CFP Bulletin: Diplomatic Expulsions With India, Libya Flood Aid and More

This edition of the Canadian Foreign Policy Bulletin covers diplomatic expulsions with India after Ottawa accused New Delhi of an extrajudicial killing on Canadian soil, Canada's?assistance in post-flood Libya,?and more.?

First, here's the latest from?IPD:

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Canada Has Lost Its Purpose in Foreign Relations. It’s Time for a Review

Writing as part of IPD's project 'Canada’s Interests in a Shifting Order' in collaboration with Policy Options magazine, project co-chair Walter Kemp?writes that "a clearer set of national interests would put Canada in a stronger position with the United States and enable it to define coherent and consistent policies in relation to China, Russia, and the European Union, rather than following events or external pressures."

Canada Should Look North to Refocus Foreign Policy — and Regain Lost Middle-Power Status

Writing as part of IPD's project 'Canada’s Interests in a Shifting Order' in collaboration with Policy Options magazine, project director and Senior Fellow Zachary Paikin argues that "the?two pillars that have underpinned Canadian foreign policy since the end of the Second World War – reliance on multilateralism and a strong relationship with the United States – are no longer mutually reinforcing."

Canada’s Core National Interests Will Have To Lie in North America

Writing as part of IPD's project 'Canada’s Interests in a Shifting Order' in collaboration with Policy Options magazine, Senior Fellow Andrew Latham suggests that "Ottawa has an interest in maintaining a stable balance of power within the institutional space of global governance. And that will necessarily involve Canada adopting a very different role than that of 'helpful fixer'."

TOP STORIES

Canada, India Expel Diplomats After Alleged Political Assassination

After flying back from the G20 Summit in New Delhi and meeting his counterpart Narendra Modi, Prime Minister Trudeau went public on the floor of the House of Commons with investigations into India's role in assassinating Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian who had advocated for Khalistani separatism.

Persona non grata?— Foreign Minister?Mélanie Joly announced a top Indian diplomat's expulsion as the PM aired the accusations publicly:

• "Canadian security agencies have been actively pursuing credible allegations of a potential link between agents of the Government of India and the killing of a Canadian citizen... Any involvement of a foreign government in the killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil is an unacceptable violation of our sovereignty."
• Joly disclosed that?Pavan Kumar Rai, the head of India's intelligence agency in the embassy in Ottawa was ordered to leave, stating that the act was "completely unacceptable" and that Canada would "not tolerate any form of foreign interference."
• New Delhi designated Nijjar, a Sikh Canadian leader among the diaspora in British Columbia, as a terrorist in?2020 and placed a bounty on his name before he was gunned down in front of the Guru Nanak Sikh Gurdwara in June.
• India has since ordered the departure of Canadian diplomat?Olivier Sylvestre from the country on the basis of its "growing concern at the interference of Canadian diplomats in our internal matters and their involvement in anti-India activities."
• Richard Fadden,?former Director of CSIS, called on Ottawa to suspend intelligence cooperation with India and prepare for a long freeze in bilateral relations, adding "we need to monitor more carefully people who are coming into this country."

Tense G20 conversation?— Trudeau first raised the accusations with Modi in India, whose government has rebuffed the claims:

• India's Ministry of External Affairs rejected the allegations as "absurd and motivated," noting that Trudeau's confrontation with Modi over the issue at the G20 was "completely rejected," calling on Canada to act "against all anti-India elements operating from their soil."
• "Such unsubstantiated allegations seek to shift the focus from Khalistani terrorists and extremists, who have been provided shelter in Canada... The inaction of the Canadian Government on this matter has been a long-standing and continuing concern."
• In its initial readout of their bilateral meeting before the claims came to light, India stated that Modi "conveyed our strong concerns about continuing anti-India activities of extremist elements in Canada. They are promoting secessionism and inciting violence."?
• "It is essential for the two countries to cooperate in dealing with such threats. Prime Minister [Modi] also mentioned that a relationship based on mutual respect and trust is essential for the progress of India-Canada relationship."
• India has since issued a travel advisory to its nationals and students in Canada "in view of growing anti-India activities and politically-condoned hate crimes" and "given?the deteriorating security environment in Canada."

Allies decline condemnation?— Trudeau had informed U.S. French, and UK counterparts:

• Anonymous officials disclosed that Ottawa asked the U.S. and others to join a public condemnation which was subsequently refused, a claim denied by Global Affairs Canada which said it will?"continue to keep our allies, including at the officials level, apprised."
• Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, stated that "the U.S. needs to walk a diplomatic tightrope in that Canada is an ally and neighbor while India is a key strategic partner... it values, in a big way, its relationship with India."
• A senior Canadian official reported to Reuters that both Ottawa and Washington had been cooperating on the intelligence behind Nijjar's killing, saying "we've been working with the U.S. very closely, including on the public disclosure yesterday."
• Though acknowledging the allegations as "serious," a?spokesperson for UK PM Sunak said that London's trade talks with India "will continue as before" as "these are negotiations about a trade deal, and we're not looking to conflate them with other issues."
• A spokesperson for Australian?Foreign Minister Penny Wong stated that Canberra "believes all countries should respect sovereignty and the rule of law " and that they?"conveyed our concerns at senior levels to India."

Trade talks suspended?— Both countries have frozen free trade agreement negotiations as Canada has paused a fall trade mission:

• Indian?Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal stated?"we have given the trade dialogue with Canada a pause. We need to make sure that geopolitically and economically we are on the same page… we have had certain issues which are of serious concern."
• Before the public row, the office of international trade minister Mary Ng also announced it was indefinitely "postponing"?a trade mission to the country that Ottawa had slated for?October, the first that had been scheduled in a series of missions in the Indo-Pacific.
• Separately, another Indian official asserted that "there were certain political developments in Canada on which India has also raised its objection… for the time being [till]?these political developments are settled, we have paused the [trade] negotiations with Canada."
• A string of other government figures in New Delhi have since described the economic relationship in negative terms, with two describing Canada as "strategically" unimportant and that "bilateral trade is not significant."
• Jeff Nankivell, President of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, suggested that "there's a risk in these situations of arbitrary trade measures" with potential action on Canadian agricultural exports in particular.

What commentators think?— Experts have widely called the diplomatic crisis one long in the making with little room for optimism for the future:

• Harsh Pant, Professor at King’s College London, noted that "Trudeau has strong domestic reasons to raise the issue and so has India... There seems to be now a free fall in the relationship. The underlying issues have been there for a while and have not been resolved."
• Pant added that "the only thing that can be a saviour for the relations between the two countries is a free-trade agreement, which has also now been suspended. Therefore, the stakeholders for stabilising the relationship are no longer present."
• Mihir Sharma, Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, observed?"it is one thing to have the power to reach across continents and kill those you fear; it is another thing entirely to do it in a manner that insults your friends and the values they — and you, supposedly — cherish."
• Thomas Juneau, Associate Professor at the University of Ottawa, suggested that "in theory it would be nice to have more proactive and open support for the US on this, but realistically... Canada better get used to being alone, or more alone than in the past."
• Roland Paris, a former foreign policy advisor to Trudeau, stated that the killing "represents the most offensive and appalling form of political interference in a democracy that would parallel the behavior of some of the worst authoritarian leaders in the world."

Under Shadow of Intervention, Canada Grants Libya Flood Aid

Canada announced $5 million in humanitarian assistance in response to the catastrophic flooding in Libya?which has killed thousands and displaced countless more. In its wake, experts have said that the disaster was completely preventable. What went wrong, and how is Canada involved??

$5 million earmarked?— Ottawa has vowed assistance to meet?the needs of displaced Libyans:

• Minister of International Development Ahmed Hussen announced $5 million in aid to support humanitarian partners delivery of assistance, complementing?US$10 million already allocated through the UN Central Emergency Response Fund to?which Canada donates.
• Minister Hussen said?“Canadians are saddened by the loss of life and terrible destruction caused by the flooding in Libya... the Government of Canada will provide life-saving assistance on the ground in Libya.”
• Unprecedented rains brought by Storm Daniel caused two neglected dams to burst near the coastal city of Derna on last week with the UN since reporting?11,300 dead over the weekend and 10,000 missing.

Casualties of war?—?Derna has become a neglected city since the 2011 Arab spring uprisings

• Experts have long said that floods posed a significant danger to two dams meant to protect nearly 90,000 people in?northeast Libya and repeatedly called for immediate maintenance, but successive governments have neglected the issue.
• Libya has been divided between rival administrations and beset by militia conflict since NATO intervention?toppled Moammar Gadhafi in 2011 with PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibah heading the internationally recognized government in Tripoli and rival PM Ossama Hamad, heading the eastern administration in Benghazi.
• In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, Derna disintegrated into a hub for Islamist extremist groups and was bombarded by Egyptian airstrikes, ultimately being?taken by eastern forces in 2019 and has since not seen large investment or infrastructure maintenance.

Operations UNIFIER and MOBILE?— Canada’s response to Libya in 2011 has been followed by a significant legacy:

• Canada partially led the international response to the popular uprising in Libya against the Gadhafi government under?Operation UNIFIER and in March 2011 joined?NATO allies in enforcing an arms embargo, maintaining a no-fly zone and protecting civilians under Operation Unified Protector.
• Canada played a leading role through Operation MOBILE?in February 2011 which became a joint combat mission with air and maritime assets as Ottawa?contributed 635 personnel, seven jet fighters, two patrol aircrafts, two tankers, and two frigates.?
• According to GAC, “since 2011, Canada has contributed $54 million towards stabilization and support for Libya, including $34 million in humanitarian assistance" alongside funding for?the Deauville Partnership Middle East North Africa Transition Fund.
• Last month, Canada’s former ambassador to Libya Fathi Baja claimed that Moammar Ghadafi used Canadian banks to stash billions of dollars in secret cash stolen from the Libyan people that still sit?in Canadian financial institutions.
• Baja stated he did not inform the Canadian government earlier because he did not want the money to “fall into the wrong hands" as a spokesperson for Global Affairs Canada said it "cannot comment on frozen assets belonging to specific listed persons.”?

What commentators think — Observers have reflected on Canada’s role in Libya then and now:

• Scott Taylor,?editor of Esprit de Corps magazine,?reflected?in that “we were so focused on removing an autocrat that no one groomed Gaddafi’s successor. As a result, the Libyan people were plunged from the proverbial frying pan straight into the fire of anarchy.”
• Bob Rae, Canada’s Ambassador to the UN, said “what we bring to the table has to be engagement, a willingness to really listen carefully... in trying to make sure the global responses to these crises are more effective than they have been so far.”

WHAT THEY'RE SAYING

While both [Canada and India] don’t want a rupture in relations, they’re going to have trouble finding offramps after events of the last few days. Their relationship isn’t as resilient and foolproof as many would like it to be...?We’re not going to see the Western democracies try to remove India from their strategic calculus, especially in terms of countering China. The strategic convergences are too strong.

—?Michael Kugelman, Director, South Asia Institute,?Wilson Center

Current Canadian political leaders are not requesting the Canadian forces to deploy in peacekeeping, even though the Liberal government has promised to re-engage in UN peacekeeping in the past three elections. In fact, the number of uniformed peacekeepers deployed as a monthly average under the Liberal government is half the number deployed by the previous Conservative government...?Canada still seeks to build a rules-based international order, but it must do much more to support the centre of that order, the United Nations.

— Walter Dorn, Professor, Royal Military College

The strategic partnerships formed between western nations and India were originally founded on the premise of shared democratic values. As the world’s most populous country, with the fifth largest economy and second-largest military, India is still an invaluable partner to the West. But if India is diverging from these apparent shared principles, it’s essential to maintain the integrity of these partnerships by ensuring that Indian officials remain committed to democratic ideals and human rights.

—?Saira Bano, Assistant Professor, Thompson Rivers University

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