The Challenges to a John Collins Trade

By: Layth Dahman

Ever since the Atlanta Hawks couldn't agree to a contract extension with John Collins on the December 21st rookie scale contract extension deadline, there have been rumors about Collins being disgruntled. Chris Kirschner and Sam Amick, of The Athletic, reported that Collins rejected a contract extension offer from the Hawks worth over $90 million. Collins is going to be a restricted free agent in the upcoming offseason and will seek a max contract. Since Collins is finishing up his fourth season, a max contract for him would be 25 percent of the salary cap worth about $27,285,000 per year if the salary cap stays at $109,140,000.

Even though Collins' production dropped by 4.6 points per game and 2.4 rebounds per game, and his field goal percentage dropped by 4 percent from the previous season, he is going to get a max contract based on his potential and production from last season. The reasons Collins’ production dropped for the Hawks are that he is still trying to fit in with the new additions and the Hawks have more depth than last season. He has fewer touches now and his usage rate has dropped from 22.4 percent to 19.7 percent. The Hawks have used him less in pick and roll situations with Clint Capela now on the team.

Collins is the ideal big in today`s NBA. This season, Collins is averaging 17 points per game and 7.7 rebounds per game. He is shooting an efficient field goal percentage of 54.3 which ranks 20th and a three-point percentage of 40.3 which ranks 60th. Collins can score inside, from mid-range, and three-point range. He can be used in pick and roll and pick and pop situations. Collins is one of the best floor-spacing bigs in the NBA. He makes a high percentage of threes and gets high quality looks from three off the pick and pop. Collins is a player who thrives in catch and shoot scenarios. This season he is shooting 65 percent on twos and 40.6 percent on threes when not taking any dribbles. Collins is a rim runner and runs well in transition. He also gives the Hawks extra possessions and second-chance points on the offensive end with his ability to rebound. Collins is averaging 2.2 offensive rebounds per game which ranks 30th leading to 3.2 second-chance points which ranks 17th.

Collins makes the Hawks a better defensive team. He moves well on the defensive end and makes it tough for opponents to score at the rim. This season, he has a defensive rating of 104.4 and the Hawks allow 4.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor. Collins has the ability to protect the rim by using his athleticism and length. This season he is averaging 1.1 blocks per game which ranks 26th.

The Hawks have many challenges to overcome if they are to trade John Collins this season. Collins' value is at his lowest now with him having a poor start to the season and they will be getting less value for him than if they re-sign him in the offseason. It is hard to make Collins a centerpiece of a trade with him having an expiring contract of $4,137,302. To match the salaries in a Collins trade, the Hawks will either need to acquire a young player still on his rookie-scale deal which is close to Collins' salary or attach some of the new players they acquired in free agency at the trade deadline. The Hawks have been decimated by injuries and didn't get a chance to see how their new free agent signings fit with the team. The new acquisitions of Bogdan Bogdanovi? (avulsion fracture in right knee) and Kris Dunn (arthroscopic ankle surgery) will miss extended time this season. Also, Rajon Rondo has only played 11 of 20 games because of knee soreness and Danilo Gallinari has played only 8 games of the 20 because of an ankle sprain. Lastly, teams have leverage over the Hawks in trade negotiations making it hard for the Hawks to get what they want in a Collins trade. Even though he is a restricted free agent, teams aren't going to give the Hawks what they want in a trade knowing that they have to give Collins a max contract at the end of the season. It is also a risk for teams to give up a lot of assets and have Collins take the qualifying offer this upcoming offseason if they are far off in negotiating a contract extension or if he doesn't like the new situation, he is in. If Collins takes the qualifying offer this offseason, he will become an unrestricted free agent in the 2022 offseason. 

The best option for the Hawks is to re-sign Collins this upcoming offseason to a max contract and see how he fits with the team at full strength. If it doesn't work out and he doesn't fit with the team, they could then trade him as a centerpiece of a trade. Collins having a max contract will give the Hawks more trade options in the future if he doesn't fit with the team.