CFP Bulletin: Sudan airlifts halted, NATO underspending leaks, and more

This edition of the Canadian Foreign Policy Bulletin covers Canada's?terminated evacuations from Sudan, leaks over Ottawa's admission it will?'never' meet NATO spending targets?and more.?

First, here's the latest from?IPD:

IPD'S?ROUNDUP

The Ukraine War & European Security: How Durable Is America’s Strategy?

For the Quincy Institute,?Research Fellow Zachary Paikin argues that "a militarily reinforced transatlantic alliance, if paired with a relative loss of influence in much of the developing world, does not on balance represent a clear long–term win for the West when it comes to shaping the future of global order."

We're Hiring: Internship and Young Fellowship Opportunities

IPD is hiring multiple remote and paid internship positions to support our programming on the Middle East, Asia, and more. Learn more and apply for these opportunities by May 15. Also refer to the rolling applications ongoing for our newly-launched Young Fellowship program.

Ann Fitz-Gerald on CBC — The Roots of Sudan's Military Power Struggle

Speaking to CBC?on the roots of Sudan's military power struggle, Senior Fellow Ann Fitz-Gerald noted that "the country was under harsh economic sanctions for 20 years so it's leaving the economic power and the resources in the hands of two military generals neither of which want to fall off their podium and neither of which want to fall under the command of the other."

New Volume — Deconstructing the Changing Middle East Security Architecture

Read IPD's latest volume of policy papers from our most recent Middle East Strategy Forum including commentary from?Jeremy Wildeman of the?Human Rights Research and Education Centre at the University of Ottawa on 'Charting a New Path for Canadian Engagement with the Middle East'.

Baku Dialogues — ‘Appeasement’ and the Current Crisis: How ‘Munich’ Impoverishes Western Grand Strategy

Writing for Baku Dialogues, Senior Fellow Christopher Fettweise writes that "the appeasement analogy holds particular hypnotic power over America’s various foreign policy hawks, for whom everything one needs to know about diplomacy was taught at Munich in 1938."

TOP STORIES

Ottawa Halts Airlifts in Sudan as U.S. Commandos Evacuate Canadian Diplomats

As Sudan lapses into conflict between military leaders, Ottawa stopped its airlift evacuations from the capital Khartoum with Canadians still on the ground. The government previously shuttered its embassy and relocated diplomats to Nairobi when unrest first broke out.

U.S. special forces extraction?—?Leaving local staff, Canadian diplomats joined a U.S. Navy SEAL evacuation from the capital:?

• The New York Times?reported?that the CIA supported the midnight operation as six Canadian diplomats banded with several dozen American embassy staff and UN employees in a helicopter airlift from Djibouti.
• In a press release, Global Affairs Canada?stated?that it was "impossible to safeguard the safety and security of our staff in Khartoum" and that Ottawa will?"remain in close contact with our locally engaged staff" on the ground.
• Speaking from?Nairobi where Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly is in talks with humanitarian groups, current Ambassador to Sudan Philip Lupul?disclosed?that embassy staff were stranded for eight days in central Khartoum in an experience he believed was worse than Afghanistan.
• Former Canadian Ambassador to Sudan Nicholas Coghlan?lamented?the withdrawal and its effects on the ability to evacuate Canadians from the country, saying?"the symbolism?to the broader Sudanese population is also inescapable" as "we are all seen as bailing out."
• Coghlan?added?that "the signal that’s been sent there is [that]?there is a perception of people leaving the sinking ship" and "that’s how it looks, a sense of abandonment," noting that locally hired Sudanese working for the embassy "are typically left to their own devices."

Evacuation flights halted —?At the start of the week, the government cancelled airlifts with hundreds of Canadians still remaining in Sudan:?

• 12 days after fighting began, the first Canadian military flights took off with evacuees from Khartoum as?part?of the Canadian Armed Forces' newly-launched Operation SAVANNE, deploying nearly 200 troops and the HMCS Montreal.
• National Defence Minister Anita Anand has since?announced?that "because of the dangerous conditions and in concert with decisions made by our allies, no further Canadian flights are planned," with over 200 Canadians remaining in the country.
• Evacuation efforts instead have been?relocated?to American-led operations at Port Sudan, a 30-hour journey from the capital, as a Global Affairs Canada spokesperson stated that those remaining may decide to take the risk "based on their own circumstances."
• In Kenya, Minister Joly?voiced?support for Nairobi's offers to host talks between Sudan's warring factions, stating that "Canada is here to support Kenya and regional actors tackle this crisis. We will take concrete steps to help regional actors in their mediation efforts."

Public and parliamentary criticism?—?Scrutiny over the speed of Ottawa's response has grown amid reports of advanced intelligence on the ground:?

• National security sources?disclosed?that CAF personnel assigned to U.S. Africa Command were kept apprised for weeks of deteriorating conditions in Sudan and that pre-existing contingency plans for evacuations failed due to a "slow decision-making process."
• In an emergency Commons debate, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis?called?on Ottawa to "develop a strong Africa strategy that responds to its potential, recognizes the need for greater engagement" and "the efforts of hostile regimes to strengthen their engagement."
• New Democrat foreign affairs critic Heather McPherson?critiqued?the lack of legal protections for?local embassy staff and compared Sudan?to the withdrawals from Afghanistan and Ukraine, saying "we have a duty to these people, whether we admit it or not."
• NDP MP Laurel?Collins?questioned?the delayed evacuation relative to other states and the initial reliance on them to airlift Canadians, stating that "Canada says that it is an international leader, but now we are relying on other countries to evacuate citizens."

What commentators think —?Experts have pointed to the need for greater diplomatic engagement to resolve the crisis:?

• Awet Weldemichael, a Professor at Queen's University,?stated?that "the international community is rushing to save itself and leave the Sudanese people at the hands of these?warring sides... a combined UN-Afican Union intervention would help stave off a crisis."
• IPD Senior Fellow Ann Fitz-Gerald?argued?that "you need people on the ground putting pressure on those actors" and recalled how in previous peace talks "we were so close to achieving a civilian government."
• Khalid Mustafa Medani, Chair of African Studies at McGill University,?said?that "it really is important for Ottawa to understand the severity of this conflict as it threatens the entire region" and that "the only solution is a political settlement" which it may facilitate.

Canada's NATO Underspending in Focus After Pentagon Leaks

The fallout after leaked remarks by Trudeau that Ottawa would "never" meet NATO's 2%?spending target on defence has drawn out after initial leaks of classified Pentagon assessments by a U.S.?Air National Guardsman.

'Canada will never reach 2%' —?Documents reveal Justin Trudeau told NATO officials Canada would never reach alliance spending benchmarks:?

• The Pentagon assessment for the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff candidly?states?that "widespread defense shortfalls hinder Canadian capabilities while straining partner relationships and alliance contributions."
• It also notes concerns from Germany that Canada would be unable to meet its NATO commitments alongside those to Ukraine and discontent from Turkey over the Canadian military's "refusal" to support post-earthquake humanitarian relief efforts.
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg more recently?alluded?to underspending, warning?that "I expect allies to agree a more ambitious pledge, to regard 2 per cent of GDP for defence not as a ceiling but a floor, a minimum, that we should all meet."
• At the Montreal Council on?Foreign Relations, French Ambassador to Canada Michel Miraillet remarked on Canada's "weak defence effort" and how it is "forgetful of the memory of its past commitments... as in peacekeeping operations."'

'Embarrassing' —?Defence figures have taken issue with both Trudeau's admission and the government's longstanding defence policy:?

• Conservative defence critic James Bezan?observed?that "Canada has always been one that has depended too heavily upon other nations to provide that collective security," calling the leaked assessments "embarrassing."
• An open?letter?from the?Conference of Defence Associations Institute of dozens of former defence officials including past defence ministers?Peter MacKay and?David Pratt, ex-Ambassador to NATO?Yves Brodeur and more levelled criticism last month.
• Signatories stated that "issues of national security and defence are rarely treated as a priority other than in times of great peril. Years of restraint, cost cutting, downsizing and deferred investments, have meant that Canada’s defence capabilities have atrophied."
• The group further urged Trudeau's government to "act with a sense of urgency and heed the recent call of the NATO Secretary General to treat 2% of GDP as a floor rather than a ceiling for defence spending."

What commentators think —?Experts have noted how domestic political optics over defence spending are at odds with the unhappiness of allies:?

• David Perry,?President of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute,?stated?that "as a country, we kind of seem to be deluded into thinking that our allies can’t do their own math and make their own assessments" as opposed to Ottawa's "overly-rosy talking points."
• Stephen Saideman, Director of the Canadian Defence and Security Network, called the 2% target a "lousy metric"?as Canada's total spending has still risen and stated that raising the defence budget would not boost the Liberals' political capital.
• Paul T. Mitchell,?a Professor at the Canadian Forces College,?noted?"Canadian complacency assures that the prime minister’s admission to our allies won’t haunt him in any real domestic sense beyond a couple of bad news days. Nor is it likely to be an election issue."
• Andrew Leslie, a retired Lieutenant-General,?argued?"there's absolutely no doubt that the United States is getting increasingly irritated with our slow and reluctant ways of spending money on defence capability."

WHAT THEY'RE SAYING

While Canada has in the past tended to approach Africa from the perspective of humanitarianism and development, this is increasingly an outdated approach. Today’s Africa is home to some of the fastest growing economies in the world and wields significant political power within global affairs. Canada’s future partnership with the [African Union] must build on strategic areas of convergence, mutual interests, and shared values, drawing on Canada’s comparative advantages and the AU’s priorities.

—?Rita Abrahamsen, Director, Centre for International Policy Studies, University of Ottawa

I feel there is no unity of command or even centralized alliance for Arctic security between Western and allied partners...?Between NATO and NORAD, who both include areas of the Arctic as defensive responsibilities, there’s a lack of synchronization, no common objective or unity of effort

—?Wendy Tokach,?Centre for International & Defence Policy, Queen's University

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IMAGE CREDIT: Presidential Office of Ukraine?|?Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs?|?Canadian Army?|?Office of the Prime Minister