CFP Bulletin: Indo-Pacific strategy unveiled, Trudeau in ASEAN & more

This week's edition of the Canadian Foreign Policy Bulletin covers Canada's newly-announced?Indo-Pacific strategy, Trudeau's summit?tour of Southeast Asia, and more.

First, here's the latest from?IPD:

IPD?Roundup

Canada & China in an Age of Great Power Rivalry: Addressing Challenges, Resetting the Relationship

Read IPD's newly-published collected works from its China Strategy Project edited by Research Fellow Zachary Paikin, featuring a foreword from Senator Yuen Pau Woo, and contributions from Jeremy Paltiel, Yanling Wang, Xiaobei Chen, Wenran Jiang, and Paul Evans.

New Senior Fellow: Andrew Latham

The Institute for Peace & Diplomacy (IPD) is pleased to announce the addition of Andrew Latham as a new Senior Fellow. Dr. Latham is a professor of international relations and political theory at Macalester College in Saint Paul, Minnesota. He is also a non-resident fellow at Defense Priorities, a Washington DC-based think tank, and a regular opinion contributor at The Hill.

Why Canada Needs Dialogue With China, Especially When We Disagree

In the days before the Indo-Pacific strategy's release, Sarah Kutulakos, Executive Director and COO of the Canada China Business Council, authored a contribution to IPD's project on Canada’s Interests in a Shifting Order. She suggests that "speaking out on issues is important, but even more important is speaking?with?China on these issues."

Responsible Statecraft: What Accounts for This Sharp Canadian Shift Against China?

Senior Fellow Andrew Latham writes for Responsible Statecraft that as Canada releases its Indo-Pacific,?it "heavily favors opposition to China, even if that is bound to be tempered for some time yet by economic considerations?and threats of retaliation on Beijing’s part."

Top Stories

Joly unveils Canada's long-awaited Indo-Pacific strategy

In a Vancouver press conference alongside trade minister Mary Ng, international development minister Harjit Sajjan, public safety minister Marco Mendicino, and fisheries minister Joyce Murray, foreign affairs minister?Mélanie Joly announced Canada's "generational" strategy for the Indo-Pacific.

Five pillars —?The lengthy plan?outlines ?'interconnected strategic objectives' that frame engagement over the next decade:

• These include?peace and security, trade and supply chain resiliency, people-to-people ties,?green and sustainable development, and a more proactive diplomatic profile and footprint in the region.
• In a?backgrounder ?on the strategy's financial commitments, Ottawa promised $2.3 billion in largely new financing to fund the plan's initiatives until 2027, when a review will "return with an update that will cover initiatives and resources for years 2027-2032."
• The most significant line items in the strategy's budget include $492.9 million for the Canadian Armed Forces' presence in the region as well as?$750 million for FinDev Canada to support "high-quality" infrastructure in line with the G7 Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment.
• On economic engagement, the strategy placed an emphasis on opening Southeast Asian markets, diversifying supply chains,?achieving an Early Progress Trade Agreement with India as a "critical partner," and reinvigorating?"Team Canada" trade missions deployed to the region.
• Diplomatically, the plan committed to appoint a special envoy to the Indo-Pacific, establish a new post to liaise with the U.S. in Hawaii, implement the Strategic Partnership with ASEAN, and add China analysts to missions at the UN, EU, and NATO.

A sharper China policy?—?Reportedly?unmentioned in past drafts, the final document settles on labelling Bejing a "disruptive global power":

• Critiquing China for seeking "a more permissive environment for interests and values that increasingly depart from ours," the strategy highlighted the South China Sea, coercion, and more,?vowing?to "work closely with its partners to face the complex realities of China’s global impact."
• The plan noted Canada "must remain in dialogue with those with whom we do not see eye-to-eye," spelling out climate change and nuclear proliferation as collective concerns while recognizing that "China’s economy offers significant opportunities for Canadian exporters."
• Interviewed by La Presse, Joly?said ?that "most of the Indo-Pacific strategies of our allies do not include China," saying she "decided to make it into a strategy, because you can't talk about the Indo-Pacific without talking about China."
• She added that she has spoken of?Canada's "re-engagement framework" with Beijing in her meetings with Chinese?counterpart Wang Yi, stating "he doesn't necessarily agree, but I told him that at least it's transparent."

Ministers defend plans —?Cabinet members have taken to the media circuit to elaborate on the announced initiatives, tone, and timelines:

• Joly?underlined ?one orientation of the strategy to CBC, saying "we're introducing this new concept which is the Northern Pacific" that is about?"creating a stronger relationship with Japan and Korea" in a manner that she compared to NATO and?"investing in more military assets."
• Minister Anand echoed these shifts in a press conference,?noting ?funds for a new frigate to augment annual naval deployments to the region, capacity-building in Southeast Asia, as well as intelligence capabilities to "enable close collaboration with our?Five Eyes and regional partners."?
• Speaking to CTV on China, Joly?stated ?that "we are calling a spade a spade" and reiterated that "we will compete with China when we ought and we will cooperate with them when we must" and that "the idea is to make sure the frame is clear."

Economic stakeholders react —?The business community was largely optimistic about the strategy's promises and understandings?but sought specifics:

• Carlo Dade, Director of the Trade & Investment Centre?at the Canada West Foundation,?cautioned ?that "for this strategy to be taken seriously, there has to be indication that they will outlast changes in government" and that Ottawa's reputation is that is "we show up and disappear."
• Goldy Hyder, President of the?Business Council of Canada, said that?in China, "business is in the business of managing risks" and that "we are glad that nobody said, ‘Don’t do businesses in an x, y or z country.’ I think that would have been counterproductive and harmful."
• Separately, Hyder?called ?for "an express commitment by the government to provide secure supplies of Canadian LNG to our allies in the region along with specific details of how it will expedite the approval of Pacific-coast energy export infrastructure" given energy security concerns.
• Meredith Lilly, a former trade adviser to Stephen Harper,?observed ?that there was "no mention of friendshoring" and that “if anything, the strategy offers a rebuke, proposing greater diversification and doubling down on adherence to rules as resilient responses to protectionism."

What commentators think —?Scholars both welcomed the announcement and noted the room to be more regionally sensitive as the U.S. and China differed:

• Roland Paris, a former senior advisor to Justin Trudeau,?termed ?it "the most substantive strategic document on foreign policy that we've seen from any Canadian government for a long time" but asked for government?"reporting on whether it's meeting specific targets."
• Shaun Narine, a professor at St. Thomas University, suggested it appears to be "going in with our presumptions about what the regional state should be, about what it is that we expect of them" and that "we're not listening to what they want. We're not actually considering what their interests are."
• Stéphanie Martel, a Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation,?noted ?Ottawa's language on?its Strategic Partnership with ASEAN was at times inconsistent with what ASEAN was referencing, saying "we should also invest in improving our understanding of how ASEAN works."
• U.S. Ambassador to Canada David Cohen was quick to issue a statement,?calling ?Ottawa "one of the United States’s most important friends and allies, to advance our countries’ shared priorities in the Indo-Pacific region."
• Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian?said ?the strategy was "dominated by ideological bias," noting past Canadian remarks on how it "would like to improve and grow relations" but that it "needs to honor its words, show sincerity and goodwill, [and] seek common ground while reserving differences."

From Bali to Bangkok, Trudeau seeks to upgrade ASEAN ties

Prime Minister Trudeau followed a crowded itinerary in his most recent visit to Southeast Asia for the G20 leadership summit in Indonesia, APEC meetings in Thailand, and the annual ASEAN summit in Cambodia. Travelling on the eve of the Indo-Pacific Strategy's release, Trudeau previewed many of Ottawa's new promises to engage the region.

A 'Strategic Partnership' —?In Phnom Penh, Trudeau attended as a guest of Cambodia, this year's ASEAN Chair:

• In a press?readout , the Prime Minister's Office remarked on the commemorative summit celebrating 45 years of ties as well as the importance and symbolism of the agreement to enter a Canada-ASEAN Strategic Partnership.
• The visit, Trudeau's first to the country, was also a moment for the PM to pre-emptively?announce ?many of the ASEAN initiatives that would be contained in the subsequently-announced Indo-Pacific Strategy, including $100 million in development assistance.
• In a joint statement, the two sides?agreed ?to "welcome Canada’s support for ASEAN-led mechanisms and note with appreciation its interest in joining" the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus format.
• It added that both would "promote maritime security and safety, freedom of navigation and overflight, unimpeded commerce, mutual trust and confidence, the exercise of self-restraint, the non-use of force or the threat to use force, and the resolution of disputes by peaceful means."

Head-to-head in ASEAN?—?Trudeau met many of his regional counterparts as well as allies over the course of his mission:

• With Prime Minister Hun Sen of Cambodia, Trudeau?raised ?the issue of Ukraine and praised "Cambodia's position on the crisis" as the two discussed demining efforts and the ASEAN-Canada free trade agreement under negotiation.
• In Bali, Canada?announced ?allocating $550 million of existing funding for the Just Energy Transition Partnership for Indonesia alongside G7 leaders and similar efforts on coal-phaseout initiatives through its?Climate Investment Funds’ Accelerating Coal Transition Program.
• Meeting U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in Bangkok, Trudeau?reviewed ?the implementation of the Roadmap for a Renewed U.S.-Canada Partnership and shared Ottawa's Indo-Pacific Strategy while discussing cooperation on supply chains, North Korea, Ukraine, and Iran.
• Also in Thailand, APEC host Prime Minister?Prayut Chan-o-cha held?discussions ?with Trudeau on Canada's unfinalized FTA with ASEAN as well as the impact of the Ukraine war on food security and Canadian support for the bloc's efforts to bring an end to the crisis in Myanmar.

What commentators think?—?Trudeau's engagements faced scrutiny as many pointed to the need to acknowledge perspectives within ASEAN:

• Jeff Nankivell, President of the Asia Pacific Foundation,?observed ?that "we are considered as being inconstant in terms of our attention" and that regional leaders say "Canada has come and gone over the years. We don’t see a sustained commitment."
• Sheila Copps, former Deputy Prime Minister,?remarked ?on Trudeau's exchanges with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Indonesia, arguing that "the more he travels, the more negative media is generated" and that the Prime Minister's Office needs to bear greater responsibility.
• Deanna Horton, former Ambassador to Vietnam,?commented ?that "the key to engaging with Asia for the United States—and by extension for Canada as well—is to acknowledge that Asian countries do not wish to choose" and?"recognizing that economic ties with China are vital to others."

What They're Saying

[Justin Trudeau]?is trying to signal to partners in the region that this will now be the focus of his attention. Canada has been engaged, but in an erratic way in this part of the world and in the Indo-Pacific that just doesn’t work. It’s not about coming; it’s about staying and engaging in a very sustained way...?You can’t just say, ‘We’re trustworthy and reliable.’ You have to earn it. It’s pretty clear about how you earn it. You come, you stay, you engage, and you stay and engage over the long term.

—?Janice Stein ,?Co-chair of the Indo-Pacific Advisory Committee

Canada’s strategy needs to go much further. Failure to act now could not only have dire consequences for our national security but also erode our long-term economic competitiveness.?We need better policy tools, starting with the development of a public list of sensitive technologies critical to our competitiveness and national security.?

—?Shawn Barber , former Director General & Head, Task Force on Economic Security, Public Safety Canada

The tone on the China section of the strategy is not nuanced … the strategy appears to acknowledge that this approach could increase the risk of economic disputes between the two countries. The strategy also makes it clear that Canada’s approach to China will be nested within the Indo-Pacific strategy as a whole. This raises interesting questions about how policies on ‘friendshoring’ might evolve in the region. Is it clear which countries would be ‘friendly’ enough? The answer is likely to be a broader set of countries rather than a narrower one.

—?Paul Samson , President, Centre for International Governance Innovation

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IMAGE CREDIT:?G20 INDONESIA ?|?MARY NG ?|?JUSTIN TRUDEAU