This edition of the Canadian Foreign Policy Bulletin covers the appointment of Ottawa's new ambassador to Kyiv amid security negotiations, Trudeau in Southeast Asia?to attend ASEAN meetings,?and more.?
First, here's the latest from?IPD:
IPD'S?ROUNDUP
IPD will?host a virtual colloquium on?September 11 at 9:15 AM ET?to delve into the potential impact of an increasingly 'post-liberal'?international order on Canada’s national interests. Featuring speakers including Jean Charest, Vina Nadjibulla,?Louise Blais,?Jeremy Kinsman, and more,?registration for each session needs to be completed separately. CLICK HERE TO REGISTER
Writing for La Presse (in French), Advisor Jocelyn Coulon argues that in light of its recent expansion, "the BRICS may differ from one another on certain international issues, but they will remain united in their fundamental desire to restructure the international order."
TOP STORIES
New Ambassador in Kyiv Amid New Security Talks
Ottawa and Kyiv continue to deepen their ties as the war toils on with new discussions on?how to sell a Ukrainian-drafted peace plan, post-war reconstruction, and a new long-term security agreement amid Canada's newest diplomatic appointment in Ukraine.
Rallying support for peace formula — Ukraine has expressed hope for Canada's aid in selling Kyiv’s peace plan to fence-sitters around the world:
- Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that "Canada has the diplomatic muscle to achieve the task of gathering a broad coalition in support of the peace formula,” also asking for further military funding beyond 2024, including anti-landmine support.
- Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said?“it is essential that we strengthen and rebuild Ukraine to make sure that Russia will not try to invade again… We will be supporting the peace plan. We will bring also — through our diplomatic corps in all the capitals we're present in — our way to bring many countries along.”
- Many countries have remained neutral?on Moscow’s invasion including G20 President India, which has not invited Ukraine to the leader’s summit unlike last year, with?G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant stating that “the Russia-Ukraine war is not our creation, or that of developing or emerging countries. It is not a priority for us.”
- Indian?Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said “keep the G20 and the Ukraine war separate. Our complaint is that the G20 is an economic platform. By ignoring this as the objective of the G20, the focus is diverted elsewhere… focus should be on development.”
- Prime Minister Trudeau expressed disappointment over Ukraine’s G20 exclusion, telling President Volodymyr Zelenskky in a phone call that he was “disappointed that you won't be included,” adding that “we will be speaking up strongly for you.”
A new security agreement?— Officials from Canada and Ukraine have begun negotiations for new long-term bilateral security commitments:
- Global Affairs Canada stated that “discussions will focus on pairing Canadian capabilities with Ukrainian needs, notably ensuring a sustainable force to defend Ukraine from Russian aggression now and in the future and strengthening Ukraine’s economic stability.”
- “Our two countries will discuss further technical and financial support for Ukraine’s immediate needs as well as to implement the good governance necessary to advance Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations."
- This support includes assistance for "continued implementation of law enforcement, judiciary, anti-corruption, corporate governance, economic, security sector, and state management reforms.”
- Canadian efforts as part of a coalition of countries training Ukrainian pilots in the UK are also?ongoing as National Defence?spokesperson Andrée-Anne Poulin pointed to work with allies to develop a comprehensive training program.
New top diplomat in Kyiv? — Ottawa has appointed Natalka Cmoc as Canada’s new Ambassador to Ukraine, replacing Larisa Galadza:
- In an official profile, Global Affairs Canada described Cmoc as a fluent Ukrainian speaker and a career Ukraine expert?who worked previously on the creation of Operation UNIFIER, the Canadian military's training and capacity-building mission for Ukraine.
- Cmoc said Canada wants to ramp up?the green transition as well as anti-corruption projects including?training judges and forensic auditors, saying "they recognize this is a very important reform; they know that this is one of the stipulations for EU accession."
- In a joint statement on?Ukraine’s Independence Day, Joly joined other ministers in taking stock of Ottawa's support for Kyiv, touting that "since 2022, Canada has committed over $8.9 billion in support for Ukraine. That includes more than $1.8 billion in military assistance."
What commentators think? — Observers have been pessimistic about the near-term outlook for a resolution to the conflict amid weapons deliveries:
- Dominique Arel, Chair of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa, argued?against the notion of a possible ceasefire, stating that “Russia has never respected the ceasefires… there will be no ceasefire. Russia will continue to send missiles.”
- Scott Taylor, editor of Esprit de Corps magazine, suggested that "it appears that neither Russia nor the NATO-supplied and -trained Armed Forces of Ukraine have the capability to deliver a heavy enough knock-out blow that would end this war any time soon."
- Anne Delorme, Executive Director of Humanity and Inclusion Canada, a conflict zone aid group, encouraged Ottawa to stick to its commitments on limiting cluster munitions and "use diplomacy to encourage the United States and other countries" to do the same.
Trudeau in the Indo-Pacific as New Warships Deployed
Canada seems to be making good on its Indo-Pacific strategy by focusing on maritime security and trade as Trudeau undertakes a visit to attend?the ASEAN summit in Indonesia, coinciding with new naval deployments.?
Taking the plunge? — Canada has deployed two maritime vessels to the region to enhance its military presence:
- Two ships, HMCS Ottawa and Vancouver, departed from Esquimalt, B.C. last month?for the Indo-Pacific — the second and third Royal Canadian Navy warships to head to the Indo-Pacific this year — fulfilling a pledge made in Canada's Indo-Pacific Strategy.
- The Department of National Defence stated?that “Canada is committed to reinforcing its military presence in the region – and this deployment will increase, diversify, and sustain Canada’s military footprint in support of a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific."
- "HMCS Ottawa will focus on Southeast Asia, while HMCS Vancouver will focus on Northeast Asia. During its deployment, HMCS Vancouver will also contribute to the monitoring of the United Nations sanctions against North Korea, through Op NEON.”
- Vice-Admiral Angus Topshee, Commander of the Royal Canadian Navy, declared that the two ships would sail through the Taiwan Strait "whenever it makes sense to do so."
Indo-Pacific Trade Representative — Trudeau has arrived in the region to attend ASEAN's annual summit and appointed a new special trade envoy:
- In a press release, the Prime Minister’s Office said that ASEAN "is at the heart of the Indo-Pacific region and Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy" as Trudeau will "reinforce Canada’s support for ASEAN and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific."
- It went on to say that Trudeau will also be participating in an ASEAN-Canada Summit to officially?launch the ASEAN-Canada Strategic Partnership in addition to a bilateral meeting?with Indonesian President?Joko Widodo.
- In Singapore, Trudeau will meet his counterpart Lee Hsien Loong and private sector leaders?with a focus on "promoting Canadian exports and positioning Canada as a destination of choice for investment opportunities."
- Trudeau has since appointed Paul Thoppil as Canada's first Indo-Pacific Trade Representative that will "facilitate and promote trade, investment, and supply chain resilience" and announced trade missions to?Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam.
- Canada's newly-established Indo-Pacific special envoy Ian McKay is accompanying Trudeau on his itinerary, with one anonymous official noting that "we are aware of the criticism of Canada as a sometimes friend that sometimes shows up and then disappears. Not anymore."
What commentators think?— Experts have underscored the need for Ottawa to work harder to present its value in the region:
- Bessma Momani, Senior Fellow at CIGI, stated that for Canada, “there's a strong feeling in the Indo-Pacific of 'Look, you need us more than we need you, so stop moralizing and preaching to us.’ It's not the same environment that you had 10 years ago where Trudeau could go to these places and be on his high horse."
- Wayne Farmer, President of the Canada-ASEAN Business Council, suggested that “ASEAN believes engagement with Canada is much deeper than it perhaps used to be. We are trading more, we're engaging more, and it's a good thing to see for us. It's another little incremental step in the right direction.”
- Goldy Hyder, CEO of the Business Council of Canada, noted that ”these regions are running significant coal as their source of power, and to me the best thing Canada can do to help bring down global emissions is to get countries that are on coal to transition into these other forms of energy.”
WHAT THEY'RE SAYING
Greater security in the Indo-Pacific can only be forged by years of consistent collaboration with military and defence partners to build interoperability and trust between like-minded nations. Canada’s expanded defence presence in the region demonstrates that we can be counted on to be an engaged and reliable partner in the Indo-Pacific now, and in the years to come.
—?Gen. Wayne Eyre, Chief of the Defence Staff
Current geopolitics create headwinds for India’s [G20] Summit, including trade restrictions, regional security tensions and continuing war in Ukraine. And there are signs that both the G7 and a recently expanded BRICS group are increasingly pursuing their own global agendas disconnected from the G20. It will be challenging for this Summit to deliver collective G20 actions on priorities like resilient growth, green development and multilateral reform in the current context. But the key issue in 2023 is India itself, and the actions it takes to chart its place in the world.
— Paul Samson, President,?Centre for International Governance Innovation
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