No Certainty, No Problem: Embracing Commitment in a World of Uncertainty

“Most people fail, not because of lack of desire, but, because of lack of commitment.” – Vince Lombardi

I see so many people looking for guarantees in all areas of their life before they are willing to make a commitment themselves and people advocating for getting all of the answers before starting down a path.

This can be seen in many aspects of both personal and professional life:

1. Delaying a career decision for the right job with the future path perfectly laid out
2. Pausing in a relationship for the timing to be right for marriage and kids
3. Waiting for the market to drop before investing in that fund
4. Hoping for others to tell you what area you should major in
5. Looking for a perfect plan before taking on a new adventure

These are just a few examples I can think of off the top of my head where a lack of a perfect picture creates an avoidance of commitment. The problem with this notion is that almost nothing in life is guaranteed and the best things in life require a level of faith in order to be attained.

There’s a fine balance between Due Diligence and Procrastination

I find the idea of having everything figured out before getting started is most often just fear wearing a mask of rational thought and logic. I’m not suggesting for people to make irrational or emotionally charged decisions however, I am advocating for taking the leap once due diligence has been done and trusting in the process as you move through it.

While the outcome of moving forward may not be guaranteed, those who fail to launch with decisions out of the fear of uncertainty often face some certain unpleasant consequences.

Missed Opportunities: Hesitation or delayed decision-making can result in missed opportunities. Research in organizational behavior suggests that companies that hesitate to innovate or enter new markets often lose their competitive edge to more agile competitors?(Christensen, 2014). This principle applies to individuals as well; studies show that individuals who delay or avoid taking action consistently due to uncertainty miss out on significant life and career opportunities.

Stunted Growth: Constant avoidance of uncertainty can lead to a lack of personal and professional development. A study in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (Tugade, 2004) found that individuals who engage in challenging tasks, despite the uncertainty of outcomes, tend to develop resilience and a broader skill set over time. The only way to develop these skills is by trying new things, making mistakes, then applying this new knowledge and confidence to the next objective.

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Increased Anxiety and Overthinking: The quest for certainty can lead to overthinking and increased anxiety, a concept supported by the analysis paralysis theory. Depression comes from thinking about the past and anxiety comes from worrying about the future (I’m oversimplifying to make a point). Not making decisions can lead to regret and overthinking about future outcomes and excessive deliberation leads to higher levels of stress and anxiety which ultimately clouds judgement and lowers performance.

Loss of Initiative and Creativity: A risk-averse mindset can stifle creativity and initiative. (Amabile, 1996) states in her componential theory of creativity that a willingness to take risks and embrace uncertainty is crucial for creative thinking. Overemphasis on certainty can suppress this willingness and thus limit creative potential. Initiative and creativity are not only a gift or natural talent, they can be improved through sustained effort and decreasing risk aversion slowly.

Weakened Decision-Making Skills: Excessive aversion to uncertainty can degrade decision-making abilities. Studies in decision theory suggest that decision-making is a skill that requires practice (Dane, 2007). Avoiding decisions due to uncertainty can lead to a deterioration of this skill, making future decisions even more challenging.

Regret and 'What Ifs': A life characterized by excessive caution and avoidance of risk can lead to regret. The number one regret of the dying according to the NIH is wishing they had the courage to live a life true to themselves, not what others expected of them. Living a life true to yourself will always have a level of uncertainty because there are so many aspects which others cannot provide answer for you and requires you to have faith in yourself, your direction, and your decisions.

How to Overcome

In a world filled with endless options, a paradox of choice exists. While it may seem counterintuitive that having more options would lead to a better outcome, the opposite is actually true. Let me explain.

Suppose you need to buy a vehicle so you go to the dealership to look at different models to fit a family of 4. Not only do you have to decide what brand of vehicle you want to buy, you also have to decide on whether you truly want a car or if an SUV, truck, or minivan would be a better fit instead. And within each of those categories you now have to decide on the size, trim, color (interior and exterior), and fuel type (gas, diesel, electric, hybrid). The list goes on and on and suddenly a relatively easy and exciting decision becomes difficult and daunting.

So how do we overcome this situation where commitment seems impossible and improve our decision making skills?

Develop a Growth Mindset: Adopt the belief that your abilities, including decision-making, can be developed over time. Research by Carol Dweck suggests that individuals with a growth mindset are more likely to embrace challenges and persist despite setbacks, which is crucial for decision-making under uncertainty.

Embrace Incremental Decision-Making: Break larger decisions into smaller steps. This approach, known as incremental decision-making, allows you to make progress by taking one step at a time, adjusting your course as you gather more information. It's like navigating through a foggy road by advancing slowly and using landmarks to guide your journey.

Practice Mindfulness and Stress Reduction: High stress levels can cloud judgment and impede decision-making. Practices like mindfulness and meditation can help manage stress and improve cognitive functions related to decision-making. Mindfulness encourages you to be present in the moment, which can enhance your ability to weigh options more objectively.

Learn from Past Decisions: Reflect on your previous decisions, both the successful and the not-so-successful ones. Analyze the process you went through, the information you used, and the outcome. This reflective practice, often used in professional learning environments, can provide valuable insights into your decision-making patterns and help you make better choices in the future.

Seek Diverse Perspectives: Consult with others to gain different viewpoints. People from different backgrounds or with different expertise can provide alternative perspectives that you might not have considered. This doesn't mean you should always decide by committee, but rather use the insights gathered to inform your decision-making process.

Set a Decision Deadline: Indecision can often be a result of not having a clear timeline. By setting a deadline for your decision, you create a sense of urgency that can help you focus and gather the most important information needed to make a decision.

Accept and Plan for Uncertainty: Recognize that no decision comes with absolute certainty. Scenario planning can be a useful tool here. It involves envisioning different outcomes (best case, worst case, and most likely case) and planning how to respond to each scenario. This can reduce the fear of the unknown and make you more confident in your decision-making.

Strengthen Your Risk Tolerance: Build your tolerance for risk by starting with smaller decisions where the stakes are not as high. As you become more comfortable making these smaller decisions, gradually increase the stakes. This practice can help desensitize the anxiety associated with uncertainty and prepare you for bigger, more impactful decisions.

Improving decision-making skills is a continuous process. It's about building confidence in your ability to handle the unknown and learning to navigate the balance between risk and reward. With practice and the right strategies, you can become more adept at making decisions and committing to them, even when you don't have all the information at hand.

Why it Matters

Committing to something before knowing the full picture or the end result can seem like jumping into a pool without knowing how deep the water is (or if you’re like me, not knowing if there are sharks in the water…).

That said, learning to trust yourself in your decision making abilities and going all in with your commitment has some pretty incredible outcomes if you stick with it.

First, an initial commitment acts as a catalyst for action. It propels individuals beyond the inertia of planning and indecision, allowing them to transition from contemplation to tangible action. This is particularly vital when the most formidable challenge is just getting started in most cases. Action follows commitment, not the other way around. If you never commit fully, you’re level of action will be seriously decreased which ultimately translates to reduced results long term.

Committing without a complete overview of the path resembles the process of creating art without a clear visual reference. It may seem daunting, yet each stroke of the brush reinforces confidence. This analogy underscores the concept that each step taken in the face of uncertainty fortifies an individual's confidence in their capacity to navigate and overcome future challenges. Increased resilience allows for greater opportunities for success.

Commitment also stimulates creativity and adaptability. Uncertainty necessitates on-the-spot thinking, adaptability, and innovative thinking which is seriously lacking in today’s day and age. Our technology and systems tell us daily what to do and how to do it, slowly degrading our natural ability to creatively solve problems on our feet. Engaging in this process fosters a dynamic environment where creativity and adaptability are not just beneficial but essential for progression.

Finally, improved decision making and commitment helps to uncover opportunities and create momentum in our life. Committing to a decision without full information can unveil opportunities and rewards that might remain concealed if one waits for complete certainty. The process of a snowball increasing in size as it rolls downhill illustrates the concept of building momentum. It also sets a sequence of events in motion, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of progress. This momentum can be instrumental in overcoming obstacles and maintaining a forward trajectory, even in the face of challenges.

Final Thoughts

We all have a need for a level of certainty and uncertainty however, many people work so hard to find a high level of certainty due to a typically unfounded fear of something going wrong. Typically, when you dig deep on the fear, it ends up being an unexplained and irrational which is really based on nothing. The worst cases scenario is typically never as bad as we think it’s going to be and the best case scenario is often much better than we expect.

If nothing else, being in the arena making mistakes and getting beat up and bruised at times from your decisions is always better than sitting in the stands criticizing those who are actually in the arena giving it a shot.

So go out there, trust yourself in your decision making abilities, and commit to the things you want to do but have been holding off from doing do to a lack of courage. It’ll either work out or you’ll be left with a good story to tell your kids one day.

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Be Great,

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Ace

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Works Cited

Amabile, T. M. (1996). Creativity in context: Update to the social psychology of creativity. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.

Christensen, C. M. (2014). The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.

Dane, E. &. (2007). Exploring intuition and its role in managerial decision-making. Academy of Management Review, 32(1), 33-54.

Tugade, M. M. (2004). Resilient individuals use positive emotions to bounce back from negative emotional experiences. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 86(2), 320.

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