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Welcome to the Century Weekly Market Update! We’re excited to bring you the latest news and insights from the supply chain and logistics industry over the past week.

Our weekly market update?features a dedicated section on emerging industry trends and a report specifically focused on the frequency and impact of port omissions during blank sailings. These updates provide valuable insights to help supply chain decision makers navigate potential disruptions, optimize their supply chains, and stay informed about the latest industry developments.

Last week, the global container freight index decreased slightly W/W, dropping by 1%. CMA CGM reversed its plan to resume the India – US Suez Canal route, Canada’s postal workers initiated a strike, and the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) walked away from contract talks with the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) again due to disagreement on automation. Additionally, Mexico’s Port of Progreso is set for expansion to boost Gulf Coast cargo capacity.

At Century, we're committed to helping our customers stay a step ahead in these rapidly changing market conditions. Our team of experts are dedicated to providing comprehensive and timely insights to help you make informed decisions and stay competitive.

Emerging Industry Trends:?

Consistency Outweighing Top Rankings in Global Trade Lanes

Carriers consistently ranking within the top five in terms of reliability across multiple trade lanes are seen as more dependable than those with intermittent first-place rankings.
Reliability assessments now focus on carriers’ consistent presence in the top three or five spots, rather than frequent single-lane, first-place finishes.
Sea Intelligence developed a composite ranking system to evaluate carriers' overall reliability, assigning scores from 1.0 for first place down to 0.1 for tenth, to provide a clearer measure of consistent performance over time and to avoid misleading results that may arise from only looking at top rankings on individual trade lanes.
From January to September 2024, Maersk led in reliability, achieving a top-three ranking in 44% of trade lanes, followed closely by ZIM and CMA CGM.

Trucking Spot and Contract Rate Increases Expected Through 2025

The US trucking industry's rate recession is ending, with spot truckload rates surpassing last year's prices and expected to rise by low double-digit percentages by late 2025.
Market experts predict that dry-van spot rates could increase by 12% to 15% Y/Y by the fourth quarter of 2025, with contract rates expected to follow at a slower pace.
Factors driving this growth include gradual improvements in the US freight economy and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, alongside a recovery in manufacturing and housing sectors.
The projected spot rate increase by late 2025 could raise the primary US long-haul truckload producer price index by 9% to 12%, marking a notable recovery from the recent rate recession.
Potential disruptions, such as trade tariffs and a possible East and Gulf coast port strike in early 2025, could cause import scheduling shifts, boosting freight demand in the first quarter and tightening capacity.
Contract rates, which traditionally lag behind spot rates, are already trending slightly higher, with projected increases driven by capacity stabilization and the need to maintain fleet size amidst declining new truck orders.

Rising Freight Rates and Geopolitical Challenges Shape Hapag-Lloyd's Outlook

Hapag-Lloyd raised its financial forecast as rising demand and increased freight rates highlight a new trend of higher shipping costs, though volatile rates and geopolitical uncertainties pose risks.
Due to the on-going security risks in the Red Sea, container ships are taking longer routes, leading to vessel shortages and port congestion, which has contributed to a significant rise in freight rates.
The company reported a 23% increase in average freight rates for Q3 2024, driven by strong demand on Transpacific and Far East routes, while the Middle East region saw a decrease due to extended transit times.
Early seasonal shipping due to the anticipated US dockworkers strike boosted Q3 volumes and helped drive a 28% increase in revenue, totaling €5.26 billion.
In response to demand and environmental goals, Hapag-Lloyd is commissioning 24 new ships to modernize and decarbonize its fleet, aligning with long-term sustainability and capacity needs.
Despite these gains, the company remains cautious, projecting 2024 full-year EBITDA between €4.2 to €4.6 billion and EBIT between €2.2 to €2.6 billion amid ongoing supply chain challenges.

Weekly Blank Sailings Report:?

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Century’s Blank Sailings Report for the week of November 11th – November 17th. Discover the latest insights on the current trend of blank sailings through the most up-to-date carrier data direct from Century.

Last week saw a total of 786 port omissions, a 16% increase compared to the week prior.
Ningbo recorded the highest amount of port omissions last week with 88, followed by Shanghai with 85 and Singapore with 50.
Other ports with notably high omissions last week were Hong Kong with 43 and Shekou with 32.
Manzanillo, MX and Hong Kong saw significant increases in blank sailings W/W, increasing by 600% (went from single to double digit number of blanks) and 186% respectively.
Looking towards the coming weeks, Century’s data shows a 1% decrease in currently scheduled blank sailings for week 47.
Next week’s preliminary data shows notable increases in Busan.

Port omissions data for the most frequently omitted ports during week 46 can be found in the table below:

Our?full Blank Sailings Report for the week of November 11th – November 17th below provides a full list of every current scheduled port omission from Week 46 to Week 52 as of November 18th, 2024. The second tab breaks down this data into an easy-to-read table which shows port omissions by?each location per week so you can see which locations are being omitted the most and which locations are experiencing the sharpest increase in port omissions.

Century consistently strives to enhance customer satisfaction by proactively addressing challenges in the shipping process. In our commitment to securing space for our valued customers amidst ongoing carrier constraints, our dedicated operators diligently undertake additional measures. After working through meticulous analysis of Carrier Booking and the Actual Shipped Ratio, we found that our teams are currently, on average, making two carrier booking requests per container in order to help ensure our customers' cargo flows as smoothly as possible.

Click here to DOWNLOAD the full Week 46 Blank Sailings Report

Week in Review:?

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Global Container Freight Index Falls Slightly W/W

The Global Container Freight Index rose this week with this week’s rates increasing by 1% W/W to US$ 3,612.
China/East Asia to North America East Coast rates dropped by 1% W/W to US$ 5,395.
China/East Asia to North America West Coast rates increased by 3% W/W to US$ 5,345.
All trade Trans-Suez routes saw rate increases this week.

CMA CGM Navigates Volatile Routes and Rate Adjustments on India-US Shipping Lane

CMA CGM reversed its plan to resume the India-US Indamex service via the Suez Canal, opting to continue around the Cape of Good Hope due to Red Sea security risks.
The Suez route continues to be too volatile for commercial shipping, with other carriers like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd also avoiding it.
The Cape route extends transit times to 35-40 days compared to 31 days via Suez, impacting India-US trade timelines.
CMA CGM introduced a US$ 1,500 peak season surcharge for India-US East and Gulf Coast shipments starting on December 5th to address rate volatility.
India-US East Coast spot rates have declined, with recent quotes at US$ 2,400 per FEU, reflecting a downturn in demand despite the surcharge.
The Indamex network remains vital for India-US exporters, underscoring the need for stable, secure trade routes amidst fluctuating rates.

Automation Tensions and Strike Threats Disrupt East and Gulf Coast Port Labor Negotiations

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) walked away from contract talks on November 12th, with the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) due to a proposal allowing semi-automated equipment at ports, which the union argues could eliminate jobs.
Automation remains a major sticking point, with ILA leadership demanding a complete ban on automated machinery and calling the USMX’s proposal a renewed attempt to cut ILA jobs.
Failure to resolve this issue could lead to another strike across East and Gulf Coast ports, potentially impacting ports from Maine to Texas by January 15, 2025.
The USMX argues that controlled technology use would improve efficiency, safety, and supply chain capacity without cutting jobs, while the ILA sees automation as a risk to its workforce’s future.
Importers are bracing for further disruption, with many planning to increase shipments in November and December to avoid potential delays from another strike in January.

?Canada Forces Seaports to Resume Operations Amid Lockouts

The Canadian government invoked binding arbitration to end lockouts at major ports, including Montreal, Quebec, and British Columbia, in a bid to stabilize operations and mitigate economic impacts.
Labor Minister Steven MacKinnon directed the Canada Industrial Relations Board to enforce a resumption of port activities, citing the shutdowns' daily toll of approximately C$1.3 billion on the Canadian economy.
The intervention aims to protect Canada's supply chain, prevent job losses, and safeguard Canada’s global trade reputation, which was threatened as companies began rerouting shipments and looking for alternative suppliers.
The port closures led to backlogs and congestion, with some shipping companies, including Maersk, redirecting vessels to alternative ports, adding strain to logistics and increasing costs.
Sectors particularly affected by the shutdowns include retail, agriculture, and manufacturing, with reports of potential shortages in critical items like salt for clean drinking water and parts for Canadian automakers.

?Canada’s Postal Workers Strike Halts Mail Amid Holiday Season

Canada’s postal workers initiated a strike on November 15th, after a year of failed contract negotiations, suspending almost all mail and parcel handling nationwide just before the busy holiday season.
The strike by tens of thousands of unionized workers will disrupt millions of households and businesses, with the impact particularly severe in remote areas, as Canada Post operations are shut down until a resolution is reached.
The strike adds to a series of recent labor disputes affecting Canada’s supply chains, including at ports and railroads, further pressuring the country's logistics infrastructure.
Canada Post’s recent offer of an 11.5% wage increase over four years, inflation protections, and enhanced leave was rejected by the union, which seeks wage adjustments tied to inflation and improved benefits.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may face calls to use back-to-work legislation, although he may struggle to secure the necessary legislative support.

Panama Canal Authority Seeks Funding for Land Bridge and Water Projects

The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) is pursuing US$ 1.2 billion to US$ 1.4 billion in funding to develop a land bridge across Panama for cargo that can’t transit the canal, aiming to boost container capacity by an additional 5 million units by 2045.
The proposed land route would provide an alternative for vessels too large for the canal, helping to avoid delays from climate-related disruptions.
The canal’s reliance on rainfall for its water supply has made it vulnerable to drought, prompting the ACP to propose the US$ 1.6 billion Indio River reservoir project to increase water availability and support more transits, though local community approval is pending.
Although there was a drop in traffic in 2024, the canal still achieved a record net income of US$ 3.45 billion, with plans to increase transits by 26.5% to meet rising demand.

West Coast Port Congestion and Rail Delays Prompt New Shipping Strategies

Increased container volumes at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, driven by peak season demand and labor concerns at East and Gulf Coast ports, have led to higher rail dwell times and congestion challenges.
Rail dwell times have reached approximately four days at Long Beach and eight days at Los Angeles, exceeding the typical two to four-day benchmark needed for fluid movement.
Rail operators like BNSF and Union Pacific are implementing temporary solutions, such as staging yards and coordinated container flows, to help manage the surge in demand and increase capacity for international cargo.
Shippers are adapting by using cross-dock facilities to expedite cargo processing, though this adds costs and complexity, and some are opting for alternative routes via Mexican and Canadian ports.
Other shippers are shifting to air freight for high-value goods or using trucks for inland distribution to bypass rail delays, taking advantage of the current surplus of truck capacity in North America.

?Port of Long Beach Sets Record as Cargo Diverted from East Coast

The Port of Long Beach handled nearly 1 million containers in October, a new record fueled by importers diverting shipments from the East and Gulf Coasts due to labor disputes and anticipated tariff increases.
Import volumes surged as companies moved goods early, anticipating potential tariffs under US President-elect Donald Trump, and potential strikes in January 2025.
Total cargo volume rose 30.7% Y/Y, with loaded imports up 34.2% and exports up 25.3%, reflecting strong demand across categories.
Port of Long Beach CEO expects high cargo volumes to continue through the end of the year due to robust consumer demand and uncertainty in East Coast port negotiations.

Mexico’s Port of Progreso Set for Expansion to Boost Gulf Coast Cargo Capacity

Mexican President announced plans to expand the Port of Progreso, aiming to transform it into a deep-sea port capable of handling larger vessels and increasing cargo flow on Mexico’s Gulf Coast.
The project includes dredging to deepen and widen the port's channel, expanding it from a width of 492 feet and depth of 36 feet to 500 feet and 47 feet, enabling accommodation of larger vessels and increased cargo volumes.
An 80-hectare (almost 200 acres) area will be developed as part of the expansion, and a new rail link will connect the port to the Maya Train, facilitating inland cargo movement across the Yucatan Peninsula with a projected two-year timeline for completion.
The A.P. Moller-Maersk terminal at Progreso, which handled around 22 ships and processed over 51,000 TEUs in the first half of the year, is expected to see increased activity with this upgrade.
Progreso’s expansion is intended to alleviate congestion in Mexico’s other container gateways, such as Ensenada and Lazaro Cardenas, where delays have reached up to 22 days due to rising cargo volumes.

?Surface Transportation Board Criticizes Union Pacific Over Arizona Rail Project Delays

The Surface Transportation Board (STB) reprimanded Union Pacific (UP) for inadequate cooperation in its request to build a 6-mile rail line, the Pecos Industrial Rail Access Train Extension (PIRATE), in Arizona, citing issues with their submissions and project transparency.
The STB’s review was halted indefinitely due to findings that UP may have engaged in “anticipatory demolition” along the proposed route, potentially damaging archaeological and historic sites.
UP has been ordered to submit additional documents and clarify privilege claims by November 29th, 2024, with a further deadline of December 16th, 2024, for comments from all interested parties and responses by January 13th, 2025.
STB Chairman expressed frustration with UP’s responses, emphasizing that UP’s actions had caused the project’s delay and stating that sacred lands will be protected through thorough investigation.
Arizona congressional members had previously urged the STB to prioritize the PIRATE project, but the board insists on addressing environmental and historical concerns fully before moving forward.