fuel vehicles?" - this article is influenced by those thoughts.

Automotive vehicles as we know them are in the path of increased change and disruption that will directly affect you. This path was set in motion by the likes of Tesla who realized that the internal combustion engine is no longer a long-term viable product, with others continuing to support this disruption through additional changes in how vehicles are powered and used. Those others include ride share companies such as Uber and Lyft, who, if you also thought that were just alternates taxi services, you would be wrong.

We are still at the outset of a longer-term outcome that will redefine the very essence of vehicles and how we use them going forward.

“Power Train”

Tesla has said that it is working on level 4 and level 5 vehicle automation – Level 4 being mostly independent autonomy and level 5 being complete vehicle automation, save perhaps entering the destination. It is not alone in its endeavors either; automotive manufacturers like Volvo, Ford, Renault and Toyota also state that they working on similar systems will come online within the next five years to provide true vehicle automation. Some of them are even creating partnerships to strategically further their goal. For more information on vehicle automation classification levels visit this link.

Once a high level of autonomous vehicle capability is reached, it would be feasible for “express automation only” lanes to exist on highways and other major roadways - much like HOV (ride share) and Toll Lanes exist today. Because control of the vehicle would be given to the autonomous processes, this would allow vehicles in an autonomous state to travel in close proximity to each other, communicating with each other as each vehicle notifies others that is it is joining or leaving the vehicle “train”, or if other conditions exist (e.g. accident ahead). This configuration would all but eliminate human error from the equation - a significant cause of vehicle accidents – meaning that potentially you could get more vehicles on the road traveling much faster.

Today, some insurance companies invite you to optionally install a device in the OBD2 (diagnostic) port that every modern car has which reports back your speed acceleration and braking over time to establish your driving behavior - and therefore estimate the insurable risk of you as a driver. It’s perfectly feasible they could use similar technology to determine how much human versus vehicle automation interaction took place and therefore, assuming they determine automation was a low risk activity, could charge a premium if excessive human driving was used under certain conditions.

With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility

Tesla, Volvo, Audi, BMW and others have or are developing alternate fuel vehicles - typically using battery technology. One of the major challenges with that technology is the charging process, which can take 6-8 hours at a home station using a typical standard outlet, down around one hour with the more powerful charging stations.

Tesla has attempted to resolve this through supercharging stations located across the US, while others have integrated home electrical systems into the charging process. In both cases a more significant amount of (non-traveling) stop time is required to perform a recharge. Regenerative braking does assist to some degree, but is not sufficient for the purpose of anything other than topping up a charge – though it can recoup 15-20% of total kWh usage on average during normal trips (source)

Whilst the hopes on solar charging to assist in charging at any (day)time, solar technology has yet to mature the points where it can deliver scalable, efficient, effective charge at the level required for automotive vehicles on the move; There are other solar solutions available (e.g. Civic Solar’s SolarEdge), but these are fixed location charge points and cannot be used while the vehicle is in motion.

Another significant area of innovation comes in the form of the battery technologies used. Today many use lithium-ion or nickel-metal hydride which come with their own challenges (weight, recharging speed, capacity) - but in the future we could see graphene technology overtake, solving for many of the challenges including more efficient capability & capacity and faster charging ability. A partnership of Honda, NASA and Caltech claims they have developed a stable fluoride battery that could bring petrol-like range to battery powered cars. Battery technology with like-performance or better than internal combustion does seem to be the most likely innovation space to encourage alternate fuel ownership.

Finally, a mention to the thought of investing in infrastructure that provided a means charge the vehicle whilst in motion. This would typically be in the form of a charging loop within the road (possibly available only to the automated control lane mentioned prior) that would feed the current to the vehicle as it moved. Think of this like the wireless charging parents they exist today for your phone. Needless to say, this investment would have to be significant and will probably take many years complete to a significant level. This is less likely to scale well vs. the more immediate likelihood of battery innovation.

Your Car is not your Own

Increased crowded streets and roads, congestion and added costs to own are just some of the issues faced today in owning a car. At the same time, generational shifts are seeing changes in the way that cars are viewed - with some suggesting Millenials see a car as a commodity vs. the status symbol of prior generations. With the advent of ride share services, individuals could use their vehicle to generate additional income, through acting as a taxi service - or indeed now a food delivery service.

But being a ride share service doesn't stop there. Currently Uber is working with Toyota to build vehicles that are designed for ride sharing, while Lyft has had ties to General Motors ($500M investment),  Ford, Jaguar and others. These strategic partnerships are designed to meet the demands of the future - both as Automotive OEMs and third-party services like Uber, where they can facilitate agreements between OEM and consumer. If level 5 automation becomes a reality, it could be likely that you could have the option to lease, or be owner of one or more cars that are used as a ride share service where you can rely on the automation of the car, combined with a service like Uber, to create an income for you, even when you're not using the car personally. You could even elect to make that service only available to certain people (e.g. family and friends) - effectively trusted ride share services.

Driving as we know it...

In conclusion, having autonomous cars using scalable charging services, where you may be a car owner or just consumer of the car and its services is very likely. Possibly it's also likely insurance companies will take this as an impetus to charge the public significantly more to own a vehicle with no or little automation (as that is inherently a bigger insurable risk), while gas stations become few and far between due to the steady increase of alternate fuel owned vehicles.

With all this considered, I estimate that by 2030 owning a car powered by an internal combustion engine and no automation, like many of us do today, would be a luxury for reserved those prepared to pay a premium, while the rest of us increasingly use shared services to meet our needs. Are you ready for that change? Please comment and let me know!