The Challenges Facing the Biden Presidency:
1. Fixing the economy as he did in 2009 post the GFC . His USD 1.9 Trillion stimulus and having a steady experienced hand like Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at the wheel is a positive. Also the rebound has been strong from the June Quarter depths.
2. Generating employment and addressing the huge inequalities scarring society, with the K shaped recovery making the affluent classes more rich while creating wide swathes of poverty and impoverishment . The savings of US households have gone up by more than USD 1.2 trillion over the past 9 months, but there are 30 million households in very dire straits . 10 million jobs have been reduced from the US economy on a net basis since March 2020.
3. Regulation and anti monopolistic action on Big Tech and on their pervasive influence on formulating opinions, generating belief systems and influencing behaviour . Antitrust lawsuits , Sec 230 challenges and digital taxation disputes will need to be addressed.
4. Tax increases for the super rich and for corporations, undoing the Trump 2017 Tax cuts , creating fiscal space to take on infrastructure, renewables , health care , education spends . There may not be enough legislative support or political will to increase taxes in the first year. But the progressives within the party will push for this .
5. Containing China, which has emerged as a strong economic, geopolitical and globalisation leadership challenger . China's manufacturing and military might and aggression with neighbours presents a civilisational challenge to the free world and its leadership. China exerts a lot of control through its funding of various institutions within the US and its use of state power for creating narratives within free societies that undermine the democratic processes .
6.Strengthening the role of the US as the leader of the Free World against autocracies . The US has vacated its preeminent position as the leader of the Free world that it enjoyed post-Second World War on the world stage . Biden's experience will be required in mollifying insulted allies and rebuilding a democratic bloc that upholds the values of a free society based on the consent of the governed.
7. Global trade has reached back to pre Covid levels but the components have moved in favour of China and certain other economies that weathered the pandemic better . The big loser has been the US . The trade policies and righting the imbalances in balance of trade will be a key priority.
8. Trade agreements and regaining the US' position as a leader amongst equals in a multilateral system will need to be taken up. Europe is slated to impose fresh tariffs on March 23rd, 2021 unless some discussions are undertaken on the burning issues .
9. Better oversight of Financial sector firms, especially lightly regulated cryptocurrencies, SPACs , shadow banks, private equity and hedge funds with trillions in flows .Also stronger regulation and oversight of banks will be a demand , as the Trump administration removed many of the constraints brought in by the Obama administration post the GFC .
10. Helping the high employment, suffering small businesses, of which over 400,000 have closed since the first lockdown . Especially in hard hit services sectors like wellness, leisure, entertainment, dining and travel . Small businesses employ nearly half the private sector employees in the US . Biden has slotted direct support at the federal level and through state grants to this segment. This has to be rolled out expeditiously.
11. Student debt moratoriums will be extended and there is talk of one time paydowns of student loans to decrease the indebtedness amongst younger households. Rental and anti eviction relief to tenants will be another priority area .
12. The US vacated the Climate change leadership over the last 4 years .Managing the transition to a carbon neutral economy and meeting the rejoined Paris Accord commitments will take a lot of doing . Biden will seek to take the global leadership on climate friendly policies and actions but will have to balance that with costs and job losses.
13. Infrastructure rejuvenation and spending will be a key priority area for the Biden team . This can have a huge multiplier effect with a virtuous circle being set in motion. Funding this will be key . We expect early allocations to this task .
14. Iran , North Korea , Russia , Cuba , there are many Trump legacies that the Biden team will have to address . The experienced Sec of State and the new foreign policy team will have their work cut out on this front.
15. The biggest and immediate task will be to manage the Covid containment and vaccination rollout while keeping the economic recovery on steam. This will define the Biden term for the immediate future. Lots to do but President Biden has the team and acumen to manage these.
Head- Concurrent Audit - ADCB
3 年Very well compiled Ajay! Biden Foundation should use this as reference guide to plan.
President Sri Sri University,President WFEB, Court Member IISc, Co Chair ASSOCHAM National Education Council, FICCI H Education Council, Trustee, International Board Member, Independent Director,Leadership Coach,Advisor
3 年It’s a fantastic article ! Very insightful. Lays out the 1st 100 days plan