Welcome to the Century Weekly Market Update! We’re excited to bring you the latest news and insights from the supply chain and logistics industry over the past week.
Our weekly market update?features a dedicated section on emerging industry trends and a report specifically focused on the frequency and impact of port omissions during blank sailings. These updates provide valuable insights to help supply chain decision makers navigate potential disruptions, optimize their supply chains, and stay informed about the latest industry developments.
Last week, Trans-Pacific freight rates showed signs of stabilization, with some downward pressure due to easing volumes and significant overcapacity in the market. The West Coast's import market share rebounded with a labor agreement and favorable factors, while freight broker Convoy halted operations amidst a pending transition. Additionally, CMA CGM is investing $600 million in two new container terminals on the US East Coast.?
At Century, we're committed to helping our customers stay a step ahead in these rapidly changing market conditions. Our team of experts are dedicated to providing comprehensive and timely insights to help you make informed decisions and stay competitive.
Emerging Industry Trends
West Coast's Import Market Share Rebounds with Labor Agreement and Favorable Factors
After hitting an eight-month low in July, the West Coast's share of US imports from Asia saw a slight increase in September, following a strong increase in August.
The labor uncertainties that plagued the West Coast for fifteen months came to an end in August when the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) ratified a new contract with waterfront employers. This has contributed to the return of cargo to the West Coast.
Shippers are now closely watching two other developments that could benefit the West Coast: the draft limitations at the Panama Canal, which have reduced vessel capacity on all-water shipments to the East Coast, and the upcoming longshore contract negotiations on the East Coast.
The West Coast's share of Asian imports has fluctuated throughout the year, but it has recovered to 57.9% in September, according to PIERS.
Port and terminal sources are confident that the increase in the West Coast's market share will continue, citing improved operational indicators and port fluidity. The Port of Los Angeles has seen retailers returning an increasing share of discretionary cargo to the West Coast.
Freight Rate Peaks and Carrier Profits: Limited Inflationary Impact on Global Trade
During the freight rate peak in 2021-2022, carriers' high profitability was criticized as a driver of inflation.
Freight rates reached over 200% higher than the comparative period in 2019, and carriers' combined profits in 2021 and 2022 exceeded $400 billion.
However, when considering the value of goods being moved, carriers' profits are relatively small and inconsequential, even for merchandise primarily shipped in containers.
Global average inflation in consumer prices was 4.7% in 2021 and increased to 8.7% in 2022.
Comparing carriers' profits as a share of global merchandise trade, their contribution to inflation has been minimal, with a cumulative effect of 0.9% over the period of 2020-2022.
The recent drop in carrier profits in 2023 is expected to have a deflationary impact on world inflation.
Ship Recycling Industry Move Towards a Sustainable Future
Ship recycling yards are increasingly implementing the Hong Kong Convention (HKC), a global regulatory framework for safe and environmentally sound ship recycling.
Most shipyards in India are now fully compliant with the HKC, demonstrating progress in meeting international standards.
Bangladesh has four shipyards that have received HKC approval, indicating a positive momentum towards compliance in the country's ship recycling industry.
Efforts are underway in Pakistan to upgrade recycling yards to conform to the requirements of the HKC, although it remains uncertain if they can meet the standards by the HKC's enforcement deadline in 2025.
The industry recognizes the need for a global ship recycling permit that all relevant bodies can adhere to, aiming to ensure a more sustainable and transparent ship recycling industry worldwide.
Weekly Blank Sailings Report
Century’s Blank Sailings Report for the week of October 16th – October 22nd. Discover the latest insights on the current trend of blank sailings through the most up-to-date carrier data direct from Century.?
Last week saw a total of 539 port omissions during blank sailings, a 2.4% decrease compared to the week prior.
Ningbo recorded the highest amount of port omissions last week with 57, followed by Shanghai with 40 and Singapore with 33.
Other ports with notably high omissions last week were Busan with 30, Hong Kong with 24, and Kaohsiung with 21 omissions.
The Port of Shanghai recorded the biggest W/W decrease in port omissions, falling 47.4%.
Looking towards the coming weeks, Century’s data shows a 16.5% decrease in currently scheduled blank sailings for week 44, with a further decrease in preliminarily scheduled blank sailings for weeks 45 and 46, as carriers look to adjust their strategies post-China’s Golden Week.
Next week’s preliminary data shows notable declines in port omissions to be expected at ports in Ningbo, Shekou, Hong Kong, Jakarta, Busan, Kaohsiung, Laem Chabang, and Veracruz.
Port omissions data for the most frequently omitted ports during week 43?can be found in the table below:?
Our full Blank Sailings Report for the week of October 16th – October 22nd below provides a full list of every current scheduled port omission from Week 43 to Week 52 as of October 24th, 2023. The second tab breaks down this data into an easy-to-read table which shows port omissions by each location per week so you can see which locations are being omitted the most and which locations are experiencing the sharpest increase in port omissions.
Trans-Pacific Freight Rates Show Signs of Stabilization
Overall freight rates in the ex-Asia ocean market were stable last week, with some downward pressure due to easing volumes and significant overcapacity in the market.?
Rates from China/East Asia to the US East Coast decreased 3% W/W to US$ 2,141.
Rates from China/East Asia to the US West Coast decreased 3% W/W to US$ 1,499.?
Freight rates from China/East Asia to Northern Europe have seen a small recovery from last week, ticking up by 3% W/W to US$ 978, however, still 1.8% lower M/M.?
Rates from China/East Asia to Southern Europe have recorded a seventh consecutive week of decline, falling by 5% W/W to US$ 1,400.?
Port of Rotterdam Reports Declining Container Volume for Third Consecutive Quarter
Port of Rotterdam reports third consecutive quarter of negative growth, with throughput down 7.2% year over year to 10.2 million TEUs in the first nine months of 2023.
Containerized imports at Rotterdam decline by 8% year over year, with nearly 500,000 fewer TEUs handled, while exports decrease by 6.4% (334,000 TEUs).
Factors such as rising inflation, limited global economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and a shift towards spending on services impact the European markets and contribute to the lower throughput figures.
Container volume from China to North Europe shows a marginal decline of 0.5% year over year from January to August, totaling 10.6 million TEUs.
Despite expected improvement in year-over-year demand growth, it may not be enough to surpass pre-pandemic volume levels recorded in 2019, according to industry experts.
Port Congestion and Landside Delays Tighten Ro/Ro Capacity in Europe, Impacting Vehicle Imports
European and Mediterranean ports are experiencing congestion and landside delays, further tightening already limited roll-on/roll-off (ro/ro) capacity.
Delays have resulted in a reduction of effective vessel capacity by 5% to 10%, affecting both deep-sea and short-sea carriers, according to Neptune Lines CEO Craig Jasienski.
Manufacturers entering Europe's automobile market are considering alternative ports, such as Koper, Slovenia, and Piraeus, Greece, due to space constraints at primary terminals.
The shortage of specialized trucking labor is causing additional delays in transporting vehicles from ports, with a lack of trucks and drivers in the industry.
Despite the congestion challenges, global light vehicle sales have surged since the COVID-19 pandemic, with projections of reaching nearly 83.6 million units by the end of 2023.
Neptune Lines is expanding its fleet and developing a network of terminals to accommodate the growing demand and provide logistics services for finished vehicle imports.
Prince Rupert to Build Large Export Transload Facility to Enhance Import-Export Balance
The Port of Prince Rupert is investing in the construction of a rail-to-container transloading facility on Ridley Island, aiming to increase its export capacity for agricultural, forestry, and resin products.
The Ridley Island Export Logistics Project (RIELP) will significantly expand the port's capabilities, with a transloading capacity of 400,000 TEUs per year. The project is expected to be completed by Q3 2026.
To facilitate this expansion, Ray-Mont Logistics will take charge of developing and operating the facility, replacing their existing temporary transloading facility on Ridley Island.
With a substantial investment of C$750 million, the project's primary objective is to achieve a more balanced import-export mix and reduce dependency on imports, thereby fostering increased export volumes.
Additionally, the project includes the development of a road-rail utility corridor, connecting the new transload facility with the Fairview Container Terminal. This direct access from the Canadian National Railway network will optimize logistical operations.
Hapag-Lloyd Expands into Brazil's Cabotage Market with Norcoast Joint Venture
Hapag-Lloyd is forming a joint venture called Norcoast with Brazilian shipping group Norsul to enter Brazil's feeder service and cabotage trade.
The move is expected to increase competition and provide more choices for forwarders and shippers, potentially leading to lower freight rates.
Hapag-Lloyd joins major container lines like Maersk, CMA CGM, and MSC in Brazil's domestic container market.
Brazil's cabotage law changes in 2024 will enable domestic shipping companies to charter foreign vessels for domestic services.
US Truckload Market: Shippers' Concerns Prevent Further Price Decline, Capacity Reduction Expected
Shippers' concerns about subpar service and carrier failures are preventing spot prices in the US truckload market from falling further in 2023 and early 2024.
Shippers are becoming more sensitive to pricing as more carriers exit the business and those offering low rates underperform.
Shippers are accepting higher rates to move their freight after losing carriers or brokers, but it hasn't sparked a significant rebound in average spot market pricing.
The truckload sector still has enough excess capacity to dampen the impact of pricing sensitivities.
According to David Jackson, the president and CEO of Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, he is anticipating notable pricing improvements in 2024. He expects positive rate pressure to arise during the next bid season, which is scheduled to commence in early 2024.
CMA CGM's $600 Million Investment in US East Coast Terminals Signals Shift in Trade Focus
CMA CGM is investing $600 million in two new container terminals on the US East Coast, anticipating a shift in US importers' focus from China to India and Southeast Asia.
The acquisition of the Port Liberty terminals at the Port of New York and New Jersey will provide CMA CGM with a "home" that avoids berth delays experienced during the pandemic.
CMA CGM plans to start moving into its Staten Island, NY, terminal sooner, while the Bayonne, NJ, terminal is being expanded to accommodate ultra-large container vessels.
The company aims to consolidate most of its liner services into one home and expects to shift some services to the New York container terminal by the end of the year.
CMA CGM believes that US ports need to improve their capacity to handle larger ships and match the capabilities of European and Chinese ports, as the source of imports shifts away from China towards countries like India and Vietnam.
Port of Virginia Drives 4 Million Square Feet of Industrial Warehousing in Norfolk, Attracting Major Investors
The Port of Virginia has driven over 4 million square feet of new industrial warehousing in Norfolk this year, attracting developers due to modernization projects and efficient cargo handling.
Pre-pandemic, the region's annual delivery of built-to-suit warehouses averaged around 400,000 square feet, but it has significantly increased to 4.6 million square feet this year.
Investor appetite is strong, driven by companies seeking to diversify their supply chains and have a backup port option.
The Port of Virginia's modernization efforts have contributed to port-centric development and increased Virginia's market share among North American ports.
Warehouse investments near the port have totaled over $6 billion in the last three years, with major investors including Amazon and Lowe's.
India Extends Sugar Export Restrictions, Tightening Global Market
India has extended its export restrictions on sugar to protect domestic supplies, tightening the global market and potentially impacting the food industry.
The quota system implemented in 2022-23 limited sugar exports to around 6 million tons due to reduced production caused by late rains.
Raw sugar futures have reached their highest level since 2011, driven by concerns about limited supplies from India and Thailand.
The export ban may stabilize domestic sugar prices in India but could pose challenges for global manufacturers of beverages, chocolate, and baked goods.
India's sugar production is expected to decrease by 3.4% to 31.68 million tons in the current year.
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