Change or Continuity, It’s Horse-trading Season

In just a couple of months perhaps, the world’s largest democracy goes to the polls. The ruling party, BJP, is so confident of returning to power for a third successive term that it has even forecast the number of seats it will win. Prime minister Modi said during his speech in Parliament just a few days ago that he thinks BJP will garner 370 seats on its own and the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) will cross 400 seats this time. He captured it with a customary slogan, “Ab ki baar, 400 paar” which translates to “This time around, 400 unbound”. Forgive my awful attempt at a rhyming slogan!

Meanwhile, the other alliance that was formed just a few months ago is in complete disarray with various parties threatening to go their own ways. I.N.D.I.A was meant to be an alliance of opposition parties coming together to mount a challenge to the BJP juggernaut. So far it is anything but, since the only objective behind the alliance is to defeat Modi and his BJP in the upcoming elections. While the Congress prince has undertaken another yatra (walking journey), this time from Manipur in the East to Mumbai in the West, his senior partners from TMC and AAP have threatened to go it alone. And the many-time CM of Bihar and wily politician has actually jumped ship for the nth time; JDU is back within the NDA fold. Nobody knows how the I.N.D.I.A alliance will fare and whether it will even stay together for the elections, considering they haven’t figured out how they will contest the elections together yet. I would imagine even less thought has been given to something like a common minimum programme on which all parties can agree and promise to govern by, should they ever win the elections. Such a programme would at least help bind the alliance together and give them something worthwhile to fight elections on.

The government just presented its interim Union Budget and it was a saving grace in that it didn’t promise the heavens to the various constituencies and actually managed to lower the fiscal deficit below target. It didn’t have to promise sops because it will be back in power. At the moment it seems like a down-to-earth budget and we will have to wait for more details in July, though I wish they would tackle long-neglected problems such as education, healthcare and good quality employment with serious earnestness.

And while we await our parliamentary elections, it is reported that over 60 countries worldwide are going to be conducting elections this year. 2024 is a big year for democracy you might think. A big test for democracy is more likely. Elections in Bangladesh were held with the opposition party boycotting it, which is hardly a hurrah for democracy. Taiwan’s election is a win for the incumbents under new leadership and Pakistan’s will likely see another old wily fox return, with the incumbent leader in prison!

Let’s just say that many other countries are not as lucky as India is. Predominantly two-party systems have it easier. The US elections could see Trump return to office, which will probably make the entire world a more dangerous place. In the UK elections, it is being forecast that Labour is well ahead of the Tories, what with the latter’s disastrous Brexit policy and public services, including the NHS, in poor shape.

What can one say about India’s gargantuan democracy with its scores of political parties, and only one of them guaranteed to win? Of course, one can argue that at the national level India too has only two major contenders, the INC and the BJP. And yes, perhaps in a strange way even our voters have had an easy decision to make for the past two elections, given that one of the two national contenders is doing everything to make itself irrelevant. India’s GOP is itself encountering senior-level exits, one after another. And the I.N.D.I.A alliance seems an afterthought. I always thought that it was poor branding; the idea of adopting the country’s name for a political alliance seemed expedient, especially when there is no serious intent. Perhaps, it is another shabby symbol of a divided and polarized country called India.

As if opposition parties in India aren’t already agitated enough, we have the ruling government setting the ED (Enforcement Directorate) and CBI (Central Bureau of Investigation) after many of their politicians. BJP doesn’t need to do this to win an election since it is a foregone conclusion, but I think it makes for very clever political campaigning. From the PM’s speech in parliament, it seemed that the fight against corruption is going to be a big part of BJP’s campaign narrative. Remember how they turned even demonetization into campaign narrative, claiming to be fighting the rich with ill-gotten wealth and black money, especially in the UP assembly elections of 2017, which was a must-win for BJP at the time?

Which brings me back to the main question: does continuity present an advantage over change, where democracy is concerned? Democracy is where the will of the people is exercised, usually to usher in change, and if there is only one party favoured to win time and again, does it mean India is an exemplar of democracy? I don’t think continuity is always superior to change, especially when the opposition or an alternative is non-existent. It is only a poor, default option.

There are still weeks and months to go for the elections, which as they say is a long time in politics. And we already have the southern states marching in protest against what they call unfair sharing of taxes between the central and state governments. Then, we also have farmer protests once again making its way to Delhi, demanding a legally guaranteed MSP (minimum support price) for their produce.

Will we have the central government caving in to their demands – given that farmers are a huge vote bank in India – the way they did with the massive farm loan waiver that was promised in the UP elections in 2017? If they do, it will be the biggest policy blunder, and not merely of recent times, but for decades and generations to come. Last time around, farmers from only three northern states (Punjab, Haryana and Western UP) were making such demands, when these farmers are mostly wealthy, living off exports of Basmati rice which they ought not to even be cultivating in some of these places and depleting water resources in the process thanks to politicians promising them free power!

As we look forward to the general elections 2024, I only hope India does not become a single-party democracy. It is not as if parties are not re-elected to power for consecutive terms, but there are limits in many countries especially on leadership. Angela Merkel-led CDU governed Germany for four consecutive terms, and managed relations with different and often difficult coalition partners as she steered the country through trying times, especially the 2008 Financial Crisis, the Euro Crisis of 2012, the Migration Crisis of 2015 and the start of the Covid pandemic in 2020. In India, at the state level, we have Naveen Patnaik-led BJD governing Odisha for several terms as a strong, regional party.

However, when a party returns to power and governs under the larger-than-life persona and personality-cult of a single leader, as is the case with Modi-led BJP, we ought to be clear-eyed about its policy decisions and the overall direction the country is taking. Until then, opportunism is the name of the game. Expect large-scale defections and horse-trading to continue. Who doesn’t like to back a winning horse?

By the way, whatever happened to our anti-defection laws? Or is this not a corrupt practice in India anymore?

The animated owl gif that forms the featured image and title of the Owleye column is by animatedimages.org and I am thankful to them.

This Owleye column first appeared on my blog on February 19, 2024.