This edition of the Canadian Foreign Policy Bulletin covers Ottawa's?suspension?of Niger aid, ongoing debates on Canada's?Arctic defence efforts?within NATO,?and more.?
First, here's the latest from?IPD:
IPD'S?ROUNDUP
IPD will?host a virtual colloquium on?September 11 at 9:15 AM ET?to delve into the potential impact of an increasingly 'post-liberal'?international order on Canada’s national interests. Featuring speakers including Jean Charest, Vina Nadjibulla,?Louise Blais,?Jeremy Kinsman, and more,?registration for each session needs to be completed separately. REGISTER
For The Hill, Senior Fellow Andrew Latham writes that "Gulf states have sought to mitigate risks by opportunistically aligning with one external power on some issues and other external powers on others — all while exploiting the new economic and diplomatic opportunities presented by entry of new regional players."
Speaking to TRT World, IPD Senior Fellow Ann Fitz-Gerald noted that?"sanctions itself in my view are not going to represent a sufficient deterrent to stop" the civil conflict in Sudan and that "diplomacy needs to be deepened to include the allies of the warring factions" like the UAE and Egypt.
TOP STORIES
Facing Coup Government in Niger, Canada Announces Aid Cuts
The coup that took place in Niger late last month has continued to take Western governments, including Canada, by surprise. As the crisis has drawn out, donor partners including Ottawa have halted longstanding aid programs with Niamey.
Direct aid suspended?— Global Affairs Canada?announced?that it would suspend all direct development assistance to the Government of Niger:
- “Canada reiterates its solidarity with the people of Niger... In the current context, it would be impossible to maintain direct support to the Government of Niger while ensuring an effective and intentional use of funds.”
- On the other hand, GAC noted that “Canadian health, education, economic and gender equality assistance to the poorest and most vulnerable populations will continue.”
- Since October 2020, Canada has had a bilateral development cooperation program with Niger, which was expected to reach an annual budget of $10 million per year by 2026. The program disbursed $2.71 million in 2021-22.
- Over the past?twenty?years, Canada has provided over $520 million in total international assistance to Niger. In 2021, Canada’s total international assistance to Niger was $59.33 million, of which $8.7 million was for humanitarian assistance.
- Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly stated that Canada supports the mediation efforts spearheaded by the Economic Community of West African States, demanding that "the democratically elected government must be reinstated immediately."
Military matters?— The future of Western military partnerships in Niger is uncertain:
- The coup has put into question the military assistance that?Canada?and other countries have long provided to Niger in the joint fight against al Qaeda- and IS-linked extremists in the Sahel region.
- The Canadian government has not commented on the fate of?Operation Naberius, its military training mission which sends about 50 CAF members to Niger per year relative to?a 2,000 U.S.?and 1,500 French-troop presence.
- Bruno Charbonneau, Director of the Centre on Security and Crisis Governance at the Royal Military College Saint-Jean,?argued?“there's a limit to what we can do... those secure assistance programs are usually limited to tactical levels.”
- “A military coup is obviously about something else. It's about the public institutions, it's about the state institution, it's about civilian-military relationships, civilian control of the military and security forces. And those things are usually addressed through other programs.”
What commentators think —?Debate over whether the coup represents a?failure of Canadian and Western policies is ongoing:
- Sylvie Bérubé, a federal?MP working to repatriate Canadians in the country,?stated?that “many of us are working to ensure the survival of these people. We also know that the Canadian government did not have an exact plan for certain coups d'état like this one.”
- Aurel Braun, Professor at the University of Toronto,?told?CTV News that Canada's policy in Niger, while well intended, "clearly has not achieved the desired results because a democratically elected government was overthrown."
- Olawale Ismail, Senior Lecturer at the African Leadership Centre at?King's College London,?noted?that "there is a wave of anti-French feelings"?as "rank-and-file of military officers share some of these frustrations... about France's?role in counter-terrorism in the region."
Canada Reevaluates Defence Spending Amid Ongoing Debates on Canada's Arctic Strategy
With NATO gaining two new Arctic members in the form of Sweden and Finland, Canada may need to step up its game in the High North alongside its NATO allies. At the same time, there are signs that spending fatigue could be hitting Ottawa’s defence coffers as economic questions take the spotlight in domestic politics.?
The Arctic gets the cold shoulder?— Canada and its NATO allies on the northern flank have faced challenges and criticism:
- With Sweden?and Finland’s?accession, calls for Denmark, Norway, and Canada to invest and cooperate more closely?on Arctic security to counter Russia’ have?grown with former U.S. Navy Admiral James Stavridis arguing for "regular, large-scale combat exercises."
- China's declaration of?itself as a 'Near Arctic State' has drawn attention as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg?warned?last year in a visit to Canada that Chinese-Russian Arctic cooperation "challenges our values and our interests."?
- Canada in particular maintains?an outdated icebreaker fleet among most other equipment with a recent?Senate report?highlighting that?Ottawa’s defence capabilities are stretched painfully thin?especially in light if Canada's?Indo-Pacific shift.
- Construction this month, however, has begun?on the first Canadian Coast Guard Arctic and offshore?patrol ship, of which two are expected to be complete in 2026 for fisheries enforcement,?search and rescue operations as well as?icebreaking.
Defence spending fatigue?— With Anita Anand out?and Bill Blair in as Defence Minister, Ottawa may be signaling an inward shift in priorities:
- According to?Philip Lagassé, Associate Professor and Barton Chair at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, "the recent willingness to invest heavily in the military may be fading… Political will has been sporadic for about forty years."
- He added that this has resulted in?"a military that gets the job done and doesn’t fail — at least from a political perspective — but that suffers from structural weaknesses that require major investments to address.”
- While defence spending has significantly increased since 2017 under the Trudeau government, the next election will likely focus more on the economy and fiscal management in general, be it from Liberals or Conservatives —?meaning military spending could take a big cut.
- Minister Anand, now in charge of federal budgeting, has?initiated?a review to cut over $15 billion in government spending over?the next five years but said it "will not impact direct benefits and service delivery to...?the Canadian Armed Forces."
- Ipsos polling?suggests that Russia and China are pushing Canadians on defence with over half of Canadians believing CAF to be out-of-date and in need of upgrades and?three-quarters believing?Ottawa should increase its defence spending to protect Canadian interests.
What commentators think?— Experts are thinking hard about what both national security and defence capability mean in a Canadian context:
- Scott Taylor, Editor of L’Esprit Magazine,?suggested?that “Canada punched above its weight" in Afghanistan and its Latvian battle group?as "we are delivering real capability to the NATO alliance… that should count for more than meeting an arbitrary percentage of our GDP.
- Lloyd Axworthy, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Allan Rock, former Ambassador to the UN,?consider?spending more in the High North to be a stone that can kill two birds as?“a?quarter-century ago, Canada took the diplomatic lead in establishing the Arctic Council."
- "The time has come for Canada to undertake a similar effort aimed at achieving Arctic security co-operation under NATO auspices. By doing so, we would not only meet our NATO spending commitments, but also enhance our national security.”
- Eric Van Rythoven, an instructor at?Carleton University,?argued?that?“if politicians can’t speak to how Canadians actually feel and experience insecurity, citizens won’t listen to them on defence and security issues."
WHAT THEY'RE SAYING
This is effectively a question of what model of military we want to develop: one like that of Australia — which is sharp, powerful, domestically fit for purpose, but smaller in size — or one more similar to that which Poland is building — a robust military with significant mass of personnel and equipment prepared for a major conventional conflict. There are benefits to both approaches, and neither is inherently superior; the best approach is based on what we want our military to be able to achieve.
—?Peter MacKay, Former Minister of National Defence
Despite repeated warnings from within the military that Canada lacks the capabilities to contest Moscow’s remilitarization of the Arctic, Ottawa has engaged in fanciful discussions of an Indo-Pacific strategy that leaves the United States and NATO vulnerable in the Western Hemisphere. These challenges require serious solutions across the alliance, beginning with an integrated NATO arctic strategy that builds upon the work done by individual members.
—?Alexander B. Gray, Senior Fellow, American Foreign Policy Council
Deeply concerned foreigners cannot rely complacently, as they did in 2016, on Americans to do the right thing [in its next election]. Should Trump somehow win, the world will change, and with it, the world’s estimate of America and Americans. On the other hand, should Americans refute Trump’s divisive message, the revalidation of American democratic and judicial institutions will project their exemplary value to an expectant but hesitant world. For Canadians, popular preference remains very much for Biden’s America.?
—?Jeremy Kinsman, Former Ambassador to the European Union
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