Change? Just do it!

Achieving exponential change requires action from all of us

A few weeks ago I posted this quote by DeepMind founder Demis Hassabis on LinkedIn "Either we need an exponential improvement in human behavior — less selfishness, less short-termism, more collaboration, more generosity — or we need an exponential improvement in technology”.

This quote generated a lot of discussion, on- and off-line. Quite a few people felt that it represented a defeatist view of humankind and that we cannot just rely on technology alone to solve the problems we are facing. Others (including Hassabis) argued that there is no sign of exponential improvement in human behavior, so we might as well pursue exponential improvements in AI with a view to a better future.

We live in a time of very binary thinking. Things are either black or white, right or wrong, left or right, in the media and in discussions with people around us. We have somehow reached a point where nuanced discussion seems harder than in the past, where shades of grey and ambiguity seem to be overtaken by just two strictly defined opposites, firmly set against each other.  This certainly applies in a political context. The public discourse in many countries is dominated by ideological positioning and simplistic inward looking perspectives, often designed by authoritarian leaders to engage a disgruntled constituency. We are seeing this to at times extreme levels in the US, in parts of Europe such as Hungary, Austria, Poland and Turkey and in parts of Asia. While politicians are setting the tone, this way of communicating has crept into every part of our lives and makes a robust civic discourse very hard.

Unfortunately this comes at a time when the world we know is changing fast. Let’s look at just three pivotal trends that directly affect us today - technology, climate change and the displacement of millions of people around the world. 

Technology is transforming every aspect of our lives. There are many great developments underway that revolutionize for example health care or transport. But there are also real challenges, including in the labor market with automation playing a major role in replacing human labor. Just last week Japan’s UNIQLO reported that it had replaced 90% of its warehouse workers with robotic systems and intended to expand this model to all its warehouses. Another example – Singapore’s Changi airport is aiming to develop a new terminal requiring just one human being for service delivery. We will see these trends globally in the next few years with service and unskilled labor being replaced, creating society-wide ramifications.

On the issue of climate change the latest UN report paints a dire picture with only seven countries (and not the wealthy ones) meeting the Paris goals. The report paints a “best-case” scenario by describing what the world will look like if it warms by only 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of this century. To achieve this we would need to abandon coal and other fossil fuels in the next decade or two, a change that seems radical to many and unlikely given the recent revival of support for these industries by some governments, including the USA and Australia.

Finally, the latest report from the U.N. Refugee Agency estimates that there are now 40 million internally displaced persons, 25.4 million and 3.1 million asylum seekers, an unprecedented total of 68.5 million people forced from their homes. The numbers continue to grow with 44,400 people (one person every two seconds) fleeing their homes because of violence or persecution every day. Behind these numbers are real people: men, women and children who feel fear, pain, anger and hope as a result of the changes forced upon them by political and environmental circumstance.

To come back to Hassabis’ quote - just these three issues paint a picture which demands both exponential improvements in human action and exponential improvements in technology. This is made even harder by the fact that we live in a low trust environment – towards institutions, political leaders, a whole range professions, technologies – which leads to anti-scientific and anti-pluralist positions.

It’s easy in this context to bemoan the “lack of exponential improvement in humans”. But Hassabis gives us a hint when he refers to “less selfishness, less short-termism, more collaboration, and more generosity”. 

Let’s remember that any improvements have to start with all of us as individuals – they are not just someone else’s, some “other human’s”, responsibility.  If we do not want to wait for technology it’s up to all of us to take action and responsibility now. Surely, it’s not that hard to be less selfish, less short-term focused, more collaborative and more generous every day?

What could that look like? Here are some ideas:

• First of all, let’s start by having robust civic discourses in our communities. Begin with your families and friends, your work colleagues and neighbors. Extend this conversation to people you do not know and who might think quite differently to you.
• Really listen to someone else’s point of view, wanting to understand their motivations. It requires connecting at a human level with compassion and generosity, rather than quickly resorting to ideological positions that might help you “win” the argument.
• If you are a politician, connect back to your values. What is it that you stand for as an individual? What do you believe in? Recent surveys show that people are less and less inclined to vote along party lines but are attracted to people who have a clear individual agenda to bring to the political process, hence the growing success of independent candidates. Stand up to some of the party politics which require you to take a stance you might not agree with. Recognize that as an elected representative you are there to “serve” the people not just your political donors. This requires a level of altruism and taking positions that might not align with your personal interest.
• As a voter, make sure you carefully check the person you are voting for. Are they the kind of leader you want to see as your representative? What moral and ethical (not just political) stance do they take on issue you care about? Don’t just jump to vote for someone just because of party political allegiances.
• If you are a business leader or non-executive board director, focus your actions not just on short-term profits but also on creating long-term value and on the moral and ethical obligations you have. This requires a shift in the conversation with stakeholders, it might be slow but it needs to be done. Some business leaders have already recognized this and are participating in projects designed to change the focus, for example the Embankment project or the Inclusive Capitalism Coalition.
• If you want to make a difference on climate change and refugees, lobby politicians but also take action that you yourself can control. For example, reduce your use of environmentally damaging products, such as plastics and invest in solar power if you can. Sponsor a refugee family to make a difference at an individual level.

And if you think you cannot make a difference because you are only one person and current geo-politics do not give you much hope, think about the Berlin wall. I grew up with it and could never have imagined that it would come down and to see my family reunited across the two parts of Germany. But it did happen – and it was people who made it happen, individually and collectively.

Bringing about exponential improvements to human action does not have to involve great sacrifice – it is possible to connect with other people and make a difference to someone’s life; it is possible to make investments which are commercially and socially useful; it is possible to bring about broader changes to politics, business, the economy and the planet.

So, please take that human action and bring about exponential improvements – starting today.