Certainty and Strategy
I work in a profession that promises answers to questions and solutions to problems. Often when clients don't have the capability or the capacity to do it themselves. In some cases, clients may not even know where to start or what to look at.
We sell our (potential) value based on well-crafted case studies, marketing collateral and 'best-practice' frameworks. We make big promises.
Today I listened to a podcast with a neurologist on certainty. He said that certainty is a feeling. That certainty is, in many ways, unrelated to any associated information/facts or underlying cognitive process. And this is why (e.g.) we see arguments on social media where the views of the combatants don't actually change, regardless of the information that is injected into the discussion. That the same piece of information can be used to "prove" countering points.
Bingo. We see that every day. All around us. Data being used. Data being misused. Data being abused.
Many leaders, experts and organisations talk about data-driven decisions or evidence-based decision-making. And the use of these terms is implied as a differentiator. And what do data-driven decisons look like in practice? - are we simply using that catchphrase to give a false sense of certainty ? It is easy to make the claim for data-driven decisions when we decide which data to include and exclude, how we choose to interpret and integrate the data, or the heuristic we overlay. Data-driven decisions may simply be another way of saying "put it in a graph and then we'll do it".
How do we know if our certainty is little more than a feeling? I asked myself:
- When was the last time my mind (view) was changed on a subject?
- When was the last time I had an idea, approach or fact corrected?
I felt uneasy. It doesn't happen enough. I need to be willing to approach situations with the mindset of "I am willing and ready to be proven deficient in this area".
And now I come to strategy. In my view, true strategy is a competition about:
- making sense of things - what things are more important, what things are less important
- coherent response (actions) to create/enhance value
Strategy isn't (just) a plan. Strategy isn't (just) about mountains of analysis, tables, charts and other data visualistions..
Strategy is about surveying and understanding what is out there and being able to generate the most powerful insights about what it means (from our unique position) and where we should go (next).
Confidence doesn't have to mean certainty. Confidence can coexist with uncertainty.