CEO Insights for What's Ahead | 8.9.23
The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence? improved to 48 in Q3 2023, up from 42 in Q2. (A reading below 50 reflects more negative than positive responses.)
Recession fears remain: Despite the brighter outlook, most CEOs still anticipate an economic downturn ahead. In Q3, 84 percent report that they are preparing for a US recession over the next 12–18 months, compared to 93 percent in Q2.
That said, the vast majority of CEOs continue to expect a short and shallow US recession, with just 4 percent now expecting a deep US recession with major global spillovers—down from a high of 13 percent in Q4 2022. Meanwhile, the proportion of CEOs expecting no recession at all climbed steadily from 2 percent in Q4 2022 to 17 percent in the latest survey.
Still hiring—and paying up:?Attracting qualified workers remains difficult for the majority of companies: 74 percent of CEOs plan to raise wages by more than 3 percent over the next year. The competition for talent is fierce: 40 percent of CEOs expect to ramp up hiring in the next 12 months, and another 40 percent are maintaining the size of their workforce—a sign of labor hoarding in an extremely tight labor market.
In a new episode of?CEO Perspectives, Arvind Krishna , Chairman and CEO of IBM , discusses the opportunities and challenges facing companies at a time of rapid acceleration in artificial intelligence. Krishna weighs in on the criteria for using AI responsibly, gaining the trust of all stakeholders, leading through disruption, and more.
Why it matters:?As Krishna emphasizes, transparency and accountability should go hand in hand and be integrated into the DNA of companies’ business models. Heightening the urgency is that companies are increasingly having to address the opportunities and challenges brought about by the AI revolution.
Key questions to ask:?Companies are still learning how to responsibly use AI and other technology in many areas of their businesses. Krishna recommends companies ask several critical questions, including: What data did you use to train an AI model? How will you use your clients’ data, both internally and externally? And are there any biases—including those related to gender or age—in the data?
Along with the IBM team, Krishna is a recipient of our 2023?Distinguished Leadership Awards?from the Committee for Economic Development, the public policy center of The Conference Board (CED).
As businesses face an economy with elevated inflation and recession risk, many are—or soon will be—cutting costs. But cost-cutting measures are hurting already declining employee well-being.
By the numbers:
The case against layoffs:?Despite relieving financial burdens temporarily, layoffs affect organizations negatively in many ways, some of which can be profound and lasting. They often result in negative outcomes such as increased voluntary turnover; loss of skills, learning, productivity, and innovation; low employee morale; and reputational risks relating to brand.
Striking a balance:?Perhaps the most vexing set of competing objectives HR leaders are currently grappling with is the need to cut costs while also attempting to address employee well-being, fill open positions, and retain current workers. Some organizations are experimenting with novel strategies to help resolve these tensions, including considering or implementing a four-day workweek or allowing teams to determine their own schedules.
Are you a Chief Human Resources Officer, Chief People Officer, or Chief Human Capital Officer??Take our Q3 CHRO Confidence survey today.
领英推荐
Marketing and communications professionals are rapidly embracing and experimenting with artificial intelligence—especially generative AI—in their work.
Rapid adoption:?We found that 87 percent of marketers and 85 percent of communicators have used AI or experimented with at least one application of AI tools. A majority have incorporated AI into their regular workflow: our survey of 287 respondents found that 68 percent in marketing and 60 percent in communications are now using AI at least “sometimes” in their daily work.
Higher productivity—and creativity??For these professionals, AI currently serves primarily as a productivity tool, freeing up time for strategy and ideation. They’re nearly unanimous in seeing more benefits ahead: 82 percent expect productivity will improve with the further adoption of AI—compared to just 4 percent expecting productivity to deteriorate.
Marketers and communicators are more divided on the long-term impact of AI in their fields. Roughly four in ten expect work quality and creativity to improve, compared to some three in ten expecting deterioration in both areas. Against this promise, marketers and communicators are largely pessimistic on how AI will impact job availability.
Produced with Ragan Communications and PR Daily
QUOTABLE: Climate Change and Business
“By building environmental and social considerations into your strategic business plan, your company is operating not only in the long-term interests of its shareholders but also in the long-term interests of its other stakeholders, such as customers, employees, society at large, and the natural environment. These considerations, in turn, will play out in three areas: the marketplace, the workplace, and the public space.”
—? Paul Washington , Executive Director of The Conference Board ESG Center. He joined?CEO Perspectives?to discuss the implications of climate change for companies.
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