Conflicts in the Balkans 2023

Mr Henze, you are one of the few specialised experts on Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans in the West, the year 2023 has arrived, we want to use this time to talk about the future of the Balkans.?

A few years ago, hardly anyone wanted to follow hints from you and your conservative colleagues on the importance of military strength for maintaining peace, everyone talked about peace without the military and the future in a peaceful Europe, this also applies to the Balkans.?

Yes, unfortunately. The Roman motto "Se vis pacem para bellum", if you want peace, prepare for war, has always applied. The first line of defence of Europe and therefore also of Ukraine, when it comes to security, is military equipment and parallel to that economic and social stability, we call that a functioning social, ecological market economy.

In recent years, the situation has always reminded me of the na?ve disarmament conferences at the beginning of the 1930s. At that time, too, it was the socialists and social democrats who wanted to abolish weapons. Even then, they confused reality and visions. The result was ultimately the Second World War. Churchill, whom I admire very much, describes this very well in his diaries. It was essentially thanks to Churchill, and subsequently also to the USA, that the massacre in Europe was brought to an end.

Now, unfortunately, it is visible to the whole world, Ukraine and Syria are in ruins and now the games in the Balkans are beginning, this was already predictable on 24 February 2022.?

And the EU and some representatives from the USA are again making the same mistakes as in the 1930s.

They said that with autocrats of the Putin type, here in the person of Vucic or the Rama group, the Rama group is classified by international media as a MAFIA organisation, one?can negotiate or freeze the conflict.

Unfortunately, they did not listen to these people and did not really believe their own intelligence services. For a long time they did not understand what the autocrats really want.

They were in a neurological perception loop, what should not exist, does not exist. This also explains the statements of the German foreign ministers Baerbock, von der Leyn, Marcron, Scholz and the others from the EU institutions, in the real sense they have woken up, personally.

Scholz spoke of a turning point, curious, there is no turning point, the cold war was not interrupted, only he and some others have woken up. Whereas the German, socialist Chancellor Scholz seems not to have completely left the perception loop, because he generalises the waking up, as a condition, in his so-called great speech in the German Bundestag, he did not use the word: waking up but turn of times. He does not speak of himself, but objectifies the subject. As a result, he lacks direct access to reality, which is unfortunately very cruel in Ukraine at the moment.

This might also be an explanation for the hesitant attitude of the German socialist Chancellor Scholz providing comprehensive support to Ukraine, a country under attack. After the murder of 9 million Ukrainians by the German Reich, comprehensive support for Ukraine is part of the German reason of state.

The socialist German Chancellor still does not seem to have fully grasped the dimension of Putin's war speech on 24 February 2022 and its implications for Ukraine and peace in Europe, as well as the complete failure of the 20th century policy tool, change through rapprochement.

Putin has repeated there what he has communicated again and again since 2001, in varying quality.

There is also another issue. When the socialist Scholz states, as he did again in his article in Foreign Affairs a few weeks ago, that the Germans want to be the guarantor of European security, then he is not doing justice to the responsibility of a German chancellor, a European, precisely through such a pattern of behaviour. I think German Social Democrats, like Helmut Schmidt, Kurt Schumacher, Egon Bahr, Fritz Reuter or Herbert Wehner are turning in their graves.

Putin and the others unfortunately only understand one language, the language of power. They will also no longer engage in freezing conflicts. Their experience with 1989 is sufficient. We are not only physically , but also geo - politically in the 21st century.

Are the awakened politicians qualified for their offices?

No, in the business world, a CEO of a company would not be allowed to react like the socialist Chancellor Scholz. Imagine a shareholders' meeting of a big stock exchange company, the company is having big economic problems and the chairman says: "Sorry, I woke up, or: "Now is a turning point".

The man or woman would no longer be chairman of the board for 24 hours and would also be likely to face a lawsuit for damages.

The person would be unfit to lead a corporation.

It is becoming apparent that we also need to exercise more care in the selection of leadership personnel in the government sector.

With the exception of London and Washington. It seems that especially in the UK the legacy and experience of Churchill has not been forgotten, no quarter given to autocrats. UK and US saved us from a big mess and probably a 3rd world war in spring 2022. Boris Johnson and Joe Biden have done a good job. Especially Johnson who showed the flag in Kiev, that reminded me a bit of Churchill. This also shows that the British are missing in the EU.

And internationally ?

Boris Johnson had already pointed out in March 2022 that the Balkan wars could be compared to the Ukraine war. Indeed, Vucic, encouraged by Putin, will not accept a deal to recognise the state of Kosovo. Those who believe this have a perceptual blockade and will also, unfortunately, wake up too late.?

However, should Putin fall, so will Vucic and, for that matter, Rama. Should Russia succeed even a millimetre in Ukraine, there will be another and then real proxy war in the Balkans, not in the Baltic States.?

But there is not only rubble, international law is in danger of being shattered, the cultural achievement of the 19th and 20th centuries. A permanent member of the UN Security Council launched a war of aggression on 24 February 2022, coupled with the statement of wanting to commit genocide against Ukrainian culture.

In this respect, the international peace order needs to be reformed. The UN Security Council has become obsolete in its present structure. States that want to kill you cannot be negotiated with, as the great Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir, whom I admired greatly, once said.

And the Balkans?

I am often in the Balkans. I am very annoyed that Western and Eastern countries, as well as many NGOs, treat the Balkan countries and their people from above, basically they are treated like children, re-traumatised by similar patterns that people had to experience in communist times, and now they want to teach these upright people lessons in democracy and anti-corruption, ridiculous.?

Some behave like governors, like the US Ambassador Kim, in Tirana, who in parallel also protect the corrupt autocrats, this creates additional distance, a destructive behaviour, which harms the West and peace in Europe.

It cannot be ruled out that many Western NGO representatives and ambassadors are sponsored by local autocrats. In addition, unfortunately many countries do not exactly send the best personnel to the Balkans.

On the contrary, I believe that the people of the Balkans and especially the Albanian nation, which is one of the oldest cultural nations in the world, is teaching the Western world an important lesson.??

Already with the revolution in 1992 and then with the Balkan wars initiated by a Serbian-Russian aggressor in Belgrade for almost 10 years and the disinformation campaigns against Albanians led by Serbia afterwards, it shows how resistant and how enthusiastic nevertheless the Albanians are about the Western system.

The democracies in Europe and the USA have been dealing with dictators and autocrats for decades, including Rama and Vucic in the Balkans. This creates a huge perception gap among the nations in the Balkans.?

In contrast, the pro-Western opposition in Albania, for example, proves that democratic values, principles of civilisation, such as human rights and the rule of law must be sincerely defended, even at great cost.?

Thus, in part, these upright patriots of democracy and Western civilisation are marginalised by the Western supporters of the autocrats, culminating in 2021 with the attacks against the democratic President Meta and the denial of a private entry visa to Sali Berisha, the father of the Western integration of the Balkans, by the US, based on forged documents of the autocracy.

What is the reason for this?

Some political leaders in the EU and the US, but also part of the Western population, have inherited democracy and wealth. They are no longer fighters or patriots. They enjoy the holiday and the warm flat.

They are only consumers of this wealth, they are decidedly fed up. They are quick to trade values for the illusion of security or prosperity, thinking that whether it is the Balkans or other countries, all that is needed is sufficient stability to secure this wealth with whomever.

This is an essential mistake of Western foreign policy, which has led to the destruction of Syria and now Ukraine. It would be important to learn from these mistakes now.

It must be clear that when an autocracy has taken root in a country, as in Serbia or Albania, the people have the right to fight this autocracy.?

De facto, Albania is occupied by a small, corrupt group and oppresses the population. A large part is fleeing, a part is opportunistic and a larger part is fighting.

The task of the West is to support the majority that fights against the autocracy, this also means a very clear language and exclusion of the autocrats. It is unacceptable when the President of the EU Commission, the representative of the most corrupt executive in Europe, and therefore the person in charge, embraces him in a friendly manner. What kind of images are these, what impact do they have on the consciousness of the nations in the Balkans.

Is the fight against corruption in the Balkans, which has just been focused on by foreign countries, the way for Albania to create a future for the region?

Corruption always leads to a deformation of the whole society and thus to chaos. Chaos means war, death and suffering.??Per se, fighting corruption is important, we do it in the US and Germany too, but corruption in Albania is a symptom and at the same time part of the cause.

A symptom of what?

For one thing, Albania lacks sound economic, social and financial policies.?The result is mass unemployment, mass flight, mass poverty, increasing inflation and high national debt.?

Many Albanians have to work 3-4 jobs to support their families, which overburdens people physically and psychologically. Suicide rates in Albania are unusually high. The mortality rate in Albania is on a par with some of the poorest countries in Africa. Only those who have money can buy the health of their families. This is a very small group of about 7% of society.

This results in poverty-related corruption. This can only be fought with good social and economic policies, not with a judge.

Secondly, the really primary problem is that the Rama executive is one of the most corrupt organisations in the world. This is a structural corruption that is controlled from above and must indeed be fought legally. The only problem in Albania is that the government organises precisely this corrupt executive. Such an organisation does not fight itself.

In this respect, under the heading of anti-corruption in Albania, it is ultimately the political opponent, the pro-Western opposition, that is being fought. We know this pattern very well from Russia.

This is another reason why the money hardly reaches the citizens.

After 11 years of exploitation of the Albanian nation, the Albanian state is de facto broke and only keeps its head above water with income from black money transactions, i.e. black money investment.?

In addition, tax money from the EU states and the USA stabilises the country and thus the autocracy.

Unfortunately, the international grants are not linked to conditions such as a democratic electoral law, new elections, etc. The executive Rama is increasingly being forced to accept.

The Rama executive is finding it increasingly difficult to access the bond capital market, as interest rates are rising significantly.

Was the previous eleven-year reign of the socialist Rama government, with its massive interventions in economic affairs, a foretaste of the current crisis and its aftermath?

I am convinced of that.

But let's get one thing straight first. The Rama government really has nothing to do with socialism or social democracy. Europe's largest newspaper has put it in a nutshell: it is a MAFIA government. The socialists in particular have a tendency towards corrupt structures, as we can see again now with the corruption scandal in Brussels.?

You have to explain that, the governing party Rama calls itself a socialist party and that is not true?

No. The ruling party Rama has indeed deposited the word socialism in its party statutes, but, as they say in Germany and in Albania: "paper is patient".

The goal of social democracy is a society based on solidarity and pluralism, in which everyone enjoys equal opportunities and an equal degree of political freedom and welfare. It is therefore not about a counter-position to capitalism, but about equal rights, emancipation and prosperity for all sections of society.

After 11 years of actionism by Rama, Balla, Veliaj and the combatants Alibeaj, Basha and Tabaku, Albania is on the precipice, so, no goals have been achieved, on the contrary, the country is starving , people are fleeing or dying, many women are abused, the only way they can get a job.

Rama's governance is marked by an exponential growth of corruption of his executive, money laundering, drug trafficking, the impoverishment of large sections of society, most Albanians need several jobs, families are torn apart, the country is increasingly marked by it.

The country can only sustain itself through foreign aid and loans from the international capital market. However, this is not a sustainable state of affairs and does not create prospects for Albanian families and youth.

The mass emigration of Albanian professionals is increasingly leading to the implosion of the real economy and the entire social and health system. Finally, the criminals and the old people will be left in Albania who will not want to leave their homeland unless something fundamental changes in Albania. In the long run, the rest of the Albanians will then also emigrate. The reason is that the social and health systems are getting worse and worse.

What does that have to do with freedom, happiness, prosperity and equal opportunities? Nothing.?

The ruling Rama party is a pure functionary party that concentrates on stabilising the power of the Rama administration. The sovereign is provided with, as we say in Europe, "small crumbs" and small jobs, but this does not organise a future for the individual.

It is de facto a narco-government in Albania, i.e. a kleptocracy, as we know it quite well from Africa and Latin America.

Can this development be stemmed and if so, how?

Albania first needs a new government. One that is decent and also lives by civilisational principles; a government is the first servant of the state.

The current government does not represent the interests of the majority of the Albanian population and it has no legitimacy to represent the Albanian people.

No legitimacy?

In fact, the last two parliamentary elections in Albania were massively rigged to the advantage of the ruling Rama party, the OSCE and other institutions have reported extensively on this.?

The foreign security services have detailed material on this, so that no ambassador in Albania can claim otherwise. In addition, the last parliamentary elections were held on the basis of an anti-democratic electoral law. Despite the intervention of the USA, Europe and the Venice Commission.

Surely then the rule of law in Albania should react?

The rule of law is also dysfunctional in Albania. The reason is a grossly deficient legal reform and the judiciary cannot operate in a legal vacuum, it is under the control of the executive/legislature. In this respect, the annulment of rigged elections cannot happen in Albania, at least not under the regime of the current government. In Albania, it is very clear that the ideology of feasibility has limits.

What do you mean by that?

When a democracy and the rule of law have been so badly damaged, as in Albania, it can no longer eliminate the anti-democratic state on its own.

It is then only possible, as on 12 September 1980 in Turkey under the leadership of Chief of General Staff Evren, through a military coup, a small evil that prevents an even greater evil, or as in the 1989 revolutions in Eastern Europe. As Kennedy once said, and I quote, "He who makes a peaceful revolution impossible makes a violent one inevitable."

In May there are local elections in Albania, the rule of law is still dysfunctional and a democratic electoral law does not exist, also the Rama government has reorganised the constituencies, certainly to its advantage.

So we will see what happens.

And what will happen then?

If then again in the municipalities where the ruling party rules, falsifications occur, money gifts are distributed in the form of jobs and contracts, the election is thus manipulated, people are put under pressure, it shows that democracy no longer exists in Albania, then Albania is likely to find itself again in a situation like in 1992.

In the political theory of the classical liberal contract theorists, for example in Thomas Hobbes, self-justification is the initial justification of state power: Democracy and the rule of law in Albania exist so that everyone in Albania does not kill themselves or leave the country.?

So, if this rule structure is no longer working in Albania, the only option is for the illegitimate Rama government to call new elections and to design a democratic electoral law in advance with all political parties, as already tried once in 2019. If this does not happen, the Albanian people will be forced to act, either through a referendum, a legitimate means, or they will have to follow Kennedy's quote, as they did in 1992.

Back to Kosovo: war or peace in 2023?

Since 1991, it became clear that the Serb-dominated Yugoslav central government was not prepared to accept the dissolution of the multi-ethnic state desired by most of the republics without violent countermeasures.?

While Slovenia and Croatia were able to muster enough of their own substance to underpin their claim to sovereignty and the Yugoslav leadership quickly realised that their own would not be sufficient to prevent secession, the situation in the case of Bosnia-Herzegovina was already different. Strong economic and industrial interests, the relative proximity to the strategic base as well as the multi-ethnic composition of the population with a strong Serbian ethnic group were decisive reasons for the Yugoslav leadership's violent attempt to keep this constituent republic within the state, while the government in Belgrade carried out massive war crimes.

The international community only intervened after the human rights violations in Bosnia, already known from Slovenia and Croatia, escalated and ultimately threatened the extermination of an entire ethnic-religious minority.

The Dayton Agreement in 1995, which ultimately recognised Bosnia's sovereignty on all sides, only came about after the West had provided military support to Croatia and the Bosnian Muslims and intervened in the conflict itself. Before that, the UN's involvement in the form of diplomatic measures and the peacekeeping force UNPROFOR had failed under sobering and sometimes dramatic circumstances.?

In the case of Kosovo, as is well known, things were even more complicated. The former constituent republic was incorporated into Serbia in 1987 and the Serbian leadership systematically nurtured the myth of the historical Serbian heartland. The Albanian majority was massively disenfranchised.

Furthermore, in view of the Albanian majority in Kosovo and in the light of the relative instability of the state environment, which had become clearly evident in Albania in 1997, as well as significant Albanian minorities in Macedonia, for example, the problem arose for the international community that an escalating conflict in Kosovo de facto called into question the stability of the entire region to a previously unknown extent.?

This ultimately arose from the continued Serbian policy of repression, which consistently denied the Kosovars minority rights, and the Albanian population group's growing desire for freedom and independence.?

The international community initially reacted mainly with diplomatic mediation efforts, which eventually had to be backed up by the threat of the use of military force due to Serbia's intransigent attitude.?

The Yugoslav leadership then pursued a two-pronged strategy: the accelerated creation of a fait accompli in Kosovo and the procrastination of measures by the international community.?

It can now be considered certain that the Serbian negotiators in Rambouillet had no mandate to accept a solution in the sense of the West, while in Kosovo "Operation Horseshoe" was underway, which aimed both to crush the KLA and to create ethnically "pure" territories and thus a fait accompli.

In parallel, it was Serbian calculation that a UN Security Council mandate, generally considered necessary for a military intervention by the international community, would not come about due to the backing of the ally in Moscow. Only when it became clear through the NATO operation, led by Germany and the USA, that this was obviously not going to work, that their own strategic goals could no longer be achieved, that a split in the alliance could not be achieved and that their own existential destruction was threatened, did they give in.?

Several insights can be derived from these events:

1.findings from the events of that time and the developments in Ukraine is that military force is at least still necessary in 21st century Europe to stop violence against minorities and the violation of human rights. This is especially true in the Balkans.

2. the Serbs wanted to prevent local elections in northern Kosovo, which had become necessary after all Serbian officials had left the Kosovar institutions at the beginning of November 2022. They withdrew from both parliament and government. The four mayors in the north of the country also resigned. Several hundred Serb police officers left the Kosovo police force, as did Serb judges who no longer go to work in northern Kosovo.

The boycott of Kosovar institutions was a reaction to Albin Kurti's plan to ban car licence plates issued by Serbian authorities in Kosovo and exchange them for Kosovar ones. For Kurti, this is a matter of principle of "reciprocity" because Serbia does not accept Kosovar car licence plates; for President Vucic and the Kosovo Serbs, it is the preparation of an "ethnic cleansing".

In the meantime, the government in Pristina has postponed both projects - the local elections and the introduction of new licence plates - probably under pressure from the EU and above all the USA. Now the West is also demanding that Serbia ease tensions. But it does not look like that is going to happen at the moment. Looking back at the developments in the 1990s, we can see very well that the West is making the same mistakes. It is believed that Belgrade will give in, but this is not the case. Incidentally, Vucic, like Putin, is very straightforward in his strategy.

How is this to be understood?

General Milan Mojsilovi? was in Moscow on 5 August 2019 and had also discussed and agreed on Russian army support for challenges in Kosovo. A short time later, Vucic received Russia's highest order from Putin in Belgrade.?"Russia as a strategic partner will continue to support us in many ways," said the Chief of the General Staff of the Serbian Army, General Milan Mojsilovi?, explaining that "we have the support of the Russian Army for the challenges in Kosovo and Metohija.

Further, he said that they had specifically analysed the situation in Kosovo and Metohija in Moscow and stated that Pristina's unilateral steps threaten the security situation. "We have received support from the Russian military leadership on how we work in relation to Kosovo. Of course, we are particularly concerned about the security of Serbs, not only in northern Kosovo and Metohija, but in the whole province," he said.

Former Kosovo Prime Minister Ramu? Haradinaj was reacting to the statement by the Chief of the General Staff of the Serbian Armed Forces that Serbia had the support of the Russian army for the challenges in Kosovo.

Haradinaj wrote on Facebook that he had reminded Mojsilovi?, whom he called "the new commander of the old infamous army of Serbia", that "Milo?evi? thought similarly but performed badly".

And what has the EU done? Several times Mojsilovi? has been offered the opportunity to take part in talks of NATO and other institutions in Brussels. Moscow and Belgrade were thus allowed to gain an official insight into the security architecture of NATO and the EU. This is problematic behaviour on the part of the EU and NATO.

This behaviour of the international community in the 1990s is unfortunately being repeated at present, as can be seen from the helpless actions of the EU foreign representative Joseph Borell or the uncreative actions of the US representative Escobar.

Helpless action, isn't that a little pointed?

No. On 17 February 2008, the parliament of the Republic of Kosovo unilaterally declared independence, i.e. against the will of Serbia, as Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Bosnia-Herzegovina had done before.

Kosovo's constitution came into force on 15 June 2008, in which its own sovereign status was enshrined.

Serbia refused to give its consent to Kosovo's independence. On 15 August 2008, Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremi? lodged a complaint with the United Nations and expressed the wish for an opinion from the International Court of Justice. This initiative was granted on 8 October 2008 with 77 votes in favour, 74 abstentions and six votes against.

The International Court of Justice clarified that Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence was not contrary to international law.The decision was announced on 22 July 2010 by Hisashi Owada, the President of the Court.?

In this respect, there can be no more backtracking on this decision. Escobar and others seem to have overlooked the legal situation, a real blunder of US and EU foreign policy. Incidentally, their actions are not likely to have been coordinated with President Biden, who is a great supporter of Kosovo.

And now, what is the alternative course of action?

For one thing, the current situation under international law must be accepted by all sides. If that is not the case, there can be no solution.

If that were to be the case, there would have to be an agreement on what is really at stake. It is certainly primarily about the protection of the respective minorities on Serbian territory and about the protection of Serbian minorities on the territory of the Republic of Kosovo. If this is the case, a solution could be developed, as we Germans negotiated with the GDR in the early 1970s and with Denmark in the mid-1950s. Incidentally, very successful projects and their contents can easily be transferred to the situation in the Balkans.

The solution to the conflict consists of two parts:

1. there must be a basic treaty between Serbia and Kosovo on the basis of which mutual state sovereignty is recognised.?

In it, the following points are to be stipulated and guaranteed:

a.?????????The development of good neighbourly relations on an equal basis.

b.?????????Both states commit themselves to the principles of the UN, the EU and NATO.

c.?????????Both states undertake to refrain from the use of force in the settlement of disputes. The "inviolability of borders" does not preclude a change of borders by mutual consent.

d.?????????Neither state can represent the other internationally.

e.?????????Both states undertake to participate in the process of the CSCE to be revived and to disarm their countries under the control of the UN.

f.?????????Both states agree that sovereignty is limited to their own territory and that they respect each other's autonomy and independence in internal and external affairs.

g.?????????Exchange of foreign policy representations/embassies.

h.?????????Property and reparation issues should be settled separately.

i.??????????Ratification and entry into force in the 1st quarter of 2024.

2. this treaty should be complemented by a treaty on the mutual protection of minorities:

a.?????????The profession of Albanian or Serbian or Bosnian ethnicity and culture shall be free and shall not be contested or verified by Serbia and Kosovo.

b.?????????Members of the respective minorities must have the opportunity to use the language they wish to speak and write.

c.?????????No special rights shall be granted to the respective minorities; the free confession of the respective ethnicity as well as equality before the law and the right to equal treatment as well as the recognition of the special interest of the respective minority in maintaining its religious, cultural and professional ties shall be confirmed.

d.?????????Both states will, in agreement with the EU, accede to the 1995 Council of Europe Framework Convention for the Protection of National Minorities, if they have not already done so, and declare this Convention to be an integral part of the Basic Treaty.?

3.In addition to these agreements, there would have to be a special decision by the EU that accession talks with the EU would also be opened with the Republic of Kosovo. This would be the basis for a future-oriented development of the Balkans in the family of civilised nations and a big door for the integration of Serbia and the Republic of Kosovo into the EU.

Mr Henze, thank you very much for the interview.

Interviews in Albanian language, Change in Europe:

https://dardaniapress.com/ne-kosove-lufte-apo-paqe-ne-vitin-2023/

https://gazetashqiptare.al/2023/01/04/kriza-ne-kosove-dhe-shqiperi-analiza-nga-eksperti-gjerman-cdu-se-ja-si-marrin-fund-problemet-ne-politiken-shqiptare/

https://www.ballikombetar.info/ne-shqiperi-mafia-i-sundon-pleqte-qe-nuk-mund-te-ikin-prej-saj/

https://ciceroni-ks.com/2023/01/04/korrupsioni-dhe-mafia-kontrollojne-rendin-politik-ne-shqiperi/

https://alb-spirit.com/2023/01/04/henze-shqiperia-te-ndahet-nga-qeveria-mafioze-kosova-te-pranohet-ne-familjen-europiane/

https://infopressalbania.com/2023/01/04/konflikti-kosove-serbi-heinze-duhet-nje-traktat-ne-baze-te-te-cilit-te-njihet-sovraniteti-i-ndersjellte-shteteror/

https://dardaniapress.com/shteti-i-se-drejtes-eshte-jofunksional-ne-shqiperi/