Chance of all-out war with Lebanon slim to none

On June 12, the Zionist entity announced that it had assassinated Hezbollah leader Taleb Abdallah (Abu Taleb) and three other Resistance fighters who were with him. In response, senior Hezbollah official and head of the Resistance movement’s Executive Council, Sayed Hashem Safieddine stated the following:

“If the Israeli enemy is screaming and moaning from what it’s suffering in northern Palestine, let it prepare to cry and wail.”

Of course, Hezbollah kept its promise, as it always does, and its Resistance fighters launched the largest attack they have conducted against the Zionist entity, not only since October 8 last year, but since the 2006 War on Lebanon.

Understandably, many saw this major escalation as a sign of the conflict escalating into an all-out war between Hezbollah and the Zionist entity. However, this understanding could not be further from the reality of the situation, as all resistance factions made the objectives of this war clear months ago.

No all-out war without US approval & support

If the last nine months of the war have taught us anything, it’s that “Israel” and its so-called “army” are incapable of facing off against anyone without constant support, as well as direct military intervention from the United States and its Western allies. Despite Zionist claims to the contrary, this has proven to be the case not only in Gaza, but also in the case of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Operation True Promise, which achieved all its intended objectives (and much more), despite direct military intervention from the United States, the United Kingdom, their “allies” and complicit Arab regimes.

That being said, and despite Hezbollah’s retaliatory attack to the assassination of Abu Taleb being the largest since 2006, multiple media reports have stated that the Resistance group has only used approximately 5% of its weapons arsenal, and that these weapons are being used to assess and map out the enemy’s defenses. Something the Resistance group has done extremely well.

Furthermore, and according to a report published by the Alma Research and Education Center:

“If an all-out war breaks out with Israel, the quantity of weapons Hezbollah has will enable it to launch an average of about 3,000 launches (of all weapons) into Israeli territory every day, for at least the first 10 days. Assuming that such a war would continue for up to two months, Hezbollah will be able to continue to manage a very intense launching economy into Israeli territory, with an average of at least 1,000 launches a day. This does not include the number of launches and firing at IDF forces maneuvering on Lebanese soil.”

Interestingly enough, and as per an article? published by The Jerusalem Post on June 11, senior IOF officers disagree with this assessment, with the paper stating that:

“According to some top IDF officers, however, the estimates from Alma underplay Hezbollah’s capabilities. Military officials have expressed belief that Hezbollah could fire 6,000 to 8,000 times per day for a few days.”

Based on this, the first question that comes to mind is, how can an entity incapable of defending itself against three hundred missiles and drones, defend itself against such a mammoth attack by the Resistance i.e. an attack estimated to be at least twenty times larger?

The short answer is, it can’t, which is why the United States has made it very clear: The US is against any form of escalation with Lebanon. That’s why the United States instructed “Israel” not to respond to the Islamic Republic’s Operation True Promise, because any such escalation, and any such war, would leave the US no choice but to intervene to save the Zionist entity from inevitable destruction and turn all American interests in the region into legitimate targets for the Axis of Resistance.

'Israel' Lost on October 7

Despite the best effort of “Israel”, its Western allies, and their collective media apparatus to depict Operation Al-Aqsa Flood as a “terrorist attack”, and the Palestinian Resistance as a “horde of barbarians” who committed “mass slaughter and mass rape of civilians”, and “beheaded and burnt babies alive”, the reality is that the act of Resistance on October 7 last year was a highly coordinated and highly sophisticated military operation that dealt a huge military and intelligence blow to the Zionist entity and multiple military targets surrounding the Gaza Strip.

More importantly, this operation saw the defeat of the IOF’s infamous ‘Gaza Division,’ which is estimated to consist of between 10,000 and 12,000 “soldiers”. Despite being protected by heavily fortified military bases and equipped with advanced technology, this division was overcome by a couple of thousand Palestinian Resistance fighters.

Of course, it didn’t take long for the ‘October 7’ Israeli/Western narrative to completely fall apart, thanks to independent media reports, footage released by the Resistance, and eyewitness testimonies, which dismantled the propaganda campaign aimed at demonizing and delegitimizing the Palestinian Resistance in the eyes of the public. This situation demonstrates how it was the IOF that deliberately targeted its own “civilians” in a frenzy of fire and destruction, and that all claims of mass atrocities were a figment of the Zionists’ twisted imagination and a desperate attempt to portray themselves as victims.

As expected, “Israel” vowed revenge and announced that it would invade Gaza, “destroy Hamas” and “free the hostages”, however, the so-called “invincible army” did not commence its ground operation until October 27 (approx. three weeks later), and during that time, the Zionist regime deliberately targeted civilians and civilian infrastructure in a desperate act of revenge.

Now, any military analyst worth his/her salt can tell you that the IOF should have had the upper hand on October 7, especially when taking into consideration the size of its ‘Gaza Division’, the type of weaponry and technology at its disposal, as well as the fact that the division was held up in heavily fortified and technologically advanced military bases. However, despite all this, it suffered a catastrophic defeat at the hands of the Palestinian Resistance.

Based on this, “Israel” and even the United States must have known from day one that any ground operation in Gaza would be a complete disaster, because any “army” defeated despite all odds being in its favor, would not be able to achieve anything, especially now that it was the Resistance that was defending against a broken “army” that had suffered a catastrophic blow to its image and morale.

Therefore, anyone who thinks that this broken, exhausted, and humiliated “army,” which has been unable to achieve any of its objectives after nine months of fighting in Gaza, can somehow pose a threat to Lebanon and its Resistance is, for the lack of a better term, delusional.

Final Thoughts

While this opinion and analysis, which is based on publicly available information, states that the chance of an all-out Israeli aggression on Lebanon is slim to none, one cannot rule out the enemy’s arrogance and stupidity, which could either see the US greenlight a military operation against Hezbollah, or result in the Zionist entity dragging its US handlers into a war they are so desperately trying to avoid; a war they are certain they would lose and a war the Axis of Resistance is fully prepared for.

So, the questions one would need to ask here are, what would such a war look like in both scenarios? And how would the Axis of Resistance react to such an aggression?

When it comes to the first scenario (i.e. the US greenlighting the operation), this would be the least likely scenario out of the two (a little more on this later), and one of the first signs of this being the case would be the US minimizing its presence at all its military bases and installations in the region to the bare minimum, the withdrawal of the 5th Fleet from the region, which would result in the US withdrawing all of its naval vessels to at least 2,000 kilometers in order to ensure they are out of range of Iranian missiles Hezbollah may possess. Another sign would be increased arms shipments to “Israel” and the withdrawal of a considerable amount of IOF troops from Gaza.

Now, there are several reasons why I say that this scenario is the least likely, the first being the impact that NATO’s war on Russia and “Israel’s” war on Gaza have had on global weapons supplies, and an all-out war with Hezbollah and potentially the entire Axis of Resistance would not be sustainable.

The second is that the US is not the force it once used to be, something made quite evident by the disaster that is ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian’, and if the US and its “allies” can’t stop the Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) from launching attacks in the Red Sea, then they don’t stand a chance against Hezbollah and the rest of the Axis of Resistance.

The third and most important is that, if the US was ever going to greenlight an operation that would escalate into an all-out regional war, it would have done so after the Islamic Republic of Iran launched its retaliatory attack on April 13, as this would have allowed both the US and “Israel” an opportunity to try and restore deterrence superiority, but instead of doing so, the US ordered “Israel” to stand down, take the hit and not respond; a clear indication that the US is incapable of facing off with Iran or the Axis of Resistance.

As for the second scenario (i.e. “Israel” dragging the US into a war), this would be disastrous for the US, as it would be forced to intervene to protect the Zionist entity, which would turn all its bases, military installations, and its entire 5th Fleet into legitimate targets for not only Hezbollah, but the entire Axis of Resistance, as well as the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Finally, when it comes to how Hezbollah, the Axis of Resistance, and the Islamic Republic of Iran would respond to such an escalation, thousands of missiles would be launched daily toward the illegitimate entity by the entire Axis of Resistance. These missiles would not only target military installations but would also hit vital targets that would send “Israel” back to the Middle Ages. Both the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea would be completely under the mercy of the Axis of Resistance, and Hezbollah would enter occupied Palestine from South Lebanon, while the Iraqi resistance would enter occupied Palestine from Syria and the occupied Golan, and the Palestinian Resistance would launch an offensive from Gaza.

In short, if the Zionist entity makes the mistake of launching a war against Lebanon, this would easily escalate into a regional war, the last war the entity ever fights, because such a war would be the war of liberation.

The opinions mentioned in this article do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Al Mayadeen, but rather express the opinion of its writer exclusively.

This article was first published by Al Mayadeen: https://english.almayadeen.net/articles/blog/chance-of-all-out-war-with-lebanon-slim-to-none