The Cesarewitch 2016

Spotlight on the Cesarewitch Handicap

The Cesarewitch Handicap is run over 2m2f on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course and is one of the most popular betting races at the latter end of the flat racing calendar. Over thirty runners usually go to post. The race is also referred to as the second leg of the autumn double. The “first leg” of the autumn double, the Cambridgeshire, was won by Brian Meehan’s Spark Plug (12/1).

Here are the trends and statistics on the race based on the last ten runnings.

Age (Win-Placed-Runners)

3-y-o: 1-2-12

4-y-o: 3-8-101

5-y-o: 0-6-71

6-y-o: 2-8-62

7-y-o: 2-5-50

8-y-o+: 2-1-31

Based on the last ten years, it is clear that being a five-year-old has been a negative. This trend does not bode well for: Fun Mac, Nakeeta, Mistiroc, Montaly, The Minch, Leah Freya, Starchitect, Moonmeister, Golden Spear and Always Resolute.

Weight (stone and pounds)

9-7 or more: 1-4-23

9-0 to 9-6: 2-8-71

8-7 to 8-13: 4-12-101

8-0 to 8-6: 2-5-96

7-7 to 7-13: 1-1-32

7-6 or less: 0-0-3

Ten of the last thirteen winners have shouldered 9-1 or less. That could possibly spell a negative for the top fifteen weights in the handicap and it may pay to concentrate on the bottom half of the field.

Ratings

Rated 99-109: 1-8-36

Rated 87-98: 8-17-184

Rated 76-86: 1-5-106

Eight of the last ten winners were rated 87 to 98.

Recent Form

Eight out of the last ten winners finished in the first four last time out. This is a significant negative for twenty of the thirty-six runners. It is a positive trend  however for: Fun Mac, Shrewd, Angel Gabrial, Nakeeta, Blue Rambler, First Mohican, Yorkidding, Montaly, Havana Beat, Life Less Ordinary, Leah Freya, The Cashel Man, Starchitect, Moonmeister, St Mitchel and Always Resolute.

Trainer Form

Mark Johnston (1-2-17) and Tony Martin (1-3-9) are two trainers with runners who have made the most impact in recent years.

Effect of the draw

Drawn 1-12: 6-17-120

Drawn 13-24: 3-9-120

Drawn: 25+: 1-5-87

Despite this race being run over a marathon distance the draw has come into play in the last ten years. The following horses appear to have an ideal draw:  Oriental Fox, Angel Gabrial, The Twisler, Blue Rambler, Mistiroc, Sea Of Heaven, The Minch, Life Less Ordinary, Modem, Leah Freya, The Cashel Man and Grumeti.

National Hunt Tendencies

Because this race is run over one of the longer trips on the flat then it naturally attracts some of the predominantly National Hunt stables. Seven of the last fourteen winners came from yards more famed for their jumping stars. Last year’s winner, Grumeti (50/1), trained by Alan King, is the most recent example.

Price

Double figure runners appear to be the ones to concentrate on with six of the last eight winners going off at 16/1 or more. Throw a 50/1 and a 66/1 into the mix and you have an idea how difficult it can be to find the winner. With only two leading fancies winning since 1993, the bookmakers are unsurprisingly keen on laying the first few in the betting.

Summary

Last year we managed to narrow the race down to two horses against the field. Those horses were Teak (50/1) and Grumeti (50/1). Grumeti nabbed the race by the shortest of heads to give 888sport readers a bumper payday.

Emulating that feat will be extremely difficult, but here is our attempt to narrow down the field to just a handful of picks.

Iain Jardine’s Nakeeta has the perfect profile for this race in terms of form. The five-year-old gelding has been running extremely well over this kind a distance since he was just touched off in the Chester Cup back in May. The polytrack did not suit the horse in the Northumberland Plate but he bounced straight back running three solid races thereafter. It is quite obvious that the Jardine team have put him away for a tilt at this race after a decent break away from the track.

If there is a runner to be found in the field that will be plugging on late through beaten horses it’s Alan King’s First Mohican. The eight-year-old has been plotted over both hurdles and the flat over recent seasons and that type of horse tends to do very well in this race. The best piece of form from the horse this season was a staying on fourth in the strongly run Summer Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. Hollie Doyle gets on well with this chestnut gelding who always gives it his all.

An interesting runner at a big price is Jim Goldie’s The Minch. The five-year-old caught the eye on his debut run at Aintree in the NH bumper back in April. The 100/1 unknown quantity scythed through the field late to finish a close third to Willie Mullins’ Bacardys. Three runs on the flat since have not exactly seen The Minch set the world alight but some positives could be taken out of the Queen Alexandra Stakes run where he finished a reasonably close eighth of eighteen over 2m 5f. Again this horse has the National Hunt profile that often comes into play in this race.